Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

It's not true to say this is a just a blip. Russia is warming at a rate of ~0.43°С per decade, which is double the global rate. Of course there will be ups and downs, but the trend is for rising temperatures.

And Moscow just recorded its highest December temperature in 133 years. 

And in December 2017 it recorded one of its coldest periods, for that month on record. January 2017 also recorded record minimums.

It is not all 'one way'.

[Stabilo19]

22 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

And in December 2017 it recorded one of its coldest periods, for that month on record. January 2017 also recorded record minimums.

It is not all 'one way'.

But I literally just said there will be ups and downs but the trend is for warming.

[Frost HoIIow]

Well if we get a February like 2018 it would compensate for the poor Winter so far. Although earlier in that Winter we already had a couple of snow falls. One light covering was technically in Autumn at the very end of November though. But nothing compared to the end of February. And then another 2 decent snow falls around the 1st March & 17/18th. So can February deliver the goods? I'm not bothered if March is cold as well. The days are still a bit too short to sit out in the evening. The warmth can come in April.

Edited January 15, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[AderynCoch]

1 hour ago, Candice said:

I was in Bratislava on the 18th December, sat outside in the main square in the sun at 13c

I was in Ukraine that day (Ľviv) and it was 16C!

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Quotes about Russia and unseasonably mild, so far; veiled references to it could become 'normal'.

It is one Winter (so far); last 10 Winters (before this year) in Russia HAVE been "normal" for there i.e. cold, snow, below freezing during days. 

Not unusual for Russia to have a milder Winter, every 10 years or so. It is fairly normal.

Moscow getting ready  for the severe cold .that is approaching , could be severe and long lasting....

[Beet]

Very poor first half of winter. I hope this winter turns out to be a tale of two halves. Surely the second half can't be as bad as the first, surely I can be feeling upbeat and postive this time next month. I mean, if I didn't see a max below 7C or a min below -2C, no way the second half could also meet that criteria, it almost makes me excited because I just know it's going to better. It has to.

[Don]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Decent snow cover by D10, with drifting, bitterly cold in the strong northerly wind.

 

Hmm, notice that triangle of white stretching from Exeter across to Brighton and up to Gloucester.  Who lives within that?  Me!  Never mind, I can always go for a Sunday drive!  

[Jo Farrow]

After Georgina Laud's 150mph winds for this weekend Express article, here's what you need to write for the express 

Royals, Brexit and why not throw in Weather.

 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

After Georgina Laud's 150mph winds for this weekend Express article, here's what you need to write for the express 

Royals, Brexit and why not throw in Weather.

 

Shocking, lazy journalism as usual. Nice of them to post an upper wind chart and try to pass it off as a surface level forecast to scare people. They need to be held accountable for this constant dung that they publish.

[Sceptical]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

They need to be held accountable for this constant dung that they publish.

The MAD thread?

[SqueakheartLW]

Don't rule out the change of a cold February just yet. Went through all the CET Data from 1950 to now and the ENSO data as well and did some calculations. This is what I got

ENSO                    OVERALL VS 1981-2010 AVERAGE        Nov                 Dec                  Jan                  Feb                  Mar             
Super ElNino         +1.09 MILDER THAN AVERAGE              +1.53 Milder   +2.17 Milder    +1.27 Milder    +0.23 Milder    +0.17 Milder
Strong LaNina       +0.22 MILDER THAN AVERAGE               -0.69 Colder   +0.24 Milder    +0.76 Milder    +0.54 Milder    +0.06 Milder
Weak ElNino         +0.05 MILDER THAN AVERAGE               +0.42 Milder   +0.67 Milder    -0.35 Colder    -0.14 Colder    -0.39 Colder
ENSO Neutral (W) -0.03 COLDER THAN AVERAGE              +0.40 Milder   -0.05 Colder    -0.15 Colder    -0.95 Colder   +0.60 Milder
Moderate LaNina   -0.22 COLDER THAN AVERAGE              +0.70 Milder   -0.30 Colder    +0.10 Milder    +0.10 Milder    -1.70 Colder
ENSO Neutral (N)  -0.29 COLDER THAN AVERAGE              -0.46 Colder   -0.74 Colder    -0.64 Colder    +0.15 Milder    +0.11 Milder
Weak Lanina         -0.40 COLDER THAN AVERAGE             +0.09 Milder   +0.39 Milder    -0.50 Colder    -0.86 Colder    -1.12 Colder
Strong ElNino        -0.45 COLDER THAN AVERAGE             -0.56 Colder   -0.04 Colder    -1.22 Colder    +0.18 Milder    -0.60 Colder
ENSO Neutral (C) -0.53 COLDER THAN AVERAGE             -1.14 Colder   -0.15 Colder    -0.56 Colder    -0.65 Colder    -0.20 Colder
Moderate ElNino   -0.87 COLDER THAN AVERAGE             +0.90 Milder   -0.20 Colder    -2.30 Colder    -0.35 Colder    -2.40 Colder

Since we are currently in a Warm ENSO Neutral then I have highlighted February's average CET anomaly vs 1981 - 2010 average and it is the coldest month based on it's anomaly compared with the 1981 - 2010 average. At -0.95C colder than average if this plays out we could see some cold and maybe snowy weather in February.

Super ElNino - As can be seen from the table also you can clearly rule out any chance of cold with a Super ElNino. Thankfully we don't have one of those this year.

