Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[The PIT]

16 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well we head towards mid January and I've seen two frost's.not a snowflake which in my area is unbelievable .people saying a toppler would suffice and bring in lower seasonal temps???can't see the point tbh

Yup sod all here Snow free so far and looks like the chances of a Snow free January are very high. The garden growing and spring is on the march. Very good or bad depending on how you look at it of recording the warmest Jan on record here.

[Summer of 95]

3 hours ago, trickydicky said:

I grew up in the western Lake District and went to university in Preston. I can remember it being revelatory to me how much warmer and dryer it was there! It can be incredibly crap in the North West weatherwise but it is occasionally compensated for by being easily the most beautiful part of the country (maybe not Oldham). I could never live in the south east, its just too busy and too flat! What has become marked over the last few winters is the absence of sun. Even the milder winters of the 90s would throw out a week of sun and frost. We live in a time when compared to our parents' time (60s) the seas are warmer and the jet is more powerful. Northerlies and easterlies don't stand much of a chance and when they do they aren't blowing off a frozen Arctic or Baltic Sea, or a cold continent so have less punch. Its a bit ironic that when back in the day they didn't have central heating or double glazing it was much colder, now we can deal with it much better we don't get it! I'm sure we'll get another cold spell at some point and we probably wont see it coming as we'll all have given up by then.

The one setup when NW England does do well is when the dreaded "North Sea Muck" arrives in spring and summer, spreads all the way across eastern England, often to Birmingham, sometimes even to the eastern part of Wales; and just sits there for hours refusing to burn off until well after midday despite the high sun, if it does at all. The Pennines keep it out of Lancashire, Cumbria and usually north Cheshire, somewhere like Blackpool can be 23C and sunny when most places are 14C and overcast. Perhaps small consolation for the rubbish they get in westerly setups, but it does make that the favoured area.

[Aleman]

After a cold day here there's been a spurt in temperatures only for them to quickly drop back again in some places like Topcliffe.

Decoded synop reports

WWW.OGIMET.COM

19 miles to the North at Leeming - no warm spike even:

Decoded synop reports

WWW.OGIMET.COM

Seen better here. Funny stuff weather. Topcliffe's had a cold (daylight hours) day yet a 12.4C high.  Similar at mine. We fleetingly spiked to 11.0C after dusk but it's been under 7C all day and back there now.

Weather reports from Topcliffe WMO (3265)

WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK

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A graphical and tabular preparation of weather observations of last week by the WMO weather station from Topcliffe, United Kingdom (3265). It is updated...

Weather reports from Leeming WMO (3257)

WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK

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A graphical and tabular preparation of weather observations of last week by the WMO weather station from Leeming, United Kingdom (3257). It is updated...

 

Edited January 14, 2020 by Aleman

[78/79]

A  week or so of High Pressure, and dry weather will do me just fine, if it's cold I can work and put on an extra layer, if it's chucking it down I can do diddly squat.

[topo]

Watching the weather models today, I think we are getting closer to January of 1989 and 1990.

They were by far the warmest here and maybe we can surpass them? Who knows..

What an awful winter, we are even struggling to get some below freezing lows.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, topo said:

Watching the weather models today, I think we are getting closer to January of 1989 and 1990.

They were by far the warmest here and maybe we can surpass them? Who knows..

What an awful winter, we are even struggling to get some below freezing lows.

It is a real stinker of a winter, that's for sure.  Not only is it very mild, it's also incredibly dull with a distinct lack of sunny days which does not help one's general mood!

[Stabilo19]

4 consecutive months of November dross seems to be the new normal

[Wilxy]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

It is a real stinker of a winter, that's for sure.  Not only is it very mild, it's also incredibly dull with a distinct lack of sunny days which does not help one's general mood!

At least the weekend looks bright and sunny!

[Sunny76]

4 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

 

Disagree, it's been very mild so far IMBY, and with no significant cold on the horizon - we could have one of the mildest Januaries on record! That's not normal.

This winter kind of reminds me of 1988/89 and 89/90, but I think even both of those contained cold frosty periods, despite this being the post 1987 milder winter period.

[Don]

4 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Might need to spend a few weeks in Canada/Scandinavia each winter going forward seeing the state of our kaput winters

Yep, I think that will be the way forward for snow lovers!

