Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[damianslaw]

Just now, Don said:

I wouldn't say this is a normal winter, even by the modern standards.  That said, it most likely will become the norm as the years pass!

I'd describe winter 13/14 and Dec 15 as rather abnormal, the weather patterns of the winter so far, have been preety normal really.. 

[Gowon]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No respite for coldies on the latest ec46 .... euro high persists throughout the period post week 2

Sheesh, you sound like a broken record 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'd describe winter 13/14 and Dec 15 as rather abnormal, the weather patterns of the winter so far, have been preety normal really.. 

Agreed, winter 13/14 was abnormal and December 2015 was just ridiculous!  However, I wouldn't say this winter has been normal.  December was warmer than average and January so far is running well above average.  Barely seen any frosts either.

Edited January 13, 2020 by Don

[Don]

4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Sheesh, you sound like a broken record 

Winter 2019/20 could be a broken record! 

Edited January 13, 2020 by Don

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Winter 2019/20 could be a broken record! 

We've still got February.. Hopefully that will be a record breaking cold month 

[Don]

Just now, D.V.R said:

We've still got February.. Hopefully that will be a record breaking cold month 

We can only dream, but anything's possible, just!

[Catacol]

10 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Unless it turns out that the +IOD has been overly dominant (we are extremely hampered by low sample size in determining this - and possibly a hint that low solar has been over-cooked as driver), it's been more a case of nothing overly supportive of cold pattern. The best indicator out there has been the MEI. That's been bumping around borderline El Nino for the last few months: 

ESRL : PSD : MEI.v2

WWW.ESRL.NOAA.GOV

---

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Departmant

 

Weak El Nino / warm ENSO neutral climatology is against cold patterns for Northern Europe during the early part of the winter, more conducive later on depending on other factors.

What patterns do you see in this Stewart? To my eye it's a pretty inconclusive indicator of much...

However I'm not liking the second graph of an indicator of parallel similar years. None of these had much cold within 2 years - apart from 2016 to the Beast....and that has to be seen as a somewhat freakish anomaly. If we get years like 88 or 99 next season I'll have to emigrate...

Edited January 13, 2020 by Catacol

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Another kaput run from GFS 18z following on from UKMO

[Sceptical]

10 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Another kaput run from GFS 18z following on from UKMO

At least it's entertaining

[Azazel]

11 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

One thing that would raise an eyebrow with me and that's to have a cool summer...haven't had one since 2012. More surprising than having a chilly winter, then again thinking about it maybe not, both becoming rare beasts.

We are certainly due one:( It's my fear - especially if this Winter finishes up as mild as it has been.

[Azazel]

14 hours ago, markyo said:

I rest my case,you've just proved my point exactly. Thank you. Not one single thing in that post makes sense,sorry.

Then no offence, but might I suggest reading comprehension?

Knocker made a post saying he doesn't understand how people on here can wish for ice and snow (I'm speculating this is a weather type he is not keen on)

Another user then made the comment (paraphrasing) that it's winter so there's absolutely nothing wrong with wishing for ice and snow (which I agree with).

But for you to then come along like "BRAVO WELL SAID" and then whinge for the entire summer about how warm it is and how people are crazy for wanting hot weather and how unpleasant it is, is hilariously hypocritical.

I also don't understand your "one rule for some, a different rule for others" comment because you get away with complaining from May-September and are free to do so.

[stainesbloke]

12 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

One thing that would raise an eyebrow with me and that's to have a cool summer...haven't had one since 2012. More surprising than having a chilly winter, then again thinking about it maybe not, both becoming rare beasts.

That’s true. Though I hope never to experience a summer like 2012 again. Absolutely ghastly (barring some of August). Something a little more seasonal to come, if current output is to be believed, once we get the wind and rain out of the way. 

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Then no offence, but might I suggest reading comprehension?

