Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[ptow]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I would be delighted if we see 2 consecutive ice days before the end of winter. The problem by mid Feb is the strength of the sun.

Which is why, personally speaking - Dec and Jan are the go to months, with the sun beginning to set by 3pm there is virtually no solar effect on any snowcover.

Oh well, clearly Dec and jan there isn't going to be any snowcover whatsoever.

You can get away with it until mid feb. 1991 saw very little melt and that was 8th onwards

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I wonder if the long range models have had some tweaks/upgrade last summer to be so accurately predicting mild winter so far.

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Some ridiculous posts here suggesting winter is over, and told you so posts, this is UK remember a mild climate in winter, where a week of prolonged cold and snow is never that common anyway. 

I still think we will see a dramatic change later in the winter then  all the posters claiming the whole winter will be mild will dissappear as they usually do when cold weather arrives. 

It's not ridiculous. EVERY indicator shows a continuance of Euro heights and Atlantic troughs with the UK in the West or South Westerly airstream.

What is ridiculous is folk suggesting Winter is not over but providing no evidence to back up their statement.

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I wonder if the long range models have had some tweaks/upgrade last summer to be so accurately predicting mild winter so far.

I think your onto something there, I was thinking that. At the very least by now we should have seen some half decent charts out in FI, popping up temporarily to tickle our fancy, the usual false dawns that turn into nothing.

Edited January 6, 2020 by snowray

[Carl46Wrexham]

Classic +NAO pattern..Raging Polar Vortex, persistent Euro heights. I’ll not go so far as to say winter is over (could be argued that it hasn’t even started yet) but I for one would be prepared to chuck January in the bin. Once this pattern establishes, it has a nasty tendency to lock in for a number of weeks. 

[Bristawl Si]

51 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Really tempted to cut the lawn today. Super mild here for early January; i smell an early arrival of Spring.

Plan scuppered. Just started raining.

[Mr Frost]

42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What is ridiculous is folk suggesting Winter is not over but providing no evidence to back up their statement.

I can provide the best evidence to back up any statement that Winter is not over...check this out... 

Meteorological Winter started on 01/12/2019 and ends 29/02/2020.

Astronomical Winter started on 22/12/2019 and ends 20/03/2020.

I honestly think yourself, @CreweCold @Don @I remember Atlantic 252 @swfc@northwestsnow (at times this Winter) should start a a wee Winter is over thread. Think of the great fun you would all have being negative every single day to just each other? 
 

Cmon now it is only the weather - relax and enjoy the ride. 
We always have a ticket to snow/cold in the UK and Ireland but most years those tickets are fake! 

Still plenty of time for some wintry weather and if this does not happen...we have another chance next Winter. 
 

Here is the sunrise I captured this morning to bring some Winter cheer to this thread. (Still a beautiful time of the year without snow/cold weather)

@Nick L I prefer the ramps side of it - not writing off every season of the year before or during it. (Same folk no matter if it’s Spring, Summer, Autumn or Winter plus it spills into the MOD thread)

Have a good day. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Nick L]

If you're unhappy with the moans about this winter, I suggest you steer clear of a thread dedicated to moans about this winter.

[northwestsnow]

38 minutes ago, Nick L said:

If you're unhappy with the moans about this winter, I suggest you steer clear of a thread dedicated to moans about this winter.

Quite.

I actually feel even in the mod thread the mood has been broadly speaking, spat free in the face of appalling synoptics.

Maybe resignation has crept in.

[northwestsnow]

@Mr Frost

Yes, i understand people repeating the same message can be annoying 

Most of my posts are in this thread as the last thing i want to do is upset members with my constant whinging.

I think we both know we are both wanting winter weather so bear in mind we are after the same thing.

 

[cheeky_monkey]

First real cold outbreak of the season coming up here from today onward...looks like hanging around for the pretty much the rest of January.

[snowray]

36 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

First real cold outbreak of the season coming up here from today onward...looks like hanging around for the pretty much the rest of January.

Really, what do you consider to be real cold though over there?

[Stabilo19]

I don't think the upcoming weather IMBY can be described as average for January - more akin to November. 

 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

I don't think the upcoming weather IMBY can be described as average for January - more akin to November. 

 

Personally, I don't think we can describe the UK in four seasons anymore. With advanced climate change I believe our seasons have already changed. 

Mid April - Mid June - Spring

Mid June - Mid September  - Summer

Mid September - Mid November - Autumn Spell 1

Mid November - Early December - Winter Spell 1

Mid December - Early March - Autumn Spell 2

Mid March - April - Winter Spell 2

This is down to the loss of sea ice and subsequent delay in the PV ramping up so our best chance of cold is now around late November and then into March. The former Winter  months are just becoming an extension of Autumn.

 

[MP-R]

50 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Personally, I don't think we can describe the UK in four seasons anymore. With advanced climate change I believe our seasons have already changed. 

