Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Purga]

7 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The UK is on course for its warmest January since records began.

Yes and TWO are pretty bullish about the winter as a whole being record-breakingly mild.

[Summer Sun]

The met office have updated the warning for strong winds in parts of the north on Tuesday

Reason for update

• Small changes to both shrink the warning area and reduce peak wind strengths.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/accessible-uk-warnings

 

[Djdazzle]

Relentless dross it seems. Still, on the plus side, it saves on the heating bills.

It’s easier to stomach this winter compared to last since we don’t have the false promise of encouraging background signals to give us false hope.

We may just have to consign this one to the bin. However, you never know . . .

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Relentless dross it seems. Still, on the plus side, it saves on the heating bills.

It’s easier to stomach this winter compared to last since we don’t have the false promise of encouraging background signals to give us false hope.

We may just have to consign this one to the bin. However, you never know . . .

On the other hand, one might consider the last twelve-months' weather incredibly fascinating:

Why did all (Spanish Met notwithstanding) last winters' prognostications go so horribly wrong? How come the SSW yielded precisely nothing? Why was it that, despite a persistently negative NAO, the expected (by some) 2012 summer redux never happened? And, perhaps most importantly: How come nobody seemed to know anything about the Indian Ocean Dipole?

The world is a'changing...Always expect the unexpected?

 

[daz_4]

It doesn't matter what the starting point is nowadays. This is seventh year in a row with the same end result. HP just sitting over Europe. There is always something that goes off the rails and destroys any chance for at least average winter.

[sundog]

No cold...no snow...no hope..................

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

It doesn't matter what the starting point is nowadays. This is seventh year in a row with the same end result. HP just sitting over Europe. There is always something that goes off the rails and destroys any chance for at least average winter.

Its just horrific for those wanting some seasonal weather it really is.

 

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its just horrific for those wanting some seasonal weather it really is.

 

I think this is situation that will become normal to us in the UK going forward NW. Gw etc seems to be the big player and not only in the uk

Edited January 5, 2020 by swfc

[Don]

18 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think this is situation that will become normal to us in the UK going forward NW. Gw etc seems to be the big player and not only in the uk

Yes it most likely will.  All pretty depressing stuff......Bad times ahead for the world.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Don

[Don]

8 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  lol I meant winter 2019 2020

I know but couldn’t resist!

[Don]

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Totally forgotten is the flooding in east Africa, lives have been lost here as well because of the IOD 

Don’t think it’s a case of totally forgotten.  It’s just that people don’t necessarily associate it with the IOD?

[DAVID SNOW]

Horrific

no hope

depressing.....

Some REALLY  need to get a grip here.

Your house is not flooded or being burned to the ground is it?

[snowray]

There's no doubt that modern winters have become very strange in what some call the MW for weather. Milder with periods of above average rainfall, and a lack of northern blocking and a relentless demon PV. 

Sometimes when the models become unbearable in mid winter, like they are now I look back at cold spells before this so called MW, that would be before the 1960's, and what I find is that run's of mild or very mild winters as we have seen since around the mid 1970's were very rare indeed, most winters back then had at least one very cold spell of weather, sometimes with snow, other times with very cold blocking and snow over the continent but we were very rarely left out of the picture entirely. 

Just looking at the twenty year period between 1940-1959 there is only one winter that I would compare with recent winters, ie mild, that was the winter of 1942/43, every other winter had notable cold spells, not just northerly topplers that last a day or two. In this period we have of note 1947 of course, and the infamous 62/63 winter was a bit later, but what is clear is that a Euro high type of feature was NOT our default winter, it turned up for a while in some months, there were Bartlett highs for periods but then they went their merry way and there was always cold weather lasting at least for a week or two at some point in the winter.

Here are just a few charts as examples.

February seems to almost always produce some sort of easterly, although if January had been cold things would generally be less cold in Spring.

1946 seems to have been cold with easterlies both in January and December. I wont post 1947 because we all know what happened there.

