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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Truly horrible mate! 

That's a definite trend there and not a nice one! ☹️

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
1 hour ago, cheese said:

Even in a relatively mild winter you still have thousands of excess deaths

Your figures? Suspect they may be flawed,Yes the elderly are effected but the same is said of summer months when high humidity is involved. Sweden really suffered in the last heat wave,even more than here due to their infrastructure and type's of building,far more than the UK. 

Edited by markyo
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
18 minutes ago, Don said:

That's a definite trend there and not a nice one! ☹️

I think i will accept what David Attenborough says over what Donald Trump says!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
16 minutes ago, markyo said:

Your figures? Suspect they may be flawed,Yes the elderly are effected but the same is said of summer months when high humidity is involved. Sweden really suffered in the last heat wave,even more than here due to their infrastructure and type's of building,far more than the UK. 

https://www.e3g.org/docs/E3G_NEA_Cold_homes_and_excess_winter_deaths_2018.02.pdf

Quote

The UK has the sixth-highest EWM index out of 30 European countries. The fact that of the five countries with higher excess winter mortality than the UK, four are ‘warm’ southern European countries, highlights what Liddell et al. refer to as the excess winter mortality paradox, in which people are more likely to die in such countries during cold snaps than in northern countries where winters are consistently severe: Finland and Iceland are amongst the countries with the lowest EWM index.
The authors highlight how numerous factors contribute to the paradox, such as higher spending on heating in northern countries being an accepted necessity, the thermal efficiency of building fabric, and different lifestyles in response to cold weather (being indoors more, wearing more suitable clothing outdoors).

Plenty of people die during heatwaves, but we’re specifically talking about winter mortality, not summer mortality. There’s really no good excuse for the UK (and Ireland too for that matter) having a higher winter mortality rate than countries with significantly colder winters.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield

Had three nice cool crisp sunny days in a row here, can't  complain about those.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
3 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

But I think the assumption is that the younger generation feel colder and so cold alerts may be aimed at them, but statistically the elderly are more vulnerable to cold than the young. So cold alerts are aimed more at older rather than younger folks!

Not many youngsters work outdoors these days in comparison to say 40 or so years ago, consequently they haven't become hardened to the cold.

Believe me , there's a big difference between clowning around in the snow for a few hours , and spending 8 hours a day,40 a week in freezing temperatures with the wind behind it.  . Thankfully, I don't  have to do it anymore, but  I can recall being so bl....dy cold back in the 70s/80s  that I did'nt know what to do with myself .

Edited by 78/79
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The horror show for coldies continues.

The NW snap has turned into a cooler blip and January looks like ending on a very unsettled and windy spell of weather.

One things clear from the winter so far , any amplification shown in the models past day 6 needs to be viewed with a huge pinch of salt .

We’ve seen this flattened out nearer the time.

There’s good agreement on the overall pattern between the ECM and GFS at day ten.

The only remotely interesting feature is the Canadian high which shows up on days 9 and 10.

This could slow down the relentless train of low pressure and might deliver a glimmer of hope if we can push the jet a bit further south and east as the limpet Euro high is refusing to leave the scene quietly.

We now look like being left with February to salvage this dismal excuse of a winter !

I'm still trying to be positive, ten days to the start of February so still a long way to go. Most of us can remember times when things have changed very quickly to a colder scenario in the past, right out of the blue so to speak, surely there must be a sting in the tale of this horrendous so called winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
22 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'm still trying to be positive, ten days to the start of February so still a long way to go. Most of us can remember times when things have changed very quickly to a colder scenario in the past, right out of the blue so to speak, surely there must be a sting in the tale of this horrendous so called winter. 

I’d be very shocked if we go through the next 10ish weeks without having a cold spell /snap. So that’s the rest of Jan , feb and March to get a decent wintry spell of weather . If we don’t get anything meaningful it will definitely go down as a one of the worst winters I can remember. I really think one will come tho and make this forum feel so much better lol . 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’d be very shocked if we go through the next 10ish weeks without having a cold spell /snap. So that’s the rest of Jan , feb and March to get a decent wintry spell of weather . If we don’t get anything meaningful it will definitely go down as a one of the worst winters I can remember. I really think one will come tho and make this forum feel so much better lol . 

I'd love a spell lasting a week or so at least, but a snap would suffice at this stage of proceedings, a couple of days with a bit of snow around would give me my fix. 

