Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Don]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Solar cycle is not an issue already. Of all top 11 spotless years since 1850 this will be only the third to see the December CET exceed 5.3C. We have never seen a January warmer than 4.7C.

I think we will this time.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I think we will this time.

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is tanking clear signal that el nino is upon us neutral state being removed.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Solar cycle is not an issue already. Of all top 11 spotless years since 1850 this will be only the third to see the December CET exceed 5.3C. We have never seen a January warmer than 4.7C.

But 11 is hardly an impressive sample-size SB; and the state of the current solar cycle is hardly the most influential driver of our weather, in any case...?

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, but at least 30c does occur every summer. 

Most winters we are chasing shadows and up with sod all.

Yes I understand what people are saying. 30-32c is easily more achievable now, when comparing reaching 5c to below 0c in the winter months. 

I’ll play devil’s advocate here, and ask this. If in the unlikely event we did flip to a 1963 style winter, between 2020 until say 2024, wouldn’t people become just as fed up with  long periods of freezing cold, and poor summers?

I’m not supporting warming by any means, as I’m aware it’s dangerous for the environment, but also wouldn’t want a return to long periods of harsh cold and poor summers.

 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Not very exciting charts for the foreseeable future, very bland in fact and not wintry, at all. The only good thing is that rainfall should not be quite as frequent and heavy, so the distinct threat of flooding in many areas will now recede, thankfully. We still have over 2 months of winter proper to go, so there’s plenty of time yet for a big change in the weather, seen it happen many times. Hope everyone here is having a great Christmas, in the meantime I’m working over both Christmas and a New Year but making the best of it. Cheers  

I agree about that, and even March can still end up cold and dull, at least until the middle of that month. The only issue I have by then is, I want to see more springlike weather.

[Radiating Dendrite]

17 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes I understand what people are saying. 30-32c is easily more achievable now, when comparing reaching 5c to below 0c in the winter months. 

I’ll play devil’s advocate here, and ask this. If in the unlikely event we did flip to a 1963 style winter, between 2020 until say 2024, wouldn’t people become just as fed up with  long periods of freezing cold, and poor summers?

I’m not supporting warming by any means, as I’m aware it’s dangerous for the environment, but also wouldn’t want a return to long periods of harsh cold and poor summers.

 

I think even in the poorest summers you would still get a few days where it would be warm and sunny enough to whip out the bbq.

Not sure you can say the same for the sledge in a poor winter, especially in the south - more likely to need the waders!

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

We avoided 30C in 1993 and almost 2007.

Yes that’s right, and I’ll back that statement. But, since 2013 summer temps have reached 30c, with 32-34c becoming the more common summer peak. 

[Sunny76]

15 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I think even in the poorest summers you would still get a few days where it would be warm and sunny enough to whip out the bbq.

Not sure you can say the same for the sledge in a poor winter, especially in the south - more likely to need the waders!

I remember even the poorest summers of my childhood, 1980-87, we would still be able to sit in the park on a hot summers day. Even 1986(which I remember being particularly cold and dull for the large chunk of that summer) still produced a few weeks of warm to hot sunny weather.

Getting the sledge out has only been doable in 1981/82, 1987, and 1991, if we are talking about the last 40 years, or winters I can remember. 

1986 was a chilly winter, but it failed to produce a lot of snow, especially where I was. 

Edited December 26, 2019 by Sunny76

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I remember even the poorest summers of my childhood, 1980-87, we would still be able to sit in the park on a hot summers day. Even 1986(which I remember being particularly cold and dull for the large chunk of that summer) still produced a few weeks of warm to hot sunny weather.

Getting the sledge out has only been doable in 1981/82, 1987, and 1991, if we are talking about the last 40 years, or winters I can remember. 

1986 was a chilly winter, but it failed to produce a lot of snow, especially where I was. 

But July & August 1983 were hot; and summer '84 wasn't too bad either...?

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I remember even the poorest summers of my childhood, 1980-87, we would still be able to sit in the park on a hot summers day. Even 1986(which I remember being particularly cold and dull for the large chunk of that summer) still produced a few weeks of warm to hot sunny weather.

Getting the sledge out has only been doable in 1981/82, 1987, and 1991, if we are talking about the last 40 years, or winters I can remember. 

1986 was a chilly winter, but it failed to produce a lot of snow, especially where I was. 

What about 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13?  They produced substantial amounts of snow.  Winter 1984/85 was also cold and snowy.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I remember even the poorest summers of my childhood, 1980-87, we would still be able to sit in the park on a hot summers day. Even 1986(which I remember being particularly cold and dull for the large chunk of that summer) still produced a few weeks of warm to hot sunny weather.

