Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

London to get its first snowfall in March - which will melt by 9:45AM!

You’d better get up early then! 

[emmett garland]

Im going for Feb  6th and lasting 8 days...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

If everyone is playing guess the cold / snow date I will join in for a bit of fun. My prediction is 16th February (possibly lasting around 4 days). Funnily enough I just checked the cfs (yes I know it is the cfs )  That would do 

 

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

If everyone is playing guess the cold / snow date I will join in for a bit of fun. My prediction is 16th February (possibly lasting around 4 days). Funnily enough I just checked the cfs (yes I know it is the cfs )  That would do 

 

Hey KW, good choice there, that's my birthday.....

It's quite often snowed around that time or just before even down here, nice present!

[topo]

This winter seems identical to awful 88-89 and 89-90.

I can't see how the pattern can change, the seasonal models nailed it this time

[damianslaw]

Current feeling are reminding me very much of winter 07-08 which had come on the back of a very mild snowless winter in 06-07 just like last year and a run of largely mild winters beforehand going back to 00-01 not quite same league of mildness as 13-14 and 15-16 mind. Indeed up to that juncture it had been a very long 11 years since any lengthy cold snowy spell a la dec 96 - Jan 96. What then happened we had 08-09.. not saying this will happen next winter.. but for those bemoaning how our winters seem destined for no cold or snow look at the change in fortune then.. also that winter was just after solar minimum.. alas interesting to note the cold Easter and early April snow in 2008.. all that bottled up cold eventually spilled out . For cold snow lovers let's hope if this winter pans out like rest of 08 the cold comes at least a month earlier optimum time for potent arctic air and it would be very potent this year. This is not a forecast more just a post to get some balance in what is fast becoming a thread full of loss of perspective.

[Weather-history]

On 05/01/2020 at 21:35, damianslaw said:

We've had runs of back to back mild winters in the last 45 years or so, far more common than back to back cold or even just average winters:

74/75 and 75/76

87/88-89/90 (3)

91/92/92/93

97/98-99/00 - 3

06/07-07/08

15/16-16/17 - 2

 

You've could added 1993-94 and 1994-95 to 1991-92 and 1992-93 

..and 1973-74 to 1974-75 and 1975-76

 

 

 

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

..and 1973-74 to 1974-75 and 1975-76

 

 

 

Add in 1971-72 as well.

They were bad winters for winter lovers. 

Manchester Winter Indices

1971-72: 32

1972-73: 50

1973-74: 27

1974-75: 22

1975-76: 38

 

 

[knocker]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Current feeling are reminding me very much of winter 07-08 which had come on the back of a very mild snowless winter in 06-07 just like last year and a run of largely mild winters beforehand going back to 00-01 not quite same league of mildness as 13-14 and 15-16 mind. Indeed up to that juncture it had been a very long 11 years since any lengthy cold snowy spell a la dec 96 - Jan 96. What then happened we had 08-09.. not saying this will happen next winter.. but for those bemoaning how our winters seem destined for no cold or snow look at the change in fortune then.. also that winter was just after solar minimum.. alas interesting to note the cold Easter and early April snow in 2008.. all that bottled up cold eventually spilled out . For cold snow lovers let's hope if this winter pans out like rest of 08 the cold comes at least a month earlier optimum time for potent arctic air and it would be very potent this year. This is not a forecast more just a post to get some balance in what is fast becoming a thread full of loss of perspective.

Your such a wag Damian

[Erdem]

The records over last 30 years or so show mild December and Jan is usually then followed by a mild Feb , relentless persistence of pattern

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, Erdem said:

The records over last 30 years or so show mild December and Jan is usually then followed by a mild Feb , relentless persistence of pattern

I think that is a reasonable call.

The weather though can make fools of us all.

Which is precisely why the jury is still out for Feb.

[swfc]

45 minutes ago, Erdem said:

The records over last 30 years or so show mild December and Jan is usually then followed by a mild Feb , relentless persistence of pattern

Good point there.in my limited opinion I think march is the month that can deliver a cold spell.the PV weakening etc altho day light and the sun's strength can limit snow cover.guess it's a suck it and see but the euro heighths for me have all but done for january

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, Erdem said:

The records over last 30 years or so show mild December and Jan is usually then followed by a mild Feb , relentless persistence of pattern

I was lead to believe the opposite! 2010 the most recent example... The cold spell really never came back during the New Year. 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I was lead to believe the opposite! 2010 the most recent example... The cold spell really never came back during the New Year. 

