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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeeez i just looked at GFS 12z...

Its beyond horrendous for coldies it really is.

It’s not good the fact the only decent looking chart is at 384hrs says it all

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
38 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

That may actually sound incredible even to me but at a second glance you have to look on a map and see exactly where that is.It is very close to the coast in the very far north west just a stones throw from Cape Wrath which holds 3 of the daily December maximums for the UK.You have to compare it with places like the outer Hebrides and the West of Ireland which have a climate way different to inland where temps are much more consistant for much of the year.Some places in West Ireland havnt had snow or frost for 50 years am guessing it wont be too different in North west Scotland on the coast.Shetlands temp today is 8 deg and when London is basking in temps in the high 20s Shetland is often in the low teens and sometimes single figures,not a great difference all year around.

Not in the current 'climate', it's not: February's all-time record smashed; at least two separate T850s records set; and, by some considerable margin, the highest temp ever recorded, anywhere in the UK...? One would, all things being equal, expect such events to become more all-year-round, with time...?

And so it's turning out!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
40 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No problems...by the way I still think BBC are a tad OTT as regards to mentioning heat in Australia (being part of our commonwealth), yes no doubt big bush fire problems but you can get that in less hot tinder dry conditions, I checked out the conditions in various Australian cities the other day when apparently 40c was being experienced in every state and not one city was anywhere near it and for that day and the week ahead. 

Can't help thinking it's BBC at every opportunity throwing climate change into everyone's consciousness...

The cities are typically on the coast and so the temperatures are more extreme inland. Very easy to have temperatures well above 40C away from the major cities in every state, but also have no cities reach 40C. It doesn't require a slight of hand from the BBC!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
51 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No problems...by the way I still think BBC are a tad OTT as regards to mentioning heat in Australia (being part of our commonwealth), yes no doubt big bush fire problems but you can get that in less hot tinder dry conditions, I checked out the conditions in various Australian cities the other day when apparently 40c was being experienced in every state and not one city was anywhere near it and for that day and the week ahead. 

Can't help thinking it's BBC at every opportunity throwing climate change into everyone's consciousness...

Seriously? Tad OTT?.......Sorry but i disagree. The issues in Australia are just one issue,areas in India have had the coldest temps in a 100 years,Moscow is experiencing its mildest winter in decades. Some of the sub Asian continent is having the lowest rain fall totals ever recorded. Uk Winter temps are now so high the likelihood of snowfall is remote winter after winter even in my location in the Pennies. Climate change is very real,the BBC is certainly not being OTT with its response thankfully. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
17 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The cities are typically on the coast and so the temperatures are more extreme inland. Very easy to have temperatures well above 40C away from the major cities in every state, but also have no cities reach 40C. It doesn't require a slight of hand from the BBC!

Yes that is the case and we know the interior of Australia away from the coasts is largely population free and the climate is not sustainable for hardly anything, still can't help thinking BBC are grabbing hold of every bit of info they can which will push global warming to the forefront of the news...always seems to be Australia though at this time of year, what about New Zealand, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa or any other southern hemisphere country?

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

No measurable snow here in December since 2010 now. As this December has been completely snowless, that means next year we'll reach a decade without any.

January isn't doing much better mind you, with just one 0.5cm cover that lasted less than 12 hours in the last 7 years. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
9 minutes ago, markyo said:

Seriously? Tad OTT?.......Sorry but i disagree. The issues in Australia are just one issue,areas in India have had the coldest temps in a 100 years,Moscow is experiencing its mildest winter in decades. Some of the sub Asian continent is having the lowest rain fall totals ever recorded. Uk Winter temps are now so high the likelihood of snowfall is remote winter after winter even in my location in the Pennies. Climate change is very real,the BBC is certainly not being OTT with its response thankfully. 

I'm referring to Australia not elsewhere in the globe...as mentioned in my above post we hear little from elsewhere particularly in the southern hemisphere about their summers, when was the last time you heard about record temps in South Africa or Argentina? (by the way I'm not a GW denier).

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I'm referring to Australia not elsewhere in the globe...as mentioned in my above post we hear little from elsewhere particularly in the southern hemisphere about their summers, when was the last time you heard about record temps in South Africa or Argentina? (by the way I'm not a GW denier).

This month?

WWW.TIMESLIVE.CO.ZA

Vioolsdrif, a village in the Northern Cape, has broken a new record for the highest temperature in the country — reaching over 50 degrees Celsius.

and earlier this year:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/07/southern-hemisphere-is-scorching-all-time-record-heat-set-chile-argentina-australia/

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Okay stand corrected on that...can't ever remember this in the news at the time (certainly not on BBC pages), just as significant as Australia.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
5 hours ago, Don said:

To be fair, heat lovers would be moaning on the final day of June had it had been a cool/wet month and the outlook for July was also very poor for warm weather.