Getting the sledge out has only been doable in 1981/82, 1987, and 1991, if we are talking about the last 40 years, or winters I can remember. 

1986 was a chilly winter, but it failed to produce a lot of snow, especially where I was. 

You can say that again, February was the coldest single month in our lifetimes.

[carinthian]

I just hope that picture from GFS as we approach deep Mid-Winter never takes shape. Its horrid, mud and snow free for you lot and drought and snow free for the Eastern Alps. At this stage our winter could become one of discontent ( for cold lovers anyway ) weeds slugs and mould for mild raspberry wave mild lovers !

C

C

[Don]

37 minutes ago, carinthian said:

I just hope that picture from GFS as we approach deep Mid-Winter never takes shape. Its horrid, mud and snow free for you lot and drought and snow free for the Eastern Alps.

Would you bet against it?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I was at peace with the fact that this winter would be a stinker weeks ago. 

Will make it all the more sweet if I actually see a flake fall.

[carinthian]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

Would you bet against it?

No Don, most long range forecast backing a mild Europe winter with North America to turn cold. Typical. I look at those hourly synoptic charts from back home and the amount of rain you guys have had so far this past couple of months  is alarming. Must be a mud fest with little frost or sunshine. 

C

[reef]

3 hours ago, markyo said:

Your not getting it at all. I lived through the 60's 70's,80's. You quote certain winters and certain areas, that is not the full picture. Yes the climate has been warming,it's the rate it's now warming that is the issue. Its not linear,a external factor,ie humans are causing this. Just look at the planet as a whole and not just certain winters or the southeast perspective. We have changed the climate,near enough every climate scientist now agrees. Now is not the time to deny it i'm afraid,sorry. 

Its certainly been a marked change.

1951-1987 had five winters with a CET of 5C or higher. That's the same number as we've had since 2012. That same 1951-1987 period had 19 winters below 4C. 1988-2019 has seen only 6 winters below 4C.

Days of snow lying has fallen as the temperature has increased unsurprisingly. In my location, the 1961-1990 average for days of snow lying in winter was around 11 days. The 1987-2019 period has seen that pretty much half to 5.6 days. Its extremely noticeable.

[carinthian]

4 hours ago, markyo said:

I disagree,the rate of change is the key. Mild winters occur,but the stats speak for themselves. The rate with which we are experiencing them is far out stripping any liner rise or fall you would expect naturally,surely you must agree? The last 50 years data proves it without doubt. Look at the frequency of record breaking figures across the globe year after year now. The climate has changed at a rate never seen before,sorry but that is fact,not my opinion but fact. The driving force is ourselves, anybody who believes other wise is just bearing their head in the sand. Sorry.

Well spoken. Totally agree.

 C

[carinthian]

I  just hate this chart. Its in the short range  and most likely to verify. A long SW ly fetch originating from way down south and pushing far north as the Baltic. A waving cold front to affect North Scotland with pulses of rain and wind that looks like its never going to venture far and Austria stuck under a massive Euro -high. Trash. Defo not my kind of favourite winter synoptic.

C

[Bristawl Si]

4 hours ago, markyo said:

I disagree,the rate of change is the key. Mild winters occur,but the stats speak for themselves. The rate with which we are experiencing them is far out stripping any liner rise or fall you would expect naturally,surely you must agree? The last 50 years data proves it without doubt. Look at the frequency of record breaking figures across the globe year after year now. The climate has changed at a rate never seen before,sorry but that is fact,not my opinion but fact. The driving force is ourselves, anybody who believes other wise is just bearing their head in the sand. Sorry.

What about the period 2009 - 2018? And Feb 09, Dec 09/Jan 10, End Nov 10/December, 2013, March 2018. Notable cold spells in last 10 years.

Cluster of Winters 78-87 (not all cold and snowy but a decent number were). Are our Winters generally milder, here in UK? Doesnt seem much different from my childhood for Southern UK. Mild winters, with odd cold ones.

You've referenced "the globe", but i was talking about the UK.

Pre-WW2? What were the decades like then for UK Winter weather? End 19th century? Not sure, but guess someone has stats.

[MP-R]

7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

I  just hate this chart. Its in the short range  and most likely to verify. A long SW ly fetch originating from way down south and pushing far north as the Baltic. A waving cold front to affect North Scotland with pulses of rain and wind that looks like its never going to venture far and Austria stuck under a massive Euro -high. Trash. Defo not my kind of favourite winter synoptic.

