Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[North-Easterly Blast]

35 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

That's a very definite statement.. nearly 2 weeks left.. northern low level areas could see some snow if a nw flow develops.. too early to discount it . Back to February musings.. since 2005, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2018 all brought cold weather and with exception of 2010 I think correct me if wrong were the coldest months of the winter.. 2016 I think also.. 7 out of 15 nearly half... 

The statistics shows that things have been finely balanced - Feb 2005 showed a change to a colder pattern after limited cold up to then.  The first half of Feb 2012 brought a cold spell after limited cold up to then.  Feb 2018 brought a rather cold month after a fairly mild January.  Feb 2009 actually brought a cold first half but finished up near average and not as cold overall as both the December and January it followed.  Feb 2013 saw a rather cold month although never on the scale of the cold spell in mid January that year.  

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The statistics shows that things have been finely balanced - Feb 2005 showed a change to a colder pattern after limited cold up to then.  The first half of Feb 2012 brought a cold spell after limited cold up to then.  Feb 2018 brought a rather cold month after a fairly mild January.  Feb 2009 actually brought a cold first half but finished up near average and not as cold overall as both the December and January it followed.  Feb 2013 saw a rather cold month although never on the scale of the cold spell in mid January that year.  

Feb was actually colder than Jan in 2013.

Just not as much snow for most althought similar snow totals here. 

Edited January 18, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[hillbilly]

Certainly all the years 52 years I can remember there has never been a year that hadn't snowed before my birthday which is January 23rd.It looks like this year is going to do it,unbelievable.It was close a few years ago but snowed a few days before although we did have a dusting mid December which lasted a day on high ground around here but it really is showing these modern times when we get no snow here in the pennines. 

[Spindrift2017]

On 17/01/2020 at 17:47, Sceptical said:

Current snow conditions for Cairngorm and Lecht ski centres.

 

Not the full picture though.  The west has done pretty well from the recent Returning Polar Maritime airflow, which is never likely to deliver much for the Lecht given its location and comparatively low altitude.

It has undeniably been a poor winter for snow and cold, and it might not last too long given the resurgent Euro Heights, but the west Highlands are looking pretty good at the moment.

 

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

37 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Feb was actually colder than Jan in 2013.

Just not as much snow for most althought similar snow totals here. 

What I meant to say was that Feb 2013 may have had a slightly lower overall mean temperature than Jan 2013; it was due to generally below average temperatures through the month but it never brought anything as significant as the cold fortnight in Jan 2013.

Edited January 18, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

What I meant to say was although Feb 2013 had a lower mean temperature than Jan 2013, it was due to generally below average temperatures through the month but it never brought anything as significant as the cold fortnight in Jan 2013.

True - although in my location Jan, Feb and March all gave similar snow totals - about 5 inches in total in each month although the drifts in late March made it closer to 5ft a mile and a half away.

[Nath]

I can report seeing snow yesterday!!!   That was in Bratislava though .  I was even robbed there, was there all week it starts snowing as im boarding my flight home lol

[AderynCoch]

23 minutes ago, Nath said:

I can report seeing snow yesterday!!!   That was in Bratislava though .  I was even robbed there, was there all week it starts snowing as im boarding my flight home lol

You should have told me you were coming. 

It's been snowing here since about 4pm today but there's only 1-2cm so far because the flakes are light. It will be interesting to see if it can keep sticking tomorrow because it's supposed to last all day.

Also interesting to see only Bratislava in Slovakia under a snow warning. Don't see that very often.

Edited January 18, 2020 by AderynCoch

[Snowyowl9]

4 hours ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Id suggest gardeners don't think an early warm Spring is going to happen......

Thats when winter starts spring.

[Dennis]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Could well be compatible with the main cluster on the ECM, at least locally 

D15 clusters, coldies look away now I'm afraid... 

That's as hopeless a chart for cold as you can imagine. 

We got an early burst of spring at the end of last February - we might not be far away from the same but even earlier in February. 

Coldies in the south should make the most of frosts in the next few days, if you scrape enough ice off your windscreen then throw it up in the air, it can seem like snow for a split second

 

[Guest Delete Me]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I really, desperately hoped I'd be wrong about this winter...

Ahh so it's your fault then! 

[Gord]

I've lost a lot of interest in winter weather over the past couple of years. Mainly because there's been very little of it to interest me and also because I have been busy doing other stuff.

But I pop in here now and again, just in case...

Each time I've visited the forum this winter...I've come across a post with a chart and a comment like, "It doesn't get much worse than this".

So...when do we reach peak worst?

Edited January 19, 2020 by Gord

[summer blizzard]

Late Feb is the next orbit of the MJO so presumably the CFS expects another high amplitude event.

[tight isobar]

26 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Late Feb is the next orbit of the MJO so presumably the CFS expects another high amplitude event.

yeah - taking that orbit  turn into account 

and CFS  LOOKINGS. .spring looks  non-exist! !!.

'along with other factors '..

 

it's looking  like deep winter may well come into what we assume as spring! !!.

a growing habbit  of our climatically  changing turn! !!

Edited January 19, 2020 by tight isobar

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

My thoughts this evening/morning is look to the north/north west. I am 100% convinced that this winter will bring us a very big surprise regarding cold and snow prospects. Its just the big question when and how we get there. The artic looks angry this year to me and its far from winter over. Watch this space night all. PS no matter how intelligent we as humans are and our big computer models. No way do I trust anything weather wise past 10 days max this includes mjo/clusters/long range forcast there are too many things changing weather wise than you can imagine. 

Edited January 19, 2020 by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed a key point

[Sir Mim]

It's quarter-to-three in the morning, in mid January, and I can hear birdsong outside.  Is that normal?  Surely that isn't normal.

[Nick L]

It ACTUALLY feels like winter this morning. Blimey. Who'd have thought it.

[Snowyowl9]

Coldest night since november 30th made -1.9c GFS predicted temps are too high as I expected.

 

[jules216]

One winter forecast that is going to be as incorrect as one can imagine is Accuweather.The regions which were supposed to be the coldest will have the highest temp. anomalies by end of January. Central Europe benefitial rainfalls stand at 5mm so far this month and whopping 30mm in December

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

One winter forecast that is going to be as incorrect as one can imagine is Accuweather.The regions which were supposed to be the coldest will have the highest temp. anomalies by end of January. Central Europe benefitial rainfalls stand at 5mm so far this month and whopping 30mm in December

Pretty much every aspect of that is wrong, impressive!

[jules216]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Pretty much every aspect of that is wrong, impressive!

@Nick L isnt it

[carinthian]

Hardly any rain or snowfall in many parts of Central Europe this winter. Wonder what the consequences regarding the drought lasting into Spring /Summer ? Rivers just a trickle in these parts. Just noted 1046mb surface pressure in the Welsh/ English border region and still rising. That's impressive, 1050mb on the cards !

 C

[Nick L]

Well, there certainly won't be any water shortages this summer in the UK!

[markyo]

The best Sunday of the Winter so far,still below freezing(just so not really cold),clear blue skies,slight breeze. Makes a very welcome change to this horrendous season so far.

[sorepaw1]

I'm trying to remember a winter like this one for the UK...regarding temperature and lack of snow.

Let's hope we get a nice spring and summer...

The spring bulbs are poking through in my garden and the grass needs a trim.