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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good to see you post again Quicksilver, I was only wandering the other day how quite you had been on the model thread! I take it nothing about this winter has really come as a suprise to you mate. Any thoughts on the the final 3rd?

We'll probably get a sleety northerly in April knowing our luck, followed by the 'if only it was winter' posts. We will see a cold winter soon I suspect but I don't think luck will be on our side this year. November was actually quite blocked as well but it's as if someone just flicked a switch come winter...

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
10 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Colder in Florida than UK!

Strange, what's going on with in the World weather wise?

Parts of Florida, esp the more Northern parts, are prone to short cold snaps most Winters. The South onlyoccasional Winters, so the current Miami spell is much less frequent occurence, according to sources.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Colder in Florida than UK!

Strange, what's going on with in the World weather wise?

"Don't worry, it is just a hoax!" 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Colder in Florida than UK!

Strange, what's going on with the World weather wise?

Cold isn't unheard of in Florida. Especially northern parts of the state. Tallahassee's record low is -19C would you believe. Obviously in tropical Miami where coconuts grow it's more rare but even here frost has been recorded in the past & snow falling but not settling. Orlando has experienced settling snow in the past. The only place in the contiguous US never to record an air frost has been Key West in the far SW of Florida.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just for good measure - how about a full house of crapness completed by February and March.

 

 

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image.png

Thanks weather gods!  You have to laugh really!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

We get day after day of crap charts and mild muck then every now and then we get a couple of models that give us a few chinks of light to get us all interested again and then the very next day it’s all doom n gloom again as the mild damp crap all comes flying back in.

surely at some point during February we will get a break and something to get us all interested again, tbh we only need a cold blast with a decent amount of snow and this really shocking autumn will be put to the back of the mind

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
14 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

We get day after day of crap charts and mild muck then every now and then we get a couple of models that give us a few chinks of light to get us all interested again and then the very next day it’s all doom n gloom again as the mild damp crap all comes flying back in.

surely at some point during February we will get a break and something to get us all interested again, tbh we only need a cold blast with a decent amount of snow and this really shocking autumn will be put to the back of the mind

It makes me think about the law of Averages and the odds. This has to be unbelievably bad luck or something very drastic is happening to our weather that even though we get favourable synoptics and background signals, somehow it defies these signals and dross endures. At some Point therefore, it has to break.... Surely??

What's the longest pattern we have been stuck in and what were the underlying reasons for this?

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I posted a few days ago, quite right those wanting cold and snow are bemoaning this winter so far.. and as I pointed out, we have been here so many times before in winters since 87/88, we've had whole winters equally devoid of anything especially cold or snowy, many have brought no days with snow cover to many parts of the south at least, and for the north including here, just the odd morning or two.. 

Winter 88/89, 89/90, 91/92, 97/98, 99/00, 06/07, 07/08, 13/14, 15/16, 16/17 and last year, all equally devoid of much cold or snow.. we have been drawn a very short straw since 12/13 it seems, and its this factor more than anything that is grating people probably this year more than any, as apart for the late Feb 2018 / early March cold spell, we have had nothing especially cold or snowy (not just a one day event as happened in Dec 17..), since March 2013, that's 7 long years now... patience comes to those who wait, but many people's patience is now at an all time low.. 

Not ruling out a potent cold spell with some snow before March is out (note I am saying March not February), as March can pack a cold snowy punch as potent as anything in Dec-Feb. So we have 2 and half months left to go yet.. never throw in the towel until the final whistle blows!

 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

I guess beggars can't be choosers, but anything in March I find just melts away too quickly. I love snowy weather in December & January, where the snow freezes over, giving that crunch when you walk on it (a weird way to describe it but you know what I mean).

I remember the mid-March 2013 spell - whilst we had an amazing fall, the 6-8" that fell on unplowed, unsalted roads/paths etc. was nearly gone by the next day. We had a similar fall in Jan 2013 and whilst air temperatures were largely the same, it stayed around for at least a week before milder air broke through. 

The Beast from the East event in 2018 brought about 8" of snow to York, and even though the air was bitterly cold, the drip drip drip of snow on rooftops was evident and, again, unsalted roads were melting fast. 

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Posted
  • Location: Merseyside/ West Lancs Border; North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cool & dry, with regular cold, snowy periods.
  • Location: Merseyside/ West Lancs Border; North West England
3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I guess beggars can't be choosers, but anything in March I find just melts away too quickly. I love snowy weather in December & January, where the snow freezes over, giving that crunch when you walk on it (a weird way to describe it but you know what I mean).
 

Not only that, but snowy weather at the darkest period of the year adds to it; waking up when it's still dark, with that 'glow' from the fallen snow. It's not quite the same in late February/ early March when it's a lot lighter.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

As others have commented, ECM offering something a bit different in the 5-7 day timeframe with a more southerly tracking jet, enabling cold uppers to flood northern half of UK which would increase risk of relatively low level snow for some. However, it then follows GFS in bringing the azores high back into play, and its back to square one, with a mild SW flow, and the jet reverting more to a SW-NE pattern.

GFS is showing some colder polar maritime airflow by Sunday into north as well, lasting a couple of days or so.

Can't see any real shake up of the pattern of the winter so far as we move into February, perhaps a slightly more amplified flow, with the azores high ridging NE, then backing away to the SW, with a westerly then shortlived dig of NW air, before it comes back again. A typical atlantic pattern.

 

A stuck record and an incredibly boring song at that 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent

18z is HORRIFIC.... 

 

It's like an eternity in hell with a conveyor belt of azores high rubbish PV refusing to budge.

In a nutshell, truly awful as if you were  stuck in a nightmare where there's no way out..... Mother in law stays  for the weekend and then stays a week..... Only FAR WORSE..... 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Yeah absolutely. Can't believe we are STILL in this wretched boring pattern if  you are looking for cold and snow. 

Coming up 8 weeks now and no sign of any major change and not much chance of a bitterly cold outbreak this winter, unless we see a dramatic change  in the NH. 

Definitely heading towards worst winter in my lifetime, can't even see any glimmer of hope. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

The only thing left that could make this winter even worse is if a proper Bartlett high sets up in February, hopefully it won't come to that.

Still plenty of time left this winter as I tend to include March as a winter month, because you tend to see colder weather in March than December on average.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Does anyone know what the Manchester winter index is running at

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
36 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Does anyone know what the Manchester winter index is running at

I think its around -5763546254736046734758634879?

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Well at least some wet and wild weather coming next week. It will clear away the grey dullness hopefully. Big convective showers too. Weather can be interesting without snow too. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

13

I think we could well be looking at a Manchester winter index as low as 2013-14 if things remain as poor in February as this month; at the very least we are looking at a winter index as low as some of the other low winter indexes in the last 30 odd years if the pattern does not become more favourable for colder weather soon.

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