C

So many routes lead to cold in January and the one that delivers mild looks like winning - typical. Not good for alpine snow at all but at least it’ll probably be sunny for you oh beautiful surroundings. Spare a thought for us in the UK stuck under cloud...

[Minus 10]

Scientists Trace Climate-Heat Link Back to 1930s

By John Upton

Published: March 9th, 2016

The world endured a warm year as President Roosevelt wrangled with crippling drought during the first year of his second term. Scientists now say global temperatures that year, in 1937, were record-breaking for the time. The heat record fell again two years later. More records were set in 1940, 1941 and 1944.

For the first time, climate scientists have identified greenhouse gas pollution’s role in global temperatures measured during record-breaking years back to 1937, as industrialized cities and nations continued burning coal to power factories and trains.

Click to enlarge.

“What we found was that we could actually detect human influence on extreme events a lot earlier than we’d thought,” said Daniel Mitchell, an Oxford University physicist who researches climate change. He was part of an international team of scientists that published the findings this week in Geophysical Research Letters.

The most recent global record, set in 2015, easily surpassed a record set just one year earlier. The first two months of 2016 appear to have broken monthly temperature records.

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The team of scientists used earth models to simulate likely temperatures for each year since 1901. Some model runs simulated the effects of greenhouse gas pollution present in the atmosphere at that time; others did not.

By comparing the results, the researchers concluded it was more likely than not that greenhouse gas pollution played a role in setting all of the last 16 yearly global temperature records.

The record set last year saw average temperatures of 1°C (1.8°F) above those of the late 19th century. A United Nations climate agreement was struck in Paris in December, aiming to keep warming “well below” 2°C (3.6°F).

The warming effects of fossil fuel use and deforestation remained relatively slight 80 years ago, when compared with the heavy hand they have played in rapid-fire records set more recently. Even so, the researchers concluded that greenhouse gas pollution in 1937 doubled the likelihood of reaching that year’s high average temperature.

Global warming can contribute to drought.
Credit: Tim J Keegan/Flickr

It would have been “virtually impossible” for earth to have reached record annual average temperatures during this century’s four record-busting years were it not for the effects of greenhouse gas pollution, said Andrew King, a climate change researcher at the University of Melbourne.

King, who led the research, said the group was surprised to see how far back they could detect the role of global warming in fueling record temperatures.

“It’s just kind of scary that we’ve been influencing the climate for a very long time, and we haven’t really done anything substantial to limit our emissions,” King said. “We’ve just made the problem worse and worse.”

Dont shoot the messenger, it was requested

[Minus 10]

The Heat Waves Of The 1930’s

May 10, 2014

tags: 1930's, Heat Waves

By Paul Homewood

 

A Washington, D.C. heat wave cartoon from July 28, 1930. The heat wave is pictured trying to break a "sitting record," imitating the popular flagpole sitters of the day. The summer of 1930 set the record in Washington for number of days that temperatures reached or exceeded 100°F, at 11 days. The hottest temperature of 106°F occurred on July 20. Pulitzer Prize winner Clifford Berryman drew the cartoon. Source: The book "Washington Weather."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/06/the_heat_waves_of_the_1930s.html

 

The heat waves of 1934 and 1936 in Mid West and Great Plains are well known. But, perhaps, what is less well appreciated is that record breaking heat waves were both more extensive geographically and were not just confined to these two years.

The Capital Weather Gang, who write for the Washington Post, wrote this article back in 2010, showing how the heat waves affected Washington DC.

 

Before there was global warming, there were the dust bowl years of the 1930s, also known as "The Dirty Thirties." The record-setting heat waves and drought of the 1930s occurred during the middle of the Great Depression and contributed to the economic hardship felt throughout the nation. They also occurred when most people did not have the comfort of air conditioning and many heat-related deaths were reported. Two years during that decade were particularly hot for our region, 1930 and 1936. Those two years set heat records in Washington which still stand today.

Keep reading to learn more about the heat waves of 1930 and 1936.

The summer of 1930 made headlines due to unprecedented heat and drought that caused disastrous crop failures throughout the United States. The summer of 1930 ushered in the "Dust Bowl" era of unusually hot, dry summers that plagued the U.S. during much of the 1930s.

Washington area farmers were certainly not spared in 1930, as intense, prolonged hot spells gripped the region during late July and early August. The official temperature recorded on July 20 was 106°F, which holds the record as the highest temperature ever recorded in Washington. Unofficially, 110°F was recorded that same day on Pennsylvania Avenue and 108°F at the National Cathedral. The summer of 1930 also set the record for number of days where temperatures reached or exceeded 100°F at 11 days.

