Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Mapantz]

17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My point being was it was quite selfish to hope for a warming planet to continue!! This in itself will cause mass destruction. 

He didn't. He said warming trend - milder Winters. He's perfectly entitled to want that. I like heavy rain and gales, it doesn't mean I wish for flooding.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Mapantz said:

He didn't. He said warming trend - milder Winters. He's perfectly entitled to want that. I like heavy rain and gales, it doesn't mean I wish for flooding.

I misread the post then. So my apologies to luna boy... Sorry mate

[knocker]

I see the cold coven are predictable getting a tad emotive at the likely demise of the settled spell and a return to wet and windy

[mushymanrob]

45 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Personally I think we concentrate far to much on background signals most of which are a fad in my opinion.

The list is endless, MJO, AO, NAO, SSTs, Moutain Torque, El Nino to name but a few and most of these have appeared in the last 10 years, did all these things really line up perfectly in 1963 or 1979 for 3 solid months?

Back then we just had the BDC, bloody damn cold!

Andy

i dont think most of those "background signals" were known about or at least understood back in '63 or '79.  Surely more info = better understanding = more accurate forecasts? Im sure forecasts are far bettern now then they were back then.

[Bristawl Si]

45 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Absolutely this post. There now seems to be a myriad of factors in order for it to get cold, one spoke in the wheel and we are done for it seems. 

Maybe the "myriad of factors" and the now infamous background signals, have scientific flaws, and are no longer to be taken as genuine. Just maybe.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

There’s plenty of snaw in Spain at the moment

[Summer Sun]

The met office have extended the level 2 alert for severe cold weather in parts of southern England until 9am Wednesday

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:56 on Mon 20 Jan 2020

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather between 0900 on Monday 20 Jan and 0900 on Wednesday 22 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

This cold weather alert extends the duration of the current cold spell to include Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with frost and freezing fog patches again likely in the south of England in particular. These may prove slow to clear or perhaps persist in places to suppress daytime temperatures and help reach the mean of 2 degrees Celsius criterion. The second half of the working week should see cloud-cover and temperatures gradually increase, with further alerts not expected at this time.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

[Sunny76]

I just wish it would stay dry cold and sunny until mid march, then we can have spring warmth.

Had enough of the damp cloudy rainy weather. Its so boring after a while. 

[Methuselah]

52 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe the "myriad of factors" and the now infamous background signals, have scientific flaws, and are no longer to be taken as genuine. Just maybe.

IMO, both the 'factors' and the teleconnections are valid, they're simply not properly understood: one reason, for their apparent failure, would be that new 'factors' are being discovered all the time; another 'problem' would be that, as the planet warms, long-dormant oscillations might (I would err on the side of 'almost certainly will') start up again...?

There's an awful lot of complexity in science that new measuring-techniques are yet to unravel?

[Summer of 95]

2 hours ago, MikeC53 said:

Was looking over on TWO and it's now 24 years since the last mid winter easterly.

As my username indicates, I'm 66 years old and in the first 36 years of my life there was probably only one winter like this one. In the last 30 years there have been about 10.

 

 

 

24 years? Depends what you define as "mid-winter" but Jan 2013 and early Feb 2009 fit most definitions of it. If you take it to mean near the solstice there was Dec 2010 and the brief one at the end of Dec 2005 (plus the easterlies, though they weren't cold, in Dec 2002).

I know they have been scarce in the 2000s but not that scarce

[PiscesStar]

So what are the main drivers behind the pattern that we have seen gfs displaying. It's like a conveyor belt of high pressure. If you run the gfs sequence that's how it appears to a greater or lesser extent. It seems stuck. What is the main driving force or explanation for this. It seems almost. Ludicrous that Greece gets plastered with snow and cold and we geographically are much much further north and can't even manage a frost.... 

Edited January 20, 2020 by Snowfish2

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

So what are the main drivers behind the pattern that we have seen gfs displaying. It's like a conveyor belt of high pressure. If you run the gfs sequence that's how it appears to a greater or lesser extent. It seems stuck. What is the main driving force or explanation for this. It seems almost. Ludicrous that Greece gets plastered with snow and cold and we geographically are much much further north and can't even manage a frost.... 

It's because the sub tropical Atlantic high pressure (Azores High) is becoming more expansive due to advanced global warming. 

Despite being further South than the UK, Greece has more of a continental climate than the UK and its no different to parts of the USA which get more snow than the UK despite being 2000 or more miles further South.

[Jason M]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office have extended the level 2 alert for severe cold weather in parts of southern England until 9am Wednesday

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:56 on Mon 20 Jan 2020

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather between 0900 on Monday 20 Jan and 0900 on Wednesday 22 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

This cold weather alert extends the duration of the current cold spell to include Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with frost and freezing fog patches again likely in the south of England in particular. These may prove slow to clear or perhaps persist in places to suppress daytime temperatures and help reach the mean of 2 degrees Celsius criterion. The second half of the working week should see cloud-cover and temperatures gradually increase, with further alerts not expected at this time.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

Wowzer!! I hadn't realized we were in a cold spell . A bit of frost and fog used to be 'normal' for January. How times change!