[Sunny76]

42 minutes ago, topo said:

Watching the weather models today, I think we are getting closer to January of 1989 and 1990.

They were by far the warmest here and maybe we can surpass them? Who knows..

What an awful winter, we are even struggling to get some below freezing lows.

Strange isn’t it. I remember 1989 being the first winter where it really did feel like the uk winters were changing, after realising 1987/88 wasn’t just a one off. By 1990, the milder weather continued.

Back to 19/20. I still think February may just provide something colder, but I fear this could slow the warm up in the spring. The last thing I want is a cold February to be followed by a cold March and April. 

[Sunny76]

Just now, Don said:

Yep, I think that will be the way forward for snow lovers!

There’s no guarantee. Even in the colder years, you can still get a mild blip. 
 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Strange isn’t it. I remember 1989 being the first winter where it really did feel like the uk winters were changing, after realising 1987/88 wasn’t just a one off. By 1990, the milder weather continued.

Back to 19/20. I still think February may just provide something colder, but I fear this could slow the warm up in the spring. The last thing I want is a cold February to be followed by a cold March and April. 

think we're looking at snowless January, (south) last few GFS runs suggest none, upto end Jan, really would not surprise me if we are here 2 months today, and most southern areas not seen a flake of snow, and hardly a frost

do uk winters exist anymore, they're certainly warm, TMW, Tom Martin Williams

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

This winter kind of reminds me of 1988/89 and 89/90, but I think even both of those contained cold frosty periods, despite this being the post 1987 milder winter period.

I don't recall any frosty spells during 1988-89. Just  5 air frosts for December 1988 and January 1989. It did get more "wintrier" during the second half of February 1989.

[SLEETY]

Finally maybe some white on the ground in a few days, amazing. 

I realise hoping for snow as well as frost  is like the same chance of winning the lottery, but maybe we can strike the jackpot, once this winter! 

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

I don't recall any frosty spells during 1988-89. Just  5 air frosts for December 1988 and January 1989. It did get more "wintrier" during the second half of February 1989.

I think that Dec 1988 and Jan 1989 produced only isolated frosts at night in many parts of the country, and the second half of Feb 1989 did see favoured areas receive the only snowfall of the winter although even then it was never widespread and it was a snowless winter for most parts of the country, and saw next to nothing in the way of cold snaps let alone cold spells.

[Stabilo19]

A bit more seasonal next week down south but nothing to scream out.

 

What are the chances of it being bitterly cold in March and April. Torture! 

[Number 23]

Never usually interested in spring at this early stage, but I'm already looking forward to the first day I leave work at dusk rather than in the dark. That's always a nice turning point, but this year I'm counting the days down. 

Cannot wait for the warmer longer days given the gloom which has felt unending this season. 

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Number 23 said:

Never usually interested in spring at this early stage, but I'm already looking forward to the first day I leave work at dusk rather than in the dark. That's always a nice turning point, but this year I'm counting the days down. 

Cannot wait for the warmer longer days given the gloom which has felt unending this season. 

I keep winter records and so far this winter we have had 16 dull/cloudy days which have had calm or slight breeze conditions (what I call bland days) and this doesn't even include the days with rainfall like today which says it all!....sadly it feels more winters are becoming like this, I sorted myself out with plenty of Vitamin D tablets in October.

[Sunny76]

18 hours ago, Aleman said:

Yes, it's ruining OUR snow. Temperatures are up and sea ice decreasing but snow extent is still actually marginally increasing in the Northern Hemisphere in the satellite era - just not in western Europe.

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

CLIMATE.RUTGERS.EDU

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Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

If we look at this winter, extent is currently very near average but it must be deeper since snow water-equivalent is about 10-25% above average, depending on which measure.

GCW Trackers

GLOBALCRYOSPHEREWATCH.ORG

I have connections to Texas. They're getting more snow in recent years. Snow settled in northern and/or central Texas 7 times before Christmas. It usually averages less than once per year but it's snowed in Houston 5 times in the last two winters. It never snowed when I lived there for 6 years in the 70s.

Snow in Houston happens more than you think

ABC13.COM

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SNOW DAY! Did you know since 1881, it has snowed 94 times in Houston?