I have an alternative hypothesis Matt: Every possible type of December & January, under the sun, is usually followed by a mild February? Though I am, perhaps, being a tad pessimistic?

[summer blizzard]

What is your current index score WH and how does it compare to 02-08 and 14-19.

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I have an alternative hypothesis Matt: Every possible type of December & January, under the sun, is usually followed by a mild February? Though I am, perhaps, being a tad pessimistic?

when was the last truly cold February in the UK? 1991?

[Don]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

when was the last truly cold February in the UK? 1991?

Yes, I would say so.

[snowray]

I was convinced that it was 1996, but in fact we had a very cold spell in late January that year and Feb was milder. There was also a dumping of snow in the SE about 10/11 years ago in mid February if I remember right, the polystyrene pellet event on the east coast but heavy snowfall in London.

So we are due a big February freeze...could be February 2020!

[Mr Frost]

I will just leave these here regarding the mild recent February’s and the last cold February.  (Mean temperatures against the 1981 - 2010 anomaly)

Febuary 2012: (Below average for parts of the South/South East/South West)

February 2013: (Below average for most of the UK)

 

February 2015: (Below average for parts of NI, Wales, South/South West England)

 

February 2016: (Below average in parts of Scotland and NI)

February 2018: (Below average for 99% of the UK)

 

Also just seen the Met Office outlook - looks a little better going forward.

Hopefully for us (cold/snow lovers) we see a flip in the pattern for a wintry spell (UK and Ireland wide in February at least!)

Edited January 7, 2020 by Mr Frost

[markw2680]

33 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

 

Also just seen the Met Office outlook - looks a little better going forward.

Hopefully for us (cold/snow lovers) we see a flip in the pattern for a wintry spell in February at least!

I hope we do see a dramatic change later this month because let’s be frank it can’t be any worse surely.

if somehow we do manage to get a decent feb with cold and snow all this mild muck and crud will be long forgotten about.

its a long long road.....

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

February 2018: (Below average for 99% of the UK)

A little excessive these MetO anomaly charts I feel though obviously variations and I'm near the coast...we didn't really get any cold conditions until 25th and then very cold 27th onwards in 2018 and this is showing between -1.5-2.5c below normal for the 1981-2010 period (which must say it all) for many parts of the south east. My readings for that month were -0.8c below normal based a mean of 4.4c for Essex. February 2012  +0.1c  February 2013 -0.95c

You probably have to go back to 1996 or 1991 for the last 'real' cold February.

By the way my thermometers are British standard sheathed and in a Stevenson Screen.

Edited January 7, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[Mr Frost]

43 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

A little excessive these MetO anomaly charts I feel though obviously variations and I'm near the coast...we didn't really get any cold conditions until 25th and then very cold 27th onwards in 2018 and this is showing between -1.5-2.5c below normal for the 1981-2010 period (which must say it all) for many parts of the south east. My readings for that month were -0.8c below normal based a mean of 4.4c for Essex. February 2012  +0.1c  February 2013 -0.95c

You probably have to go back to 1996 or 1991 for the last 'real' cold February.

By the way my thermometers are British standard sheathed and in a Stevenson Screen.

This is a good wee read below - interesting month. (I remember a cold start to the month and then obviously the BFTE arriving towards the end)

Personally that would be the last ‘real cold’ February for me. (I don’t remember 1991 or 1996)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/uk_monthly_climate_summary_201802.pdf

Edited January 7, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Summer Sun]

Quite a mild evening with the strong wind.

 

[Don]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm reading a few tweets suggestive of a SSW in Feb, possibly late Feb, which is as  useful as giving a bald man a comb as far as i'm concerned but maybe others would feel differently..

Could get a day of snow in late March/early April like 2008.  Better than nothing aye?

[PDM]

With these mild temperatures, I'm tempted to get the washing line out of the shed already, Only put it away at the end of October