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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
49 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Agree 100%

A little like spring 2008 perhaps?  I think you’re probably correct.  I will probably get shot down in flames as being selfish but I think a poor summer this year, with northern blocking ‘could’ be a good sign for the following winter (if you want it cold)?  Note ‘could’.  Think back to the summers between 2007 and 2012.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
37 minutes ago, knocker said:

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

ENR95sdWwAA05LY.thumb.jpg.cac7fce448c805cb9470a38a45b0b1dd.jpg

I do need to lose some weight following Christmas to be fair!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Put it this way, most people should count themselves very very lucky if they even see one flake of snow before Feb is out.

Oh I will!  Probably more likely to see 21C before February is out!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, Don said:

A little like spring 2008 perhaps?  I think you’re probably correct.  I will probably get shot down in flames as being selfish but I think a poor summer this year, with northern blocking ‘could’ be a good sign for the following winter (if you want it cold)?  Note ‘could’.  Think back to the summers between 2007 and 2012.

If we're to see any 'summer' this year I suspect it will be back loaded towards latter August and Sepetmber, which seems to be a common occurrence in low solar activity summers. 

Next winter is the one I have my eye on and have done for a while now. We should see a more cohesive ENSO signature, we'll have the E QBO being flushed out and hopefully we can get the NE Pacific to cool somewhat. I'm VERY hopeful for next winter, even at this juncture.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
55 minutes ago, knocker said:

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

ENR95sdWwAA05LY.thumb.jpg.cac7fce448c805cb9470a38a45b0b1dd.jpg

That's me waiting while the missus is in shops.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Next winter is the one I have my eye on and have done for a while now. We should see a more cohesive ENSO signature, we'll have the E QBO being flushed out and hopefully we can get the NE Pacific to cool somewhat. I'm VERY hopeful for next winter, even at this juncture.

I do hope so!  That NE Pacific is a pain ATM but if that does cool, I will be more optimistic.  As you've pointed out, other factors are more likely to be in our favour next year.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

But they often are with the PV breaking down. There’s nothing unusual with that - more likely to snow at Easter than Xmas etc. Trouble is they are about as good as an ashtray on a motorbike that late in the season. We want it now while it’s still dark and not going to melt away in an hour. Sadly this winter is just shaping up like most of the last 20-30 years.

Of course, but beggars can't be choosers and if this winter continues to be a stinker until the end of February, I will happily take some spring snow, even if it is short lived!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

This winter is done as far as anything tangible from the strat is concerned. However, if we happen to catch the break up of the sPV towards March/April we could be looking at a very potent late season cold spell IMO. 

Potential is there for a miserable spring/summer IMO as I think a predominant -NAO regime will be the feature.

I’m sorry I’m obviously not in the know like some on here but how on earth can you say this winter is as good as over? It’s the start of January for crying out loud, things change at the flick of a switch and yes background signals can be good or bad but even when good they don’t work out in our favour so I’m gobsmacked that you can say that we would be very lucky to see a snow flake lol. And then to start saying summer will be crap.......think I’ll leave it there unless you wana make a prediction for next winter too.

if I’m completely honest I think things will look an awful lot better than they do right now in a week or too, can’t look much worse 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

That EC monthly chart doesn't hint at high pressure to the NE at all, I read that as more of a Sceuro block.

Maybe not in an ideal position for an easterly but is an anomaly chart at that range likely to be spot on, I wouldn't think so (whether it adjusts for good or bad only time will tell). I certainly wouldn't write things off as we have seen in the past how quickly things can change.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Easy- what is there to stop the W-E flow in the upper strat which is connected to the trop? Nothing is the answer. The seasonal models had this winter nailed months ago and so far it's running exactly to script.

Yeah I get what your saying but to say that winter is as good as over at the start of jan is a bit ott don’t u think? Things chop and change so quick it’s unreal, yeah I no it’s more normal for cold charts and that to disappear than it is mild but I just can’t get the winter over stuff just after new year. I’m sure we will see in the coming weeks

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
12 hours ago, Don said:

Not sure I’ve ever seen it this bad, apart from perhaps December 2015.

Corrr yeah I'm not a cold lover but Dec 2015 was unreal - I remember being at work on Xmas eve and it was pushing 18 degrees. It felt so "wrong" and I didn't enjoy it much.

I don't know how you cold lovers cope to be honest. This winter is the equivalent of me looking for warmth/heat in summer and after June being poor and July having no heat or improvement on the horizon etc. I would be writing summer off so I can fully understand why some of you are so downbeat.

I know a lot of us give eachother a hard time on here for our weather preferences for some reason, but I do really feel for you guys looking for sustained cold and I am a bit gutted for you that it doesn't look like materialising *yet*.

Of course, you can pretty much put your mortgage on the right conditions appearing into spring when it's too little too late.

If we do have a poor Summer at least we can all be miserable together.

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Posted
  • Location: Gordon, Scottish Borders
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Gordon, Scottish Borders

I hope I'm not posting in the wrong thread, but I read somewhere (can't remember where) that due to melting sea ice, the gulf stream would slow down, resulting in our UK winters getting colder.  Does anyone know the latest on this theory please? 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
12 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I know a lot of us give eachother a hard time on here for our weather preferences for some reason, but I do really feel for you guys looking for sustained cold and I am a bit gutted for you that it doesn't look like materialising *yet*.

Of course, you can pretty much put your mortgage on the right conditions appearing into spring when it's too little too late.

If we do have a poor Summer at least we can all be miserable together.

