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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Experience of entrenched patterns like this, allied to little or no forcing to lift us out of it. Steve Murr may be a die hard coldie but he's also not stupid and can see the writing on the wall.

writing on the wall... now where have I seen that before 

 

 

On 11/09/2019 at 16:42, CreweCold said:

The September GLOSEA update is about as grim as you can get for winter. Think 88/89.

December 1988 

UK mean temp 6.6 C  - 2019 5.1 C 

England mean temp Dec 1988 6.9 C - 2019 5.6 C 

Scotland mean temp Dec 1988 5.8 C (warmest December on record for Scotland) 2019 4.1 C 

Wales mean temp Dec 1988 7.3 C - 2019  5.6 C 

Northern Ireland mean temp Dec 1988 7.2 C (warmest December on record for Northern Ireland) 2019 5.4 C 

lets see where January and February go.

Also do you mean that anyone like myself who would rather wait and see what the remaining days of winter have to offer in terms of anything cold are "stupid"? 

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Not sure what people are marking 'normal' as - average mean temperatures? which skew what can happen at anytime anyway.

Bouts of significant warmth are common in many a winter when you have SW airstreams. Its normal to have well above average mean temps when a SW airstream is in full flow in mid-winter, and the most common airstream in Dec and Jan at least is the west/sw airflow.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

We've had runs of back to back mild winters in the last 45 years or so, far more common than back to back cold or even just average winters:

74/75 and 75/76

87/88-89/90 (3)

91/92/92/93

97/98-99/00 - 3

06/07-07/08

15/16-16/17 - 2

 

Indeed, since the mid 1970's, that's about right. I guess it's something that we have become used to now so it's the new norm.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Just now, nn2013 said:

The new normal unfortunately....I'm not happy either. 

That's my point - it's not. It's very depressing at the moment, but we are unfortunately stuck in a milder than normal pattern at an unfavourable time of year. There have been a lot of silly comments (not yours) on the last few pages but I think we can safely disregard 10C 850hPas and 16/17C in NE Scotland etc as normal.

On a merrier note, it looks relatively shortlived, with a return to more normal temperatures later in the week (earlier than that in the north). Sadly though, no immediate end in sight to the overall Atlantic dross.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

On Tuesday we'll be in December 2015 territory, but yes, this is of course 'normal'....

 

Currently I’m running exactly 1C above average for January the normal tmax for Greenwich 8.1 this is likely to rise further to maybe even 2-3C above, one would then hopefully see a slow crawl down but who knows. It does appear polar vortex may have reached its greatest intensity or will do so shortly. With support of climatology and Greenland warming expected, I’d expect a less zonal turbocharged +NAO signature going later into January into February. Also with assistance from EQBO, low solar and lack of MJO ‘killer’. The rear of winter seems much more likely to deliver something wintry, than early winter it is not appropriate time to write the winter off. That is irresponsible and childish in my eyes.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
27 minutes ago, Don said:

It’s happened a fair few times.  1988/89, 1989/90, 2006/07 and 2007/08 to name a few.

Yes unfortunately it's happening more and more Don. I mean this is the 7th mild January in a row, unless things start to change sharpish. It's still freakish though.

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes unfortunately it's happening more and more Don. I mean this is the 7th mild January in a row, unless things start to change sharpish. It's still freakish though.

I'm sorry, but it seems just very weird to have a run of mild January's like that. Surely one will give in! 

Edited by nn2013
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Currently I’m running exactly 1C above average for January the normal tmax for Greenwich 8.1 this is likely to rise further to maybe even 2-3C above, one would then hopefully see a slow crawl down but who knows. It does appear polar vortex may have reached its greatest intensity or will do so shortly. With support of climatology and Greenland warming expected, I’d expect a less zonal turbocharged +NAO signature going later into January into February. Also with assistance from EQBO, low solar and lack of MJO ‘killer’. The rear of winter seems much more likely to deliver something wintry, than early winter it is not appropriate time to write the winter off. That is irresponsible and childish in my eyes.

I would too. For want of a better way of putting it, the PV is doing pretty well to maintain the strength it is even now. Fingers crossed for later in the month as you say. There is of course a reason why the 21st Jan - 10th Feb is the coldest part of the winter.

To your second point, agreed. I'll never join that crew at this stage in the 'winter'. I always have hope. Heck even January 2008 brought a short lived snowfall here within an active Atlantic period on 11th January. Jan 2007 brought the northerly on the 23rd-25th. Jan 2015 brought snow showers off a straight westerly before the colder half of the month even began... 

