Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What at 300z + hours?...I don't even bother looking at the GFS anymore.

The Gefs mean is not above average throughout anymore and drops just below average around mid month for a few days on the 6z run. Let’s see how far south the troughs can dig down in the coming runs...

I’m not even looking at the cold solutions in lalaland.

Edited January 8, 2020 by prolongedSnowLover

[Azazel]

50 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Agree...counted 15 days already so far this winter with nondescript cloudy/dull calmish days, thank god for the Vitamin D supply. 

I'm trying to get my head around just how boring this winter is...that tornado going over the M25 is the highlight.

Indeed - i've ran out and am loathe to get my repeat prescription on order, but i probably should!

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

Struggling with the complete lack of sunlight here now.

Winter in the UK is a nightmare for that - seemingly never-ending grey skies Not been that much better in Prague, a few sunny, cold days recently have helped but it’s back to grey today. Yawn.

[stainesbloke]

55 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Agree...counted 15 days already so far this winter with nondescript cloudy/dull calmish days, thank god for the Vitamin D supply. 

I'm trying to get my head around just how boring this winter is...that tornado going over the M25 is the highlight.

Yes, very dreary. The small positive is it’s not relentlessly raining anymore. But otherwise, nothing much is going on. Such a shame as changeable weather in winter can be very interesting, especially when the temperatures vary a lot. At least we’ve had a few sharp frosts this past week in Prague, but not much else.

[jules216]

52 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, very dreary. The small positive is it’s not relentlessly raining anymore. But otherwise, nothing much is going on. Such a shame as changeable weather in winter can be very interesting, especially when the temperatures vary a lot. At least we’ve had a few sharp frosts this past week in Prague, but not much else.

On the other side of former Czechoslovakian border  we are having reasonable wintry weather since 26.12, sharp frosts and few dustings of up to 4cm are highlights of quite a poor winter overall. I have come close to -10C few nights now and barely reached zero during the day, it would probably still qualify as a winter of decade in UK standards  plenty of sunshine as well, no inversion since Friday last week when we only reached -4C Tmax, this could have been much worse then it is turning out to be on surface.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, very dreary. The small positive is it’s not relentlessly raining anymore. But otherwise, nothing much is going on. Such a shame as changeable weather in winter can be very interesting, especially when the temperatures vary a lot. At least we’ve had a few sharp frosts this past week in Prague, but not much else.

Looking at the charts for the next few days I find that comment a tad odd. Of course I could be getting different outputs which is not that unusual

[Diamond Joe]

What a flipping useless Winter so far........at this point id settle for a flipping frost!!!!

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

On the other side of former Czechoslovakian border  we are having reasonable wintry weather since 26.12, sharp frosts and few dustings of up to 4cm are highlights of quite a poor winter overall. I have come close to -10C few nights now and barely reached zero during the day, it would probably still qualify as a winter of decade in UK standards  plenty of sunshine as well, no inversion since Friday last week when we only reached -4C Tmax, this could have been much worse then it is turning out to be on surface.

Sounds like you are getting more normal winter weather in Slovensko. Prague has been different, nothing cold apart from a few frosts. There have been some beautiful sunny days but also a lot of cloudy, quiet weather. The lack of snow or rain has been noticeable, though this afternoon we are having a couple of hours of rain (typically as I started to tidy the terrace plants lol). 

[Nick L]

8 hours ago, Azazel said:

Struggling with the complete lack of sunlight here now.

I think that's partly why this winter has been so awful all round. If we can't get snow, a cold high pressure would be nice as at least we'd get sunshine. If we can't even get that, then at least be stormy - something interesting. This mild, drab rubbish suits nobody.

[Azazel]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think that's partly why this winter has been so awful all round. If we can't get snow, a cold high pressure would be nice as at least we'd get sunshine. If we can't even get that, then at least be stormy - something interesting. This mild, drab rubbish suits nobody.

I agree. Not a cold fan as stated many many times haha, but I really don't mind cold weather so long as its bright, sunny and crisp. Would give anything for that right now!

[jules216]

20 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Sounds like you are getting more normal winter weather in Slovensko. Prague has been different, nothing cold apart from a few frosts. There have been some beautiful sunny days but also a lot of cloudy, quiet weather. The lack of snow or rain has been noticeable, though this afternoon we are having a couple of hours of rain (typically as I started to tidy the terrace plants lol). 