Knocker made a post saying he doesn't understand how people on here can wish for ice and snow (I'm speculating this is a weather type he is not keen on)

Another user then made the comment (paraphrasing) that it's winter so there's absolutely nothing wrong with wishing for ice and snow (which I agree with).

But for you to then come along like "BRAVO WELL SAID" and then whinge for the entire summer about how warm it is and how people are crazy for wanting hot weather and how unpleasant it is, is hilariously hypocritical.

I also don't understand your "one rule for some, a different rule for others" comment because you get away with complaining from May-September and are free to do so.

Just to clarify this comment. I understand perfectly why people wish for ice and snow and have no problem with this whatsoever. One of the most exciting weather events in these parts in the last couple of years was when a wave formed on the front south of the Lizard,, some colder air was entrained, and moderate rain turned to moderate snow within minutes. Mayhem quickly reigned

I just find the continual and repetitive searching for the Holy Grail in the depths of Fi which have absolutely no chance of verify, at the expense of everything else of interest, quite boring and pointless. But I Have said this enough times I'm now boring myself so will just shut up on the subject

.

[Weather-history]

16 hours ago, knocker said:

Interesting that your not the frost to***r in here to infer that i have no interest in weather...of all types or that having an interest in synoptic meteorology is both boring and sterile and has no place here.

What gets me knocker, are people who pop up out of  hibernation November and disappear the following April especially those who post in the model discussion with their analyses.

They are not weather lovers, sure you can have preferences, but weather is all year, all round not just the cold season. 

[trickydicky]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

i just find the continual and repetitive searching for the Holy Grail in the depths of Fi which have absolutely no chance of verify, at the expense of everything else of interest, quite boring and pointless. But I Have said this enough times I'm now boring myself so will just shut up on the subject

.

The best way I can put it, as someone who lives in Cumbria, is it was wet and windy yesterday, it’s wet and windy today, it’ll probably be wet and windy tomorrow, and next week, and the week after that. Probably in March and April too. There’s nothing to get excited about. Just like if you had spaghetti bolognese every night for tea  you wouldn’t get excited about having it for tea tonight. You’re talking about waves forming on fronts, just like a chef might get excited about how the bolognese sauce is made, but that’s over most peoples heads and they don’t know what it means or how you’d even see it. Snow is beautiful and rare and doesn’t happen every week all year round, so people get excited about it. They are interested in that excitement, about experiencing something rare that they enjoy, not about what happened a mile above their heads to make it happen. It might seem childish to a retired meteorologist, but that’s how it is. 

[mb018538]

12 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

One thing that would raise an eyebrow with me and that's to have a cool summer...haven't had one since 2012. More surprising than having a chilly winter, then again thinking about it maybe not, both becoming rare beasts.

Ah god no - we had horrendous some summers after the glorious 2003! The mid 2000s to early 2010s were particularly rotten.

2004 - worst and wettest August I can remember, Boscastle floods
2007 - terrible
2008 - poor
2011 - poor
2012 - June/July awful, August only a bit better
2015 - Poor throughout, despite record July maximum of 36.7c
2017 - July and August were bad....June was nice down here but in the north was terrible
2018 - Holy Grail! June and July combined the best 2 summer months I can remember. No measurable rain here for 7 weeks.

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

The best way I can put it, as someone who lives in Cumbria, is it was wet and windy yesterday, it’s wet and windy today, it’ll probably be wet and windy tomorrow, and next week, and the week after that. Probably in March and April too. There’s nothing to get excited about. Just like if you had spaghetti bolognese every night for tea  you wouldn’t get excited about having it for tea tonight. You’re talking about waves forming on fronts, just like a chef might get excited about how the bolognese sauce is made, but that’s over most peoples heads and they don’t know what it means or how you’d even see it. Snow is beautiful and rare and doesn’t happen every week all year round, so people get excited about it. They are interested in that excitement, about experiencing something rare that they enjoy, not about what happened a mile above their heads to make it happen. It might seem childish to a retired meteorologist, but that’s how it is. 