Even in the 1948/1949 winter that seemed milder on the whole there was a period of severe cold and an easterly in late February.

This is just an example of the period, yes there were mild months but cold was never far away, it was often severe cold that was widespread and sometimes lasted for significant periods of time. I guess the closest that we have got to this is recent years is the winter of 2009/2010, and 2012/2013, (and Late Feb/March 2018 I guess) so just two or three years out of ten.

The spooky thing is that it is western Europe that has warmed up the most in more recent winters, due to a strong pv, and the never ending Euro/Azores HP. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by snowray

[snowray]

Just one more thing, if you look at the increase in global sea temps in the last hundred plus years, you may see a correlation there.

 

[Erdem]

Thanks snowray , I only looked at the temp numbers and it's clear , that for W Europe and even more so for UK and Ireland , there has been dramatic change since late eighties

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Default weather pattern for UK weather? Yep, sure is. As a betting man it IS the safest bet, esp for down here. Reality is that 'we' are a maritime climate with generally mild, wettish Winters. The internet has spawned 'experts' in lots of fields, and thrown up numerous 'twits' who like to publicise their thoughts.

UK, esp the South, has infrequent cold, snowy Winters...fact. A lot on here need a reality check, and some need help when they '"worry" about computer generated charts. Winter will be virtually snowless, and probably next few years as we enter a new phase.

I agree with you BB, there are far to many so called professionals who are turning up in this Internet age, who constantly big up an impending cold snap! But I've noticed how they dissappear quicker than the forecasted cold snap when it all goes wrong! On a more positive note.. Jon hammond has mentioned the warmer waters in the Indian ocean perhaps putting a thorn in this winters side. But he feels now that this is beginning to wane! And seems more hopeful of a colder scenario towards the final 3rd of this month. Obviously not set in stone, but perhaps at least some better signals. Don't give up hope just yet coldies.. 

Ps... Excellent early post by snowray on previous winters... Very insightful and interesting.. Cheers

Edited January 5, 2020 by Mattwolves

[snowray]

14 minutes ago, Erdem said:

Thanks snowray , I only looked at the temp numbers and it's clear , that for W Europe and even more so for UK and Ireland , there has been dramatic change since late eighties

 

[summer blizzard]

Just looking at my analogues and the two best matches are the winters of 1975 and 2012. Both of those did cool into February albeit March was very different for both.

Edited January 5, 2020 by summer blizzard

[Gord]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Horrific

no hope

depressing.....

Some REALLY  need to get a grip here.

Your house is not flooded or being burned to the ground is it?

In the context of life and humanity...you're absolutely right.

In the context of a forum for weather enthusiasts sharing their interests and passion for their chosen subject....you're being quite harsh.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Erdem said:

Thanks snowray , I only looked at the temp numbers and it's clear , that for W Europe and even more so for UK and Ireland , there has been dramatic change since late eighties

Yes, it all started in December 1987.

One good thing though is, the ladies dress sexier in winter since then, when going to bars and clubs lol.

Everyone seemed to be covered in jumpers before 1987, or maybe it just appeared like that lol.

[booferking]

All this warmth and record heat Greenland just records it's all time record low

[Interitus]

41 minutes ago, booferking said:

All this warmth and record heat Greenland just records it's all time record low

Read the rest of that twitter thread.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Read the rest of that twitter thread.

Any comment? Would be useful to learn what this might mean for UK. Thanks. 

[Mapantz]

28 minutes ago, Griff said:

Any comment? Would be useful to learn what this might mean for UK. Thanks. 

Unfortunately, it means nothing.

Interitus is pointing out that the recording at that station is likely to be a bad one, if one had read the replies of the original tweet.

[mountain shadow]

42 minutes ago, Griff said:

Any comment? Would be useful to learn what this might mean for UK. Thanks. 

Deep cold over Greenland simply fuels the jetstream and we get endless mild South Westerlies.