I live in Gemer region with unique orography and weather patterns that can conserve precious cold surface as it takes some westerly to blow through our valley,I never took that in until I returned home from 15 years living in Ireland,I am also proud that we have a village in northern Gemer that is called Stratena which is most likely the coldest habitable village in central Europe with annual mean temperature of 5.3C. Last two nights it got down to -18C there and from analogue records they used to remain skiing up to a month longer then in Tatra mountains some winters,its a gem for all cold weather maniacs

[Weather-history]

Looks like a warm weekend for the east coast of the US

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/record-challenging-warmth-to-greet-millions-in-central-eastern-us-at-weeks-end/656718

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 12 z atleast has potential in fI

No bartlet

[Don]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

I think that's partly why this winter has been so awful all round. If we can't get snow, a cold high pressure would be nice as at least we'd get sunshine. If we can't even get that, then at least be stormy - something interesting. This mild, drab rubbish suits nobody.

Indeed, that’s exactly what I’m finding particularly horrible about this winter.  Day after day of grey skies and a distinct lack of sunlight does not help one’s mood!

[Sceptical]

On the subject of winter and sunlight.

Taken today on the hills around the house.

 

[Summer Sun]

Something rare has happened overnight snow has fallen in parts of Scotland.

 

[mb018538]

48 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Something rare has happened overnight snow has fallen in parts of Scotland.

 

Nice to see a bit of the white stuff. No doubt some will use this as evidence that winter hasn't been all that bad because a bit of high ground in Northern England & Scotland has seen a dusting of snow. In other news - grass is green and chickens lay eggs.

[Summer Sun]

Confirmation December had the warmest day on record

 

[Zippo]

55 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Confirmation December had the warmest day on record

 

Out of interest, how many official weather stations are there now compared to in 1948?

[igloo]

things are starting to look better finally  from mid month.surprised this morning with 2inches of the white stuff lying first for more than 12 months that's how bad it's been but better things to come me thinks northwest looks like getting a pasting

 

[cheese]

On 08/01/2020 at 15:52, Nick L said:

I think that's partly why this winter has been so awful all round. If we can't get snow, a cold high pressure would be nice as at least we'd get sunshine. If we can't even get that, then at least be stormy - something interesting. This mild, drab rubbish suits nobody.

Fine by me as long as it’s dry. Stormy weather can stay well away.

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Zippo said:

Out of interest, how many official weather stations are there now compared to in 1948?

Thats a good question, I really don't know the answer but you don't see places like Greenwich and Gravesend quoted any more.

[Summer Sun]

The coldest night of January so far overnight with clearing skies after midnight giving us a low of +1.2c

[Sceptical]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The coldest night of January so far overnight with clearing skies after midnight giving us a low of +1.2c

Easily the coldest night of January so far Overnight low of -7C.

Currently-7C at 10.10am.

[swfc]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

but of course it has to be a perfect match for cold in Eastern US without any worries of jet streams vortexes etc, then you look at Europe and see euro high instead of a strong signal of euro through. If it happens to be the case close to reality I am not sure what is the point in even pulling out these MJO analysis and hoping for models to switch towards their composite anomalies if we are in long term lock down under Euro high, when zonal winds were weak and strat. decoupled from troposphere we still managed the same anomaly in Europe as we have now under strong vortex, the same goes for AAM weather or not it is high or low we still manage same pattern in Europe. Yet America responded almost instantly to positive teleconective change in early December and perhaps with upcoming period around 20th Jan.

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

but of course it has to be a perfect match for cold in Eastern US without any worries of jet streams vortexes etc, then you look at Europe and see euro high instead of a strong signal of euro through. If it happens to be the case close to reality I am not sure what is the point in even pulling out these MJO analysis and hoping for models to switch towards their composite anomalies if we are in long term lock down under Euro high, when zonal winds were weak and strat. decoupled from troposphere we still managed the same anomaly in Europe as we have now under strong vortex, the same goes for AAM weather or not it is high or low we still manage same pattern in Europe. Yet America responded almost instantly to positive teleconective change in early December and perhaps with upcoming period around 20th Jan.

 

Good post imo.there seems to have become a trend when people quote these mjo,solar min and sst etc without any real guidance to when and where.if nothing else should make folk a bit cautious is last year's shambles by the pros etc on the terrible meto forecasts .I remember many on here ignoring the models and getting very carried away on there daily updates???