Mid April - Mid June - Spring

Mid June - Mid September  - Summer

Mid September - Mid November - Autumn Spell 1

Mid November - Early December - Winter Spell 1

Mid December - Early March - Autumn Spell 2

Mid March - April - Winter Spell 2

This is down to the loss of sea ice and subsequent delay in the PV ramping up so our best chance of cold is now around late November and then into March. The former Winter  months are just becoming an extension of Autumn.

 

All we’re missing is the springtime winter spell. Late March is normally the turning point to spring. I’ve yet to witness a proper winter spell that late.

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Personally, I don't think we can describe the UK in four seasons anymore. With advanced climate change I believe our seasons have already changed. 

Mid April - Mid June - Spring

Mid June - Mid September  - Summer

Mid September - Mid November - Autumn Spell 1

Mid November - Early December - Winter Spell 1

Mid December - Early March - Autumn Spell 2

Mid March - April - Winter Spell 2

This is down to the loss of sea ice and subsequent delay in the PV ramping up so our best chance of cold is now around late November and then into March. The former Winter  months are just becoming an extension of Autumn.

 

My only question would be...what is advanced climate change and is it affecting the UK? Browsing through recent seasons we are hovering just below and above the 1981-2010 Anomaly. 

Winter 2017/18 as a whole for the UK was 0.2 C below the 1981-2010 average - it also included a cold/wintry spell in each Winter month. (February for the UK was 1.3c below average)

 

 

Winter 2018/19 as a whole for the UK was 1.4c above the 1981-2010 average. (My location at sea level recorded settling snow in each Winter month)
 

Spring 2019 as a whole for the UK was 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average. 

 

Summer 2019 as a whole for the UK was 0.8c above the 1981-2010 average.

 

Autumn 2019 as a whole for the UK was 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average. 

 

Look at October and November for example:

 

All I see is regional differences alternating between cool/cold and mild/warm which is typical of the UK climate. (I don’t deny that other parts of the world are seeing much bigger issues) 

We (UK and Ireland) will all see snow again in December, January and February - it could be next Winter or ten years down the line.

The UK and Ireland has and always will feed off the cold/snow leftovers that are floating about - we are always on the edge of anything significant while (usually) East and North East of us is in the freezer.

Plus many of us get four seasons in one day at some stage during the year. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Mr Frost

[frosty ground]

On 01/01/2020 at 15:20, knocker said:

I note that the cold fraternity have taken to grasping at channel runners from the gfs nine days down the line, led by a two much respected professionals from NW. I have to say that this growing desperation in the search for cold and snow is quite unseemly.

O Look I spy a feature crossing the country a little bit further north than originally forecast, with time to correct south north or diaper altogether. 





Imagine mocking that 

[North-Easterly Blast]

6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Some ridiculous posts here suggesting winter is over, and told you so posts, this is UK remember a mild climate in winter, where a week of prolonged cold and snow is never that common anyway. 

I still think we will see a dramatic change later in the winter then  all the posters claiming the whole winter will be mild will dissappear as they usually do when cold weather arrives. 

I would say that a week of prolonged cold and snow for favoured parts is around what could reasonably be expected in an average UK winter.  What is the exception and not the norm is weeks dominated by this setup ala 1962-63, 1978-79 etc, or 2009-10 or spells like Dec 2010, whereas it is equally not the norm for a UK winter to pass by without any snow falling in most parts of the country and little frost either, which is what 2013-14 did and so did a number of other winters in the last 30 odd years.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

Really, what do you consider to be real cold though over there?

this is the next week

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

this is the next week

Iam considering 10 days in Edmonton CM, probably late November.

What sort of conditions would one expect late Nov if you don't mind me asking.

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Stabilo19]

56 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

My only question would be...what is advanced climate change and is it affecting the UK? Browsing through recent seasons we are hovering just below and above the 1981-2010 Anomaly. 

The UK's heatwaves are getting more extreme, but the "coldwaves" are not reaching the same extremes.

Also:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Iam considering 10 days in Edmonton CM, probably late November.

What sort of conditions would one expect late Nov if you don't mind me asking.

 

Hi North West, CM could be at work being as its 10.30am there got some graphs for you though mate. 

[Sceptical]

4 hours ago, Nick L said:

If you're unhappy with the moans about this winter, I suggest you steer clear of a thread dedicated to moans about this winter.

 

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Iam considering 10 days in Edmonton CM, probably late November.

What sort of conditions would one expect late Nov if you don't mind me asking.

 

If you do head over, definitely go check out Lake Louise

 

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hi North West, CM could be at work being as its 10.30am there got some graphs for you though mate. 

Thanks Matt. January looks fantastic for snowfall, although if I went in November it would be after mid month, just in case, and knowing my luck it would be a late start to Winter that year and the snow would start just as I'm leaving. Happened to me in Andorra years ago, was so mild when I was there, skiing was bad, slushy snow even high up. The day after I left there was heavy snow all that weekend, some girls that stayed out there were snowed in.

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

 

If you do head over, definitely go check out Lake Louise

 

Wow that looks beautiful, thankyou for the pic