If snow is still coming in similar amounts, we'll probably get our turn again soon. Looking back, 2-4 years after a solar minimum looks a likely timeframe for us, especially if enhanced with a bit of cooling volcanic activity at the minimum. There's been a lot of rumblings lately. Maybe we're setting up for a wintery 2022-23?

 

 

I think the second term of Trump will see a shift to colder winters, starting in 2020/21.

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

think we're looking at snowless January, (south) last few GFS runs suggest none, upto end Jan, really would not surprise me if we are here 2 months today, and most southern areas not seen a flake of snow, and hardly a frost

do uk winters exist anymore, they're certainly warm, TMW, Tom Martin Williams

I wouldn’t necessarily say warm. Mild and damp is still chilly, especially when it’s raining. But, I take your point. This winter has been absent of cold and frost

Such a shame as November seemed to show some promise of cold and it felt cold back then.

Bring back winter 2017/18 please. 

[Sceptical]

Couple of pictures from January 2019:

 

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by Sceptical

[BlueHedgehog074]

Don’t wanna throw in the towel, as their are still a few more months to go that could deliver the magic white stuff some of us crave for. But must say, this Winter is becoming a real drag and it’s getting depressing.

The only thing is, some of the drier weather developing towards the weekend and into next week as High Pressure becomes more invasive, will be nice. And could bring about some cheerier moods. I don’t mind mild or dry, or even cold and dry weather in Winter. Nor even days’ of sunshine and dramatic showers. The odd windstorm I don’t mind either.

Again, the lack of snow is making this Winter feel quite bleak. Hate getting so down about it when there’s more to life than the white stuff, although it does brighten the landscapes up and for me, is much, much, more preferable than rain. Pretty to watch the snowflakes fall gently to the ground. 

Haven’t even had any showers with any proper hail in them, even though this Friday may come to the rescue regarding that. Though keeping that excitement in check for now.

Love for the next few months to bring about some white surprises and just hope the general hints of some strong(ish) European heights some long term models have shown (if they do still show that scenario), will be off the mark. Appreciate that stubborn European High Pressure would be welcome for a few. And at least if it was close enough, it could bring more in the way of settled weather rather than a continuation of wet conditions, bar again next week where it could be more settled for a time. Also, there could be a chance that should this happen, some (maybe brief) breaks from the European High might occur. 

Perhaps the real possibility of the MJO reaching the high-level phase 7 mark could still bring some favourable conditions for some chillier and wintrier outbreaks for the UK for a while. Wish it would go into high amplitude phase 9 though - probably bring about some ultra, mega, blocking conditions with very very deep cold and super snow for the UK... (But then I know for some, deep cold and snow can bring a lot of chaos, particularly some of the elderly). 

I realise that it’s easy to become impatient for wintry weather worrying when the charts look unsatisfying for snow, that it may never come at all. This is despite the fact that here in the central Midlands, we usually get some snow at some point during the Winter. 

Because of the way things seems to be currently going, I just want it to be Spring now. It’s just felt like being inside some tight cage this Winter. One that’s so hard to break out of. I think Don is right as well, a lack of sunshine in a number of places probably hasn’t helped with how people been feeling. And the low Vitamin D.

(Mind, it’s sunny at the moment lol ).

Edited January 15, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Number 23 said:

Never usually interested in spring at this early stage, but I'm already looking forward to the first day I leave work at dusk rather than in the dark. That's always a nice turning point, but this year I'm counting the days down. 

Cannot wait for the warmer longer days given the gloom which has felt unending this season. 

Ditto. I hope we get an early taste of spring in February like we did last year. In fact, I’d take a February like 2019 or 1998 every year.

Edited January 15, 2020 by cheese

[MP-R]

43 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

 

Because of the way things seems to be currently going, I just want it to be Spring now. It’s just felt like being inside some tight cage this Winter. One that’s so hard to break out of. I think Don is right as well, a lack of sunshine in a number of places probably hasn’t helped with how people been feeling. And the low Vitamin D.

(Mind, it’s sunny at the moment lol ).

It also doesn't help that broadly we've been in this disgusting pattern since the second half of September. October and November felt like wet winter months so by December, fatigue was already setting in. December and January thus far have then been even more like November so maximum boredom is well and truly established.

Looking better beyond Friday though. Dry, bright and with some frost will be a very welcome change (bare minimum expectation of course) but miles better than what we've been stuck with over the last 4+ months.