Strong LaNina - Although also not good for cold chances it does at least give a chance of very early snowfall in November with that -0.69C colder anomaly. December 2010 was in a strong LaNina year and was the exception to the rule in general with Strong LaNina's.

Weak ElNino - Weak ElNino years came out overall bad for anything substantially cold but the anomalies suggest a back loaded winter overall.

ENSO Neutral (Warmer side) - This generally mimics the pattern for Weak ElNino but the cold is focused more in the February than any other month. Maybe hope for February 2020 if this plays out.

Moderate LaNina - Very few years to go on with this one so cannot really get a pattern here

ENSO Neutral (Neutral) - When ENSO is bang on average it appears to favour a cold earlier winter, especially focused on the December

Weak LaNina - I'd heard from many sources that Weak LaNina's are supposed to be good to get a very cold winter so I was rather disappointed when I averaged out all of the CET anomalies for Weak LaNina years. It showed a back loaded winter and milder temperatures early on. March was the coldest compared to average. I was expecting a more negative overall anomaly compared to the one I got.

Strong ElNino - This was the ENSO state that surprised me. I was expecting milder than average since ElNino was strong in these years. I came away with colder than average, particularly focused on the January's

ENSO Neutral (Colder Side) - This was the other surprise, how ENSO Neutral (Colder Side) performed better for cold overall than Weak LaNina did. Maybe 1962-1963 played a part in this result. It appears if you have a cold ENSO Neutral it favours cold in all months from November to March with November as the coldest overall compared to average.

Moderate ElNino - This came out as coldest overall, maybe due to the Modoki ElNino effect. Even though November is mild once the main part of winter begins it gets very cold, especially in the January's and again in the March's as well. Almost 1C below average overall is decent enough as a base state. Lets hope for a moderate Modoki ElNino for next winter.

Edited January 16, 2020 by SqueakheartLW

[summer blizzard]

Just read some analysis elsewhere showing that our best AO and MJO matches for the first half of January (both high amplitude) are 1993 and 2007.

Can anybody tell us what the CET was for the second half of January in those years and the first half of a February.

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Just read some analysis elsewhere showing that our best AO and MJO matches for the first half of January (both high amplitude) are 1993 and 2007.

Can anybody tell us what the CET was for the second half of January in those years and the first half of a February.

Oh dear. 

From memory, I remember February 1993 as fairly mild, and 2007 also mild, and both were followed by terrible summers. 

[summer blizzard]

Just now, Sunny76 said:

Oh dear. 

From memory, I remember February 1993 as fairly mild, and 2007 also mild, and both were followed by terrible summers. 

The monthly CET for Feb 93 was actually only 4.6C. 

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Oh dear. 

From memory, I remember February 1993 as fairly mild, and 2007 also mild, and both were followed by terrible summers. 

Feb 1993 brought a cold snowy end seem to remember, and a fairly chilly spring. Feb 2007 brought some snow early on, but was overall very mild. It also brought an excellent April, but the summer was very poor. Indeed both summers were preety poor overall. 

I'll stick my neck - shoot me down if it doesn't happen, but I remain very optimistic for next winter delivering at least some sustained cold conditions - law of probability given how we have had 4 out of last 6 winters bringing virtually no real cold weather.. too early to say whether it will be 5 out of 7..

Edited January 16, 2020 by damianslaw

[Stabilo19]

Some talk of very cold nights coming up Sat-Tues - but no model is forecasting this, not even close.

Mostly -1 to -3, few usual frost hollows will go lower but it's not that cold surely? Any thoughts?

[weather_it_will]

I can't see any sign of proper prolonged winter weather.

Time is running out, unless you want snow in the Spring.

Halfway now through Winter and only had about 3 frosty mornings.

I have said this before but all four seasons now have same dross weather.

I have to holiday out of UK to get proper sun and warmth.

Climate change is not happening in the UK. At least not in the summer when you want heat.

(Unless you live in in a small part of London or the south east that records the hottest day for about 10 seconds)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 17, 2020 by 'ColdIsBest'

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

would

 

43 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Just watched the catchup on BBC Wales weather and Derek went, cold weekend warming up again next week, so it's all tits up on here false as a WET fluff in a milk bottle, back down the garden path again, sick of this dross day in day out

 The actual  chance of any Northerly is beyond the timescale of that BBC forecast. 

The earlier ecm run would be for the backend of the following weekend, which is miles away in weather time, lol. 

 

 

[icykev]

42 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Just watched the catchup on BBC Wales weather and Derek went, cold weekend warming up again next week, so it's all tits up on here false as a WET fluff in a milk bottle, back down the garden path again, sick of this dross day in day out

Think you should get a grip best its looked all winter ❄ bbclocal

[A Frayed Knot]

17 minutes ago, icykev said:

Think you should get a grip best its looked all winter ❄ bbclocal

I hope so we need a cold winter, Blizzard I want though

[lassie23]

Beware of weather models bearing gifts .

[Radiating Dendrite]

30 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Beware of weather models bearing gifts .

In all fairness they never really beared any good though, just a few ok charts in FI.

I think it has been such slim pickings that such charts in a regular winter should not have been heralded as the second coming. Smells of desperation, this winter is clearly going nowhere.

[northwestsnow]

Oh well, it was nice to have a bit of interest, utterly garbage 00z runs as expected.

Just go away 'winter' 2019.

Enough.

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Beware of weather models bearing gifts .

LOL they're out to Get you 

[knocker]

Oh I don't know. A cold font plunges south