Cool/wet weather in summer is a big spoiler for outdoor events and holiday plans. People rely on the weather holding up in summer. As much as cold weather lovers dislike mild winter weather, it really doesn’t have an impact on your daily life.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, reef said:

No measurable snow here in December since 2010 now. As this December has been completely snowless, that means next year we'll reach a decade without any.

January isn't doing much better mind you, with just one 0.5cm cover that lasted less than 12 hours in the last 7 years. 

That’s actually one area this decade has been fairly decent here - it’s been pretty snowy, certainly snowier than the 90s and 00s and probably snowier than the 70s too. However that snowfall was overwhelmingly concentrated in 2010-2013. It’s been pretty lacklustre for snow since late 2013 except for early 2018. 2013/2014 was the first winter without any settling snow I remember, and 2018/2019 came close were it not for a sprinkling of snow at some point in January, but it might as well have been snowless.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Here we are again with models looking as though this winter could be another disastrous winter for achieving a proper cold spell for the UK. With nothing of note showing yet, and there has not really been a cold snap let alone cold spell to speak of yet; if January does not deliver anything decent in terms of cold at some point, then I cannot see February being anything  other than average to mild.  Since 2012-13 I can only think of winter 2017-18 that really was anything close to an average winter that brought a decent cold spell to the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Here we are again with models looking as though this winter could be another disastrous winter for achieving a proper cold spell for the UK. With nothing of note showing yet, and there has not really been a cold snap let alone cold spell to speak of yet; if January does not deliver anything decent in terms of cold at some point, then I cannot see February being anything  other than average to mild.  Since 2012-13 I can only think of winter 2017-18 that really was anything close to an average winter that brought a decent cold spell to the UK.

Yes and that was only because of the double whammy of easterlies of course, around 28th Feb and 15th March. 

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes and that was only because of the double whammy of easterlies of course, around 28th Feb and 15th March. 

And wasn’t that after the so called experts on here had written it off too.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeeez i just looked at GFS 12z...

Its beyond horrendous for coldies it really is.

Book a holiday to Canada for your snow this winter, otherwise you might be waiting until December.....

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
23 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Since 2012-13 I can only think of winter 2017-18 that really was anything close to an average winter that brought a decent cold spell to the UK.

The BFTE in February 2018 gave us all hope for last year.  However, as last winter and this winter so far have shown, it looks like it was a false dawn for a return to colder winters.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No measurable lying snow here this year. No snow falling this December either. Looks like Jan will go the same way.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

I think that a closer to average and less mild winter overall in 2017-18 than in 2013-14 to 2016-17 and the late Feb 2018 easterly gave hope that declining solar activity towards the minimum and a neutral ENSO state helped winter 2017-18 be a significant improvement from a cold perspective than the previous four winters; but last winter which was again another mild one overall proved the question as to what does it take to get something decent for cold to the UK?  Albeit the QBO was more westerly last winter than it has been so far this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
43 minutes ago, Don said:

Book a holiday to Canada for your snow this winter, otherwise you might be waiting until December.....

bloody 'ell, December, that's optimistic in Thomas Mitchell Willis

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeeez i just looked at GFS 12z...

Its beyond horrendous for coldies it really is.

These runs this evening are the worse ever.  I can not see any great escape to the cold side. 

C

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

I gave up counting the number of times it snowed in that cold fortnight last February when it moved into double figures. Trouble was none of them amounted to anything. Deepest we had was probably not even 2cm and the rest were just dustings. I suppose some might count the run of showers over numerous days as almost a single episode. It's snowed this month, though. Family saw proper snow on hills around Bradford but we only got a bit of sleet amongst the cold rain. However, we later had an icy dust that settled out of the freezing fog when they were getting a sunny day.

 

Death of snow is exaggerated. In my opinion, you are probably looking in the wrong timeframe for snow and cold if you think it will come at the bottom of the solar cycle. It looks more like it occurs nearly at the next peak for us. (See 1947,1979 and 2010. I accept 1963 doesn't suit).The solar cooling phase of equatorial seas (where most energy is absorbed) continues until the cycle has climbed half-way up again   - two or three years after the low - and then the lower energy tropical sea water takes a year or two to transport that reduced energy to our temperate latitudes. I'd guess at a colder winter here 2 to 4 years after the solar low - so 2021 to 2023? (Think along the lines of peak Arctic sea ice not occuring with the sun's winter solstice low in December but much later. The cold continues to push ice extent up until the warming phase begins a quarter cycle after the low, which is March. My guess is it could be the same with the solar cycle as it does match a few well-known instances.)

Figure2.jpeg

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
37 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bloody 'ell, December, that's optimistic in Thomas Mitchell Willis

Probably snow around Easter time, often does.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Night all, and have a happy New Year...And hope that 2020 delivers more snow than 2019! :crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Night all, and have a happy New Year...And hope that 2020 delivers more snow than 2019! :crazy:

optimistic? snow on average getting less as the years go on

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