The supercharged PV could actually work in our favour if only the Euro high wasn't taking up its premature summer residence. Imagine what a decent Pm outbreak would be like now.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
5 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I'm sorry, but it seems just very weird to have a run of mild January's like that. Surely one will give in! 

It is surely inevitable this chain will break in 2020s a new decade there will be a lot of weather to get our teeth through we have to also remind ourselves 2000-2009 was milder decade, so it is not really the case of global warming is wrecking our winters. Warming seems more muted for our island compared to our continental friends I’m not sure what explains this surely more Atlantic moderation influence, would bring milder weather in winter? It is hard to decipher what is going on but a cold winter 100% is not a thing of past, we said the same in 2007 and then look what happened 2010 was also a particularly cold year it may have been 10 years but this is nothing really. 

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
34 minutes ago, Don said:

10 years ago was not normal (no one said it was).  On the other hand, what we are experiencing now is not normal either.

Spare a thought for the people of Lapland. They have the fastest rising temperatures on the planet.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Currently I’m running exactly 1C above average for January the normal tmax for Greenwich 8.1 this is likely to rise further to maybe even 2-3C above, one would then hopefully see a slow crawl down but who knows. It does appear polar vortex may have reached its greatest intensity or will do so shortly. With support of climatology and Greenland warming expected, I’d expect a less zonal turbocharged +NAO signature going later into January into February. Also with assistance from EQBO, low solar and lack of MJO ‘killer’. The rear of winter seems much more likely to deliver something wintry, than early winter it is not appropriate time to write the winter off. That is irresponsible and childish in my eyes.

Just what I’m thinking I mean 5th feb which is a whole month away and that is a long way off in weather terms and can massively change in that time, and if we can get into a better pattern can you imagine how cold it could be at that time of year and all this mild crap will be forgotten about and so would all these writing off winter until next winter lol, they will all pop back up as if they never said anything of the sort in the first place, then again they might get it right and well.... best left there.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Can we calm down please every one on here is entitled to their opinion surely, I mean it's only the weather.:olddoh:

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
6 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Spare a thought for the people of Lapland. They have the fastest rising temperatures on the planet.

They had a scorching Summer in 2019.

I will be taking my toddler son there next Winter so as long as the temperatures stay like this in Northern Finland every Winter it should be a very festive trip! 
It is the home of Santa Claus after all! 

Current temperatures:

6A19389F-E76A-43A4-ACCA-1A2E3F0E1267.thumb.png.3ecd9e69fb5a1df1b654f60546053046.png
 

And I agree with the last post you made - UK and Ireland Winter consists of plenty prolonged mild spells with the odd cold spell. (It has been that way since I can remember)

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

I get the disappointment from snow lovers wrt the current pattern and i have read many remarks about the poor outlook.

Just to underline what we are looking at is that apart from the mild blip peaking around Tuesday the mean of the GEFs last 4 runs show 2m temperatures pretty much average for the next 2 weeks.

This for my location Warks.

graphe6_1001_270_92___.thumb.png.6334ffecc9d0bdf3602f6e0a66fb1f90.png

January average day max's around 7c for Birmingham and min 2C so the ems.forecasts is within our normal range for this month temperature wise.

WWW.CURRENTRESULTS.COM

Average January temperatures for places throughout the United Kingdom, including lists of monthly high and low temperatures in degrees Celsius and Fahrenheit.

High January max's too above 15c have been recorded numerous times going back to 1800's with 17c quite a few times in the past so this is not new.

WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation or 'TORRO' is a privately supported research body, serving the national and international public interest.

Granted all this will not pacify any frustrations waiting for a cold spell but we are pretty much seeing an average outlook for the UK. based on the latest data.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Don this is closer to normal than that you must accept that surely? It has not been excessively winter mild here at least so far. My highest tmax is 12.8C and well this is low on recent winters.

The thing is, even most typical mild winters at least have a few cold snaps, which this winter so far has not really had.  It looks to remain that way for the foreseeable, so therefore I do not see this winter shaping up as normal.  However, that said, we will have to wait until the end of February before we can reach a final conclusion.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

This time 10 years ago we were frozen solid and I was about to experience a -15c minimum. There was maybe 5cm of snow lying and everything was so wonderfully wintry. 