[MikeC53]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's because the sub tropical Atlantic high pressure (Azores High) is becoming more expansive due to advanced global warming. 

Despite being further South than the UK, Greece has more of a continental climate than the UK and its no different to parts of the USA which get more snow than the UK despite being 2000 or more miles further South.

Yes, I think Greece and that area is the only part of Europe not to be anomalously warm this winter.

[Bristawl Si]

Not seen a single snowflake here this Winter, yet parts of Spain's Costa Blanca has seen heavy snow, just a few miles inland from its coast, and not all at height either! 

[SLEETY]

Severe cold alert, do me a favour. 

Max temps of 7c are now deemed severely cold, thats slightly above average. 

What would they class sub-zero max temps then, the start of the new ice age, lol

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Interesting thoughts from Jon hammond from his latest blog. A strengthening jet stream will attempt to reinstate the dominance of Atlantic weather systems!! However the relevance of pulses of atmospheric energy that are now emerging into the Western Pacific. This influence will tend to promote more blocking. Intensely cold air will build to the NE, this will serve to deflect the jet SE, on one side of this boundary, there's an enhanced risk of snow, while on the other side, mild air will dominate. So February still very much up in the air, with a realistic possibility of colder Conditions than earlier in the winter. 

[PiscesStar]

29 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's because the sub tropical Atlantic high pressure (Azores High) is becoming more expansive due to advanced global warming. 

Despite being further South than the UK, Greece has more of a continental climate than the UK and its no different to parts of the USA which get more snow than the UK despite being 2000 or more miles further South.

Thanks for reply. So how would you describe the UK climate. And I presume the azores high would be beneficial but only depending on its placement and not as it currently is a mass fluctuating. If it were to advect north so that it produces a mountainous shape? Retrogression? 

Edited January 20, 2020 by Snowfish2

[Geordiesnow]

21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's because the sub tropical Atlantic high pressure (Azores High) is becoming more expansive due to advanced global warming. 

Despite being further South than the UK, Greece has more of a continental climate than the UK and its no different to parts of the USA which get more snow than the UK despite being 2000 or more miles further South.

Nonsence! Wheres the evidence for that? This winter has just seen a more normal weather pattern across the northern hemisphere where the jet stream is fairly flat, the PV over the pole and Greenland is very strong and the mid latitudes lacking cold air. The Azores high is always there, sometimes it does move but the normal common pattern is for higher pressure to be to our south. Sick of hearing climate change is responsible for this that and the other, its the temperatures that are going up and certain set ups these days will be marginally warmer than they were 30 to 50 years ago. 

Looks like the Atlantic will be coming into play again after this dry spell, no real wintriness on the horizon either and time is starting to run out. Hopefully we will get one cold snowy spell before the winter is out, at least as a consolation prize for what we been through so far. 

[DavidS]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's because the sub tropical Atlantic high pressure (Azores High) is becoming more expansive due to advanced global warming. 

Despite being further South than the UK, Greece has more of a continental climate than the UK and its no different to parts of the USA which get more snow than the UK despite being 2000 or more miles further South.

Sorry I know it off topic, but would be interesting to discuss / understand,  by what mechanism the Azores high would become  more expansive due to global warming. Perhaps better for another thread?

[frosty ground]

26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's because the sub tropical Atlantic high pressure (Azores High) is becoming more expansive due to advanced global warming. 

Despite being further South than the UK, Greece has more of a continental climate than the UK and its no different to parts of the USA which get more snow than the UK despite being 2000 or more miles further South.

Global warming didn't create the NAC. The NAC has always driven our temperate climate and will continue to do so long after we are all gone.

I have seen the same argument under many different guises for 18 years on these (weather) forums, all making the same mistake that our latitude should some how compare with the eastern side of North America.

 

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I just wish it would stay dry cold and sunny until mid march, then we can have spring warmth.

Had enough of the damp cloudy rainy weather. Its so boring after a while. 

Well today was close to spring warmth around here anyway, went out along the Thames, bright sunshine and the water looked blue, birds were out, incredible stuff really felt like mid/late spring. This is the third day of wall to wall sunshine and barely a frost, a bit crisp in the mornings but that's about it.

I think I would have caught a suntan if I'd stayed down there much longer.

 

[snowray]

42 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Wowzer!! I hadn't realized we were in a cold spell . A bit of frost and fog used to be 'normal' for January. How times change!

Indeed, weather warning......haha, have they go nothing better to think about, what a pile of tosh!

[MikeC53]

40 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Not seen a single snowflake here this Winter, yet parts of Spain's Costa Blanca has seen heavy snow, just a few miles inland from its coast, and not all at height either! 

I'd say for Europe as a whole when you look at the anomalies that Central Europe and Southern Scandinavia have seen it must rank as one of the least snowiest European winters ever. We've not even seen topplers that miss us and go into Germany.

[swfc]

Even in Sheffield not seen a snowflake yet this winter which is pretty incredible .I do think march will be a cold month which I don't want but the PV even in fi on the models isn't giving an inch