I understand what you saying and  empathize with the points you make and no it doesn't seem childish to me. But what does come across as very childish to me is to manipulate the model output, and you cannot ignore the meteorological angle here, to continually enact some fantasy which apparently serves as  a proxy for these dreams, whilst ignoring other significant weather events.

Edited January 14, 2020 by knocker

[stainesbloke]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

I understand what you saying and  empathize with the points you make and no it doesn't seem childish to me. But what does come across as very childish to me is to manipulate the model output, and you cannot ignore the meteorological angle here, to continually enact some fantasy which apparently serves as  a proxy for these dreams, whilst ignoring other significant weather events.

It is definitely childish, granted. But surely arguing with idiots only serves to make them even worse? Many people on here undoubtedly enjoy your posts (myself included) and your obvious depth of meteorological knowledge. I do understand people wanting something wintry, in winter, just as many want something summery, in summer. The snow obsession is certainly OTT at times, but there’s always the ignore button...

[trickydicky]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

I understand what you saying and  empathize with the points you make and no it doesn't seem childish to me. But what does come across as very childish to me is to manipulate the model output, and you cannot ignore the meteorological angle here, to continually enact some fantasy which apparently serves as  a proxy for these dreams, whilst ignoring other significant weather events.

I agree with that but I can’t ‘read’ the models so I suppose I can’t knock people who try.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

10 hours ago, Sceptical said:

At least it's entertaining

It’s like watching candy snatched away from kids

Edited January 14, 2020 by prolongedSnowLover

[Iceaxecrampon]

FI* showing a Northern pipeline opening if anyones remotely interested to break the monotony......

I've just about given up.

(*) Disclaimer

The chart is FI

[Mapantz]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

They rarely last that long that strength. I think mid February 2008, we had about a week of high pressure of 1030mb+, that comes to mind

From my own data, between December 28th 2018 and January 12th 2019, the pressure didn't drop below 1030mb. Pressure range was 1030.8mb - 1044.5mb.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Ah god no - we had horrendous some summers after the glorious 2003! The mid 2000s to early 2010s were particularly rotten.

2004 - worst and wettest August I can remember, Boscastle floods
2007 - terrible
2008 - poor
2011 - poor
2012 - June/July awful, August only a bit better
2015 - Poor throughout, despite record July maximum of 36.7c
2017 - July and August were bad....June was nice down here but in the north was terrible
2018 - Holy Grail! June and July combined the best 2 summer months I can remember. No measurable rain here for 7 weeks.

Seriously I'm not going to get in an argument of what is 'bad' for a summer month (in the middle of winter) and notice you come from Cambridge so not up north, yes we have had some mixed summer months of recent years but a large percentage of them have been warmer than normal and the only 'bad' summer month I can recollect of the last 6/7 years is June last year but we do all have our own opinions of what 'bad' is and depending of what age you are...personally feel we have been spoilt since 2012 for summer months if warmth and sun is your thing (and other late spring and early autumn months) but then again I live in the far south east, the driest portion of the UK and not far from the continent.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[northwestsnow]

Christ its proving a struggle to even register a ruddy frost.

The 00z runs confirmed my fears last night.

ie a dirty high ..

I had a couple of days were i was hoping for a change, that's evaporating again at a rate of knots.

No sign whatsoever of even the MJO having much effect on the horrific pattern.

On a brighter note it looks dry after fri for a week or so, the wind and rain just goes on and on .

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not like me to moan gang, but my god if the weather online seasonal is on the money!!! 

Drier than average February..... Temps around average... And drier and sunnier March with temps perhaps above average!! If this comes off, I really want my money back. Has it stands I have yet to see a falling snow flake since late Feb 2018! The last significant frost was early December! A complete pigs dinner of a winter, maybe next year I won't even bother hunting for it...