I'm not sure that is correct. Speaking only for myself, which is all I'm entitled to do, I have absolutely no problem with anyone's weather preferences which is precisely how it should be. But i frequently have a problem with how these preferences manifest themselves with arrogance and intolerance of the views of others being a couple of the lest desirable traits

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
9 minutes ago, Mother Goose said:

I hope I'm not posting in the wrong thread, but I read somewhere (can't remember where) that due to melting sea ice, the gulf stream would slow down, resulting in our UK winters getting colder.  Does anyone know the latest on this theory please? 

It's basically still a theory...until it happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure that is correct. Speaking only for myself, which is all I'm entitled to do, I have absolutely no problem with anyone's weather preferences which is precisely how it should be. But i frequently have a problem with how these preferences manifest themselves with arrogance and intolerance of the views of others being a couple of the lest desirable traits

Yes, if i'm objective for a minute, I too have no problem with other people's weather preferences - however I can be spiteful and I get frustrated in summer because I enjoy warmth and some people here don't and seem to have no issue with revelling in it, which is when my little arguments/tiffs occur on here.

I don't think I've ever posted on here during a mild spell in Winter like "Wooo mild! Long may it continue!" because even if I personally don't enjoy the cold, I don't want to purposely annoy the many people here who do enjoy cold weather. That's just common courtesy IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

I wouldn't say the chances of something more seasonal emerging are over, but the envelope of time for significant and sustained blocking is already closing fast.

The first half of Jan will almost certainly be chewed through in this flatter pattern, and to be honest there's nothing much suggesting we'll break out of it quickly after. This leaves us just a few short weeks to hit the bullseye in late Jan to mid Feb. 

Much later than that, and we're already starting to feel the effects of the longer days and higher sun. At that point I'm thinking of Spring, as down here in the South winter conditions generally start to get moderated by the turning seasons regardless of how good the synoptics are.

I'm not fussed with snow-to-slush and marginal events, just makes the place look untidy! 

So winter far from over from a general cold perspective, but barring an amazing pivot in the output, we're getting close in terms of the kind of winter many on here would like IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.png

I'm not losing all hope for the second half of Jan in terms of cold weather for the UK . The Ensemble mean of the GFs 0z showing hints of height rises over Scandinavia at t360

The GEM 0z mean showing this too ( and the ECM both last night and this morning hinting at the same thing ) 

spacer.png

The UKMO 0z was more amplified too than in previous runs .....so there is hope. Winter is not over on 3rd Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

On another note it was 19c in Norway yesterday
 

p07zd3ct.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

People in Sunndalsora have been experiencing temperatures more than 25C hotter than usual.

 
25c above normal! Ok - it was another Foehn event much like the highlands, but it's still ridiculous.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Still getting used to living back in Central Europe and trying to decipher 500mb height anomalies how they end up reflecting at the surface. You would thing that this anomaly from yesterday is a disaster for central EU, yet at surface level in my location I managed -4C as Tmax today, over last week our Tmax hovers barely above zero and Tmin around -7C, I would say mean over last 7 days is around - 5C which is pretty cold. Yet looking at height anomalies you would think its horrid for winter weather. The continental climate despite luck luster blocking does manage to give you spells of really wintry weather at surface. The trick is living in a valley that gets sheltered from possible wind from west and being at altitude no higher then 800m.asl ideally between 300 and 600m. My location is just perfect for preserving very precious cold that is available  In Ireland even the Beast from the East didn't manage -5C mean for 7+ days

gfs-2020010200-0-6.png

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81355660_2933744703344867_6456621308124856320_n.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Harrow, London
  • Location: Harrow, London

Looking at the temps for the next few days and it's mild. I really don't think I'm going to see a high below 7C for the first half of winter. That's abysmal. I don't know a single other first half of winter that meets that stat.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield

I remember some vastly milder Januaries than this one. I lived in Lincoln during January 2007, and we had highs of 12-14°C for almost the entire first 3 weeks! This month is nothing like that kind of level. Still disappointing for coldies but not exceptionally mild.

Edited by Thundershine
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Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria

I have to agree with those likening this winter to those of 06/07 and 07/08 in terms of its relentless hopelessness. If anything those winters were worse because we hadn't had the 09-13 'mini ice age' and winter as a concept seemed like it had gone forever. At least we know now we can still get cold weather though I think this winter is a lost cause in terms of anything memorable. By that I mean a week or two of genuinely cold weather with ice days and lying snow. To be honest I'd settle just for a return of the odd snippet of polar maritime and some snow on the fells, maybe even some transient low level overnight slush to wipe off the windscreen. Any winter day when there isn't even any snow on the fells, and there isn't even any snow in the Scottish Highlands over 4000ft at the moment, feels fundamentally wrong to me!

Edited by trickydicky
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Couldn't care less if we get a mild winter this year so long as spring ans summer are warm and dry.

I couldn't care less if summer was cool and wet as long as we get a cold winter with snow. Although a cold winter this yr overall looks dead.  But next winter....  

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
7 hours ago, Azazel said:

Yes, if i'm objective for a minute, I too have no problem with other people's weather preferences - however I can be spiteful and I get frustrated in summer because I enjoy warmth and some people here don't and seem to have no issue with revelling in it, which is when my little arguments/tiffs occur on here.

I don't think I've ever posted on here during a mild spell in Winter like "Wooo mild! Long may it continue!" because even if I personally don't enjoy the cold, I don't want to purposely annoy the many people here who do enjoy cold weather. That's just common courtesy IMO.

Well said. Too much winding other people up on here, at times. It gets very irritating in summer, I don’t get this need some people have to be spiteful.

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