Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh well, it was nice to have a bit of interest, utterly garbage 00z runs as expected.

Just go away 'winter' 2019.

Enough.

It's a garbage winter  but i was expecting it so not that hissed off lol

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I knew it was too good to be true especially with the Met Office not on board with their latest updates. Least it won’t be mild!

Edited January 17, 2020 by prolongedSnowLover

[Sceptical]

4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I knew it was too good to be true especially with the Met Office not on board with their latest updates. Least it won’t be mild!

For most, day time time temperatures will be at or above average.

[knocker]

[snowspotter]

I didn’t bother looking at charts for 10 days after Steve Murr said winter over . Had a glance a day or so ago and I see everyone was on the northerly bandwagon . Now it disappeared and we are back to the new norm . According to the net weather CET we are about 4c above average 4c for gods sake . Personally I have not seen a single day below a max of 7c this month and no sign yet of a frost . It’s more like October 

[Sceptical]

February 2020 is also expected to be mild

A "virtual" winter is still available in the MAD thread.

Edited January 17, 2020 by Sceptical

[Summer Sun]

 

[Interitus]

Roughly half-way through winter, taking the daily CET data from December and estimated values to January 15th, how mild has it been?

This winter is 13th mildest (out of 245) with 2015/6 unsurprisingly top after the incredible December, but there are some short memories, last year was a tad milder to this point and of recent years 2006/7 is also ahead. Close behind are 2013/4 and 2011/2 in the top 20 -

 

An alternative view is the absence of cold to this point, seen from the lowest daily CET. By this measure 2019/20 is joint 12th with a coldest day of 1.5°C, albeit right at the start of December. However 2013/4 is top with the coldest day a barely below average 3.5°C -

 

[acrossthechannel]

To be honest Stodge, who wants to have winter in late February and March when there is next to no chance of snow sticking, when fruit trees are sure to be damaged by frost, etc

[PiscesStar]

10 minutes ago, legritter said:

Morning gang  ,must admit i was expecting a better Ecm run this morning, and currently the gfs run is ticking along on a mild mush path .I am clutching on the fact that the models at the moment are working with a big monster high , possibly 1050 mb ,so hoping after a few days all models will get a better handle on things .I still think we will get a visit from the arctic or poles , Ecm at 240 hrs is still hinting at this .so come on gang  ,feet up ,fry off some sausages, brown sauce, Coffee , welcome the frost with open arms  , and may tonights ECM , reign supreme ,cheers gang .

I love you legritter what time. Shall I trapse round yours for me sausages mate

[stodge]

46 minutes ago, acrossthechannel said:

To be honest Stodge, who wants to have winter in late February and March when there is next to no chance of snow sticking, when fruit trees are sure to be damaged by frost, etc

I live in lowland East London. I've had snow fall and settle in March and even late March. I know everyone wants feet of snow lasting for weeks but this is the UK not Northern Scandinavia or Canada.

If snow in March doesn't float your boat, fine, but the chance of snow falling and settling is still there.

[stainesbloke]

46 minutes ago, acrossthechannel said:

To be honest Stodge, who wants to have winter in late February and March when there is next to no chance of snow sticking, when fruit trees are sure to be damaged by frost, etc

Unfortunately, or not, that’s when the UK most often experiences snow and cold. It was a very decent cold spell in March 2018 with many places seeing multiple snow falls and some ice days, even for me living near Heathrow at that time. I do get your concern for fruit blossom but most fruit trees have yet to bloom then. 

[MP-R]

Other than 2013 and 2018, March really isn’t that great for snow. Unlike the winter months, it seems to be either all or nothing. All if we strike lucky and get unusual Synoptics and nothing if the month is anticyclonic or the standard Atlantic-dominated.

Looking back through the 90s and 00s, most March snowfalls tended to be transient affairs within a more mobile pattern. The more high pressure dominated Marches then largely avoided snow altogether.

I still think any snow this winter is going to come from northwesterlies or northerlies as high pressure slides west or southwest. Any favourable Synoptics will likely appear from April onwards which will either just deliver cold rain or even warm settled conditions.

[festivalking]

1 hour ago, acrossthechannel said:

To be honest Stodge, who wants to have winter in late February and March when there is next to no chance of snow sticking, when fruit trees are sure to be damaged by frost, etc

To be honest we had plenty of sticking snow in plymouth in february and March in 2018, so it can still happen and the channel islands were buried in March 2013! 