Or maybe we do need a spell.... 

Calling Harry Potter...any witches or wizards on here by any chance?

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well at least we can put to bed the myth that longer range models are always pish. Correct call at 3 month lead time is not too bad at all.

Of course, this only really applies to a +NAO set up as they are seemingly quite atrocious at dealing with anything outside of the climatological 'norm'

What are your thoughts about Feb and March then Crewe?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The horror show for coldies continues.

The NW snap has turned into a cooler blip and January looks like ending on a very unsettled and windy spell of weather.

One things clear from the winter so far , any amplification shown in the models past day 6 needs to be viewed with a huge pinch of salt .

We’ve seen this flattened out nearer the time.

There’s good agreement on the overall pattern between the ECM and GFS at day ten.

The only remotely interesting feature is the Canadian high which shows up on days 9 and 10.

This could slow down the relentless train of low pressure and might deliver a glimmer of hope if we can push the jet a bit further south and east as the limpet Euro high is refusing to leave the scene quietly.

We now look like being left with February to salvage this dismal excuse of a winter !

Forget  February Nick....very very low chance imo

 

 BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well at least we can put to bed the myth that longer range models are always pish. Correct call at 3 month lead time is not too bad at all.

Of course, this only really applies to a +NAO set up as they are seemingly quite atrocious at dealing with anything outside of the climatological 'norm'

No Aaron.....they’ll go mild EVERY YEAR without fail.  
 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Forget  February Nick....very very low chance imo

 

 BFTP

Think we might get something in the last week of Feb blast.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Think we might get something in the last week of Feb blast.

Feb, I’ll agree that could be the transition week....I anticipate a cold Spring, early at least 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

not posted for a bit, see nothing has changed, many waiting for winter that may never arrive, although E'lys to dominate April and May

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
8 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

"Harsh" frost across the south last night - between 0 and -4..

You have to laugh! What a pathetic winter so far. 

Harsh frost? 
 

And to think that somehow those of us who were around at the time survived -25 temperatures in 1981/82. How times have changed!

 

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
8 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

"Harsh" frost across the south last night - between 0 and -4..

You have to laugh! What a pathetic winter so far. 

here no frost at all, felt fairly mild today

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
1 hour ago, Thundershine said:

Had three nice cool crisp sunny days in a row here, can't  complain about those.

It was lovely to have a proper wintry day with temperatures down to -3c and only 4.5c during lunchtime

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Harsh frost? 
 

And to think that somehow those of us who were around at the time survived -25 temperatures in 1981/82. How times have changed!

 

Agree entirely.  Whilst there have been frosts the last few days, it has certainly been nothing out of the ordinary!

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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Wonder how many more weeks before a massive pattern change takes place and the majority of Europe goes bitterly cold.I have seen it before with minus 30 at the end of March in Sweden etc and sub-Zero in Mid March even here on the coast.I expect huge payback from this mildness over Europe.

That’s whats keeping my interest in the models and how long before they pick up on the change.

Its certainly been a tedious winter though chasing non existent cold for months.

 

I don't think so. Most winters that it was warm here in dec and jan continued at the same pattern. 

I have never seen so successful seasonal models as this year and they are pretty bad for the rest of the winter.

Some signals must have been so strong this winter, I can't explain how they have seen it so well

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
9 hours ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Harsh frost? 
 

And to think that somehow those of us who were around at the time survived -25 temperatures in 1981/82. How times have changed!

 

And  - 27c in 1995

And  - 24c in 2010

Much more recent. 

Interesting reading the monthly summaries on the Met Office and Met Eireann sites, all the way back to the 50s.

Not much has changed. Several long stretches of successive winters, most of the 70s for example l, without any severe cold.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Well at least we can put to bed the myth that longer range models are always pish. Correct call at 3 month lead time is not too bad at all.

Of course, this only really applies to a +NAO set up as they are seemingly quite atrocious at dealing with anything outside of the climatological 'norm'

Quite so Crewe. Anyone or any computer can forecast the climatological norm.

It's the person or computer that can pick the cold winters that are the real deal.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
16 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Quite so Crewe. Anyone or any computer can forecast the climatological norm.

It's the person or computer that can pick the cold winters that are the real deal.

But not those that routinely predict Snowmageddon, year in and year out, I hope?:shok: IMO, it's getting it right, more reliably than any others, that counts...?

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