High temperatures of over 100°F were recorded during two heat waves that occurred in late July and early August of 1930. The July heat wave high temperatures are as follows:

July 19 – 102°F
July 20 – 106°F
July 21 – 103°F
July 22 – 100°F
July 23 – 94°F
July 24 – 93°F
July 25 – 100°F
July 26 – 100°F

The August heat wave high temperatures are as follows:

August 2 – 94°F
August 3 – 100°F
August 4 – 102°F
August 5 – 102°F
August 6 – 88°F
August 7 – 97°F
August 8 – 104°F
August 9 – 102°F

By the end of the summer of 1930, approximately 30 deaths in Washington were blamed on the heat and thousands more had died nationwide. In Washington, there has never been another summer with a heat wave that has equalled the summer of 1930.

The Heat Chaser hostess gives a Washington policeman a cold drink, August 4, 1936. Temperatures reached 95°F that day. The hottest day of that summer was July 10 when the temperature reached 105°F.Source: The book "Washington Weather."

The summer of 1936 stands out as one of the hottest summers felt across the entire United States. The heat wave began in early summer, with the Midwest experiencing June temperatures exceeding 100°F in some locations. The heat peaked in July, with all-time records set in many cities. Steele, North Dakota recorded a high temperature of 121°F and portions of Canada saw high temperatures exceed 110°F. In Washington, the temperature reached 104°F on July 9 and 105°F on July 10. More than 5,000 heat-related deaths were reported across the United States. The heat wave and drought of 1936 finally eased in September.

For you snow-lovers, how do you think the winters that followed the heat waves of 1930 and 1936 fared for Washingtonians? I can sum it up in one word, depressing. Of course, if you like tennis weather or afternoon strolls without an overcoat, the winters of 1930/31 and 1936/37 were awesome.

During the winter that followed the 1930 heat wave, there were only 3 days which had temperatures below freezing all day and only 2.5" of snow fell during the entire winter season. Temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s were common during the winter months, with 67°F recorded on January 27.

The winter that followed the heat wave of 1936 was even milder than 1930 for Washington. During that winter, there was only 1 day which had temperatures below freezing all day and temperatures in the 60’s were common throughout the winter months. An amazing high temperature of 76°F was recorded on January 9. A few late season wet snowstorms salvaged the winter for snow in Washington, with a little over 15" reported for the season.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/06/the_heat_waves_of_the_1930s.html

 

 

As I mentioned, the article was written in 2010, so how does the summer of 1930 compare with 2012?

 

The monthly meteorological observations at Laurel MD, the nearest USHCN station to Washington, 50km away suggest that 2012 does not even come close. The monthly reports for July/August are copied below, but can be summarised. (The quality of the 1930 sheets is a bit rough, but the numbers are also confirmed via the Maryland State Climatological Reports).

 

 19302012

No of Days >= 100F122

No of Days >= 95F2110

Top Temperature106F102F

 

 

It is also worth noting that the all-time maximum temperature record for Maryland is 109F, originally set in 1898 and subsequently tied in 1918 and 1936.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

[Minus 10]

Whilst it is probable that remote areas of the Australian desert have seen extreme temperatures that have gone unrecorded, the outback Queensland town of Cloncurry originally held the record for the highest known temperature in the shade, at 53.1 °C (127.5 °F) on 16 January 1889. Cloncurry is a small town in northwest Queensland, Australia, about 770km west of Townsville.

The Cloncurry record was later removed from Australian records because it was measured using unsuitable equipment (that is, not in a Stevenson screen, which only became widespread in Australian usage after about 1910). According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the current heat record is held by Oodnadatta, South Australia, 50.7 degrees Celsius, occurring on 2 January 1960.

The world heat record for consecutive days goes to Marble Bar in Western Australia, which recorded maximum temperatures equaling or over 37.8°C on 161 consecutive days, between 30 October 1923 and 7 April 1924.

101112

Related Questions

Asked in Meteorology and Weather, Australia, Australian Capital Territory and Canberra

Which Australian state or territory has recorded the highest temperature of 53c?

The highest recorded temperature in Australia of was 53 degrees C was recorded at Cloncurry, Queensland, on 16 January 1889.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wonder what the odds of N blocking taking hold again are as we get into May?

[Minus 10]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Wonder what the odds of N blocking taking hold again are as we get into May?

im putting 110 euros on it lol