Fast forward 10 years and we get...this.

I miss those winters of 2008/9 to 2012/13, even the mild 2011/12 still delivered a cold snowy spell in Feb that year, and London had snow in every year between 2009 until 2013. That era was almost if not just as good as those 1980s cold spells.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Spare a thought for the people of Lapland. They have the fastest rising temperatures on the planet.

It's one of the fastest warming areas, but to find the fastest warming region you have to come a bit further north.  Ostrov Vize (Vize Island) in the Russian Arctic had a mean annual temperature of about -14.5C between 1973 and 2004, but since 2005 the annual mean has jumped to about -10C, the coldest year in the 2005-2019 period (2013) came in at -11.1C, and the warmest year, 2012, averaged 6.0C, some 8.5C above the earlier long-term normal.  2016 was almost as warm.  https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/ws-200690.html  

In Lapland the annual mean appears to have risen by nearer 2C, for example Rovaniemi has warmed from having an annual mean close to 0C to 2C: https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/ws-28450.html   It isn't quite getting to the stage where Lapland struggles to see much snow in the winter quarter, as is evident from some of the temperature charts that people have been posting, but in the more marginal areas it is becoming an issue, e.g. Muscovites typically take having a white Christmas for granted but this year they resorted to spraying Red Square with fake snow because there was nothing lying near Moscow city centre.land is currently having a minor cold snap 

As it happens Lapland is currently having a cold snap due to an incursion of Arctic air, but in the next few days a very warm south-westerly conveyor belt will send temperatures in the region close to or just above freezing.

 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
11 hours ago, NeilN said:

What is normal with the weather nowadays? 

Take out the winter weather, looks at the high summer temps, the huge rainfalls in autumn, Australia's sad situation....

I could go on, but there's something happening.

Yeah, but our UK summers haven’t improved. Apart from 2018 and parts of 19, summers in recent years have still been disappointing, dull and cloudy affairs.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
10 hours ago, snowsummer said:

I remember  back in the 80's during one snowy spell my young son asking if we would ever be able to christmas on the beach like they did in Australia. Sadly hes no longer here to carry on that discussion, but i wonder somedays if my grandson will really get to do that. Its a strange world now, and nothing would shock me.

Christmas Day 1987 felt like that at the time. If you lived in London back then, it was very sunny and mild that day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

There has been chatter that the W QBO was very strong upto November ..

I wonder if this is what prompted Glosea 5 to go for the horrendous winter now panning out.

Hopefully the QBO is very different in the run up to next Dec/jan/feb.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Some ridiculous posts here suggesting winter is over, and told you so posts, this is UK remember a mild climate in winter, where a week of prolonged cold and snow is never that common anyway. 

I still think we will see a dramatic change later in the winter then  all the posters claiming the whole winter will be mild will dissappear as they usually do when cold weather arrives. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Some ridiculous posts here suggesting winter is over, and told you so posts, this is UK remember a mild climate in winter, where a week of prolonged cold and snow is never that common anyway. 

I still think we will see a dramatic change later in the winter then  all the posters claiming the whole winter will be mild will dissappear as they usually do when cold weather arrives. 

Im still hoping Feb will see a change.

Im mindful of both Glosea EC seasonal still gunning for the +NAO until spring though.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Really tempted to cut the lawn today. Super mild here for early January; i smell an early arrival of Spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire

Still 6 weeks left for a holy grail event. Plenty of time. I am not optimistic however.

My definition of holy grail:

1. 4/5 days of subzero maxima

2. at least one snow fall of over 4 inches during the period

A holy grail event in my location (Reading). Can only be achieved post Feb 14th if total cloud cover for entire period and dew points remain below freezing.

I still have hope, albeit limited

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, ptow said:

Still 6 weeks left for a holy grail event. Plenty of time. I am not optimistic however.

My definition of holy grail:

1. 4/5 days of subzero maxima

2. at least one snow fall of over 4 inches during the period

A holy grail event in my location (Reading). Can only be achieved post Feb 14th if total cloud cover for entire period and dew points remain below freezing.

I still have hope, albeit limited

I would be delighted if we see 2 consecutive ice days before the end of winter. The problem by mid Feb is the strength of the sun.

Which is why, personally speaking - Dec and Jan are the go to months, with the sun beginning to set by 3pm there is virtually no solar effect on any snowcover.

Oh well, clearly Dec and jan there isn't going to be any snowcover whatsoever.

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