Edited January 17, 2020 by festivalking

[mb018538]

57 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Firstly I can understand the downbeat mood in here... Finding this cold snap is liking finding the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. Your point about who wants winter at the end of Feb makes no sense to me though... Technically speaking it's winter till the final 3rd of March. And I'm pretty sure most on here would take a shot at a decent snow event come the end of Feb with open arms, and I'm pretty sure we wouldnt be to concerned over the fruit trees for a week. Still a glimmer of hope on the ECM 10 day output... But it's 10 day's!! Worse case scenario is let's right of rest of the month, and pin our hopes on something more promising come Feb, whether it be early or late, who cares!! Just bring it.... The search goes on. 

Actually it’s winter until the end of February....March/April/May have always been the spring months from a meteorological perspective. Doesn’t mean it can’t snow though. Just like it doesn’t mean it can’t be hot in September because it’s not summer.

[Chesil View]

55 minutes ago, stodge said:

I live in lowland East London. I've had snow fall and settle in March and even late March. I know everyone wants feet of snow lasting for weeks but this is the UK not Northern Scandinavia or Canada.

If snow in March doesn't float your boat, fine, but the chance of snow falling and settling is still there.

Quite so stodge. March 2018 was the snowiest month since December 2010 at my lowland south Dorset location.

It can snow and stick in March even down here 

[karlos1983]

This crops up every year and tickles me pink!

i live so far south, that I can almost dip my toes in the sea from my garden.

march 2018, from memory 18th/19th so hardly early March either..

snow can stick in March

Edited January 17, 2020 by karlos1983

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the reason people get underwhelmed by cold weather in spring is you are battling with that increase in solar energy .

So effectively you need better synoptics to deliver . Of course ironically you’re more likely to be able to sustain blocking at that point as the stratosphere warms up and the PV weakens .

It’s after all what more often than not brings us our first springlike spell, especially when the wind is southeasterly. Misty mornings and sunny afternoons with the suns strength starting to show. Sounds like bliss right now!

Edit: just realised this isn’t the winter moans/ramps thread! Maybe this train of conversation could be moved there... whoops!

Edited January 17, 2020 by MP-R

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

This crops up every year and tickles me pink!

i live so far south, that I can almost dip my toes in the sea from my garden.

march 2018, from memory 18th/19th so hardly early March either..

snow can stick in March

Aye karlos, tis an annual event, here on Netweather; but it's fun all the same...?

Though aware of the 'official' definitions of the seasons, I prefer Nature's responses: I will always, for instance, consider March 2013 an extension of winter, just as some Septembers are quite obviously ditto, for their respective summers...

Hey, ho; we are each of us pedants, in our own idiosyncratic way!

Edited January 17, 2020 by General Cluster

[fujita5]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

This crops up every year and tickles me pink!

i live so far south, that I can almost dip my toes in the sea from my garden.

march 2018, from memory 18th/19th so hardly early March either..

snow can stick in March

We had quite a lot of unexpected snow in Clacton on 2nd March with storm Emma - the warnings were very much centred on the west of the UK but the frontal system was much more active in the east than expected.  The snow was powdery and drifted quite a lot causing travel chaos.  There was about 4" of level snow by the end of the 2nd, with drifts up to a foot.  It hung around for several days too, despite the weather being sunny - temperatures struggled to get above freezing, even on the coast on the 3rd.

We had further snow around the 17th but it didn't last long.

So yeah, I'd be quite happy with another late Feb/early March cold episode if that's all that's available this season.

[HafrenLMP1]

2 hours ago, acrossthechannel said:

To be honest Stodge, who wants to have winter in late February and March when there is next to no chance of snow sticking, when fruit trees are sure to be damaged by frost, etc

I'm a bit the same - even though we're told Feb/ March are better for cold/ snow; if we can't have it in Dec/ Jan then I'm almost not bothered about late season cold. The much vaunted BFTE wasn't particularly great were I live; a couple of inches, virtually gone by mid afternoon....

[steveinsussex]

Eh?

[Steve C]

3 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

This crops up every year and tickles me pink!

i live so far south, that I can almost dip my toes in the sea from my garden.

march 2018, from memory 18th/19th so hardly early March either..

snow can stick in March

Fabulous though it was, it (BFTE) was very unusual for southern England. Nowhere near the longevity potential of even a couple of weeks earlier.

If I was boring enough, I would post some stats to emphasise. 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Eh?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Oh dear.