Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[snowblizzard]

Time for drinkies me thinks!

Merry Christmas to all on Netweather Community

[carinthian]

Evening all, horror chart to welcome the New Year in. Could not think of a worse chart for Euroland and the folks back home ( cold lovers ) Think I will go to the pub and drown my sorrows for the next few days.

 C

[Don]

14 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Evening all, horror chart to welcome the New Year in. Could not think of a worse chart for Euroland and the folks back home ( cold lovers ) Think I will go to the pub and drown my sorrows for the next few days.

 C

Agreed, that's about as bad as it gets for cold weather lovers...... Time is ticking on now, too! 

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, Don said:

TBH what ever your opinion is on weather types (be it cold/snow, heat/thunderstorms, wet/wild/stormy/mild) you are going to get someone's back up!  Obviously, all weather extremes can be damaging.  It does feel on here that sometimes if your opinion is not what others like, you are accused of trolling!  (This is not aimed at you by the way.)  Take the above example of us not needing a 2013/14 repeat.  If I (or anyone) said a repeat would be good, they would be subject to stick from some about not thinking about those who live on flood plains!  And lets face it, we are far more likely to experience 2013/14 type winters moving forward, than a 1962/3 repeat.  However, all being said, I do get your point.  

Just to add, I'm not bitter towards weather preferences, I mention 2013/14 as we have endured a very wet autumn and could do with some drier weather. However, that's not to say I frown upon people who like stormy/wet/mild winters, and have never stated otherwise.

Well said and my post was more for anyone else that does indeed frown upon it my post wasn't purely aimed at you btw.. Don't get me wrong some snow right now would be lovely I went to a lake today again that I posted pictures of on Saturday it has receded a lot in the last 2 days which is good. 

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Agreed, that's about as bad as it gets for cold weather lovers...... Time is ticking on now, too! 

Don, I am lucky at 1650m asl and have a white Christmas but its no where cold as it should be with temps just hovering around freezing. Most places below 1000m throughout the whole of Europe snow free .  Looks like start to one of the worse winters in living memory for much of Euroland. ( mild wise )

 C

Edited December 23, 2019 by carinthian

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Agreed, that's about as bad as it gets for cold weather lovers...... Time is ticking on now, too! 

Waste of long nights. Terrible charts , some of the worse I have ever seen from a  cold point prospective. All models in agreement  for a prolonged mild spell. Funny they can never agree for a rare cold spell to occur and those promise charts are always at 15 days away and disappear lie a rare snow flake on the south coast of England. 

C

[emmett garland]

Never a truer word spoke

[Don]

36 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Waste of long nights. Terrible charts , some of the worse I have ever seen from a  cold point prospective. All models in agreement  for a prolonged mild spell. Funny they can never agree for a rare cold spell to occur and those promise charts are always at 15 days away and disappear lie a rare snow flake on the south coast of England. 

C

I mentioned earlier that searching for cold the way things are currently is almost like looking for it in July!  It just seems like such a long shot.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Don

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I mentioned earlier that searching for cold the way things are currently is almost like looking for it in July!  It just seems like such a long shot.

Don, Alaska on track for extreme cold. Along way from Blighty though.  Some thing weird going on. Another record year for above average temps. Onward and upwards. Since I came over here in 2005 , I have seen the glaciers retreat yearly with my own eyes. Scary scenario. 

C

[mathematician]

This damn global warming! And nobody is doing anything about it! As usual people will wake up when it's way too late... 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Don, Alaska on track for extreme cold. Along way from Blighty though.  Some thing weird going on. Another record year for above average temps. Onward and upwards. Since I came over here in 2005 , I have seen the glaciers retreat yearly with my own eyes. Scary scenario. 

C

Fairbanks Friday max -40, min -41, yuk, love it when rest of world is above average

[Don]

57 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Don, Alaska on track for extreme cold. Along way from Blighty though.  Some thing weird going on. Another record year for above average temps. Onward and upwards. Since I came over here in 2005 , I have seen the glaciers retreat yearly with my own eyes. Scary scenario. 

C

Not sure that will help cold to these shores, though.  I have a feeling that Alaska suffered a very cold winter in 1988/89, too.  The weird thing going on is global warming.  I cannot see how we will stop global temperatures exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial temperature levels (after which impacts are likely to be dangerous according to scientists), when global temperatures for the last 5 years have been around 1C above those averages and the metoffice are forecasting 2020 to follow suite!  Also, hasn't most of this temperature increase occurred during the last 50 years?!  Therefore the world has certainly got its work cut out to limit further warming to 0.5C!

Edited December 23, 2019 by Don

[Frost HoIIow]

58 minutes ago, mathematician said:

This damn global warming! And nobody is doing anything about it! As usual people will wake up when it's way too late... 

Tell me about it! I'm sick of selfish people using cars, mobile phones & computers. And that Greta Thunberg always on Twitter. When will they learn? 

[swfc]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Don, Alaska on track for extreme cold. Along way from Blighty though.  Some thing weird going on. Another record year for above average temps. Onward and upwards. Since I came over here in 2005 , I have seen the glaciers retreat yearly with my own eyes. Scary scenario. 

C

Problem is carinthian people would rather watch I'm a celebrity and concentrate on EastEnders.the evidence is there for those that care.god help us!!!

Edited December 23, 2019 by swfc

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Tell me about it! I'm sick of selfish people using cars, mobile phones & computers. And that Greta Thunberg always on Twitter. When will they learn? 

Never!!!people are more interested in money.not just the rich it's Joe public.they sort there bins out in order and think it's fine.in reality there more concerned over there big car,and triple glazing.this planet needs rid of humans there a disgrace and not worthy of this planet!!!

[abruzzi spur]

Funny isn't it how things change.  I used to crave snow and ice.  I was 13 in the winter of 78/79, living in Bristol and it was the perfect spell of winter weather for my age.  With hindsight it was probably only a couple of weeks out of the whole winter but when you're young a week is an age.  In 87 aged 22 I was in Liverpool which was not deeply cold where we were, moderated by the sea and the Mersey,  but there were some great falls of snow.  In 1991 living in Wimbledon at the summit of what, in London, passes for high ground, the Common was frigid, the ground hard like iron and I have a photo of me, looking thin then and not just by a trick of the lens, in my flying jacket standing in the middle but on top of a deep frozen pond in the ice leaning hard on the 'danger thin ice' sign.

Since then not so many memories that have stuck.  2010 December down here in the Surrey Hills was really snowy and cold.  That's the last time I wore my crampons, walking the pavements thick with verglas and people tottering and falling wondering how I was immune as my 12 steel points pierced the carapace of ice and gripped the frozen snow beneath.

I've done some winter mountaineering in Scotland, Aonach Eagach ridge, Beinn A'Chorrain north east ridge, winter skills on the Ben.  In the Alps autumn mountaineering above Chamonix, proper hard going in landscapes of utter beauty.  Roped together, ice axes, crampons on rigid boots, the light from head torches turning the ice blue at 4am and skimming across the narrow openings to crevasses into which you could fall and drag your friends.

Here some are though, same as every year (I used to be one), looking for a 'chase' for wintry nirvana that is offered, or at least teased, by a few on this site but rarely if ever delivered.   

My approach these days is to assume it will be mild most of winter and with rain at levels around or above average.  We might get a few days of cooler than average and maybe the odd burst of cold but nothing of any import.  I still want to spend some time in air cold enough to hurt my lungs and clear enough at night to see for ever.    

Edited December 23, 2019 by abruzzi spur

[JeffC]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Lol quite  but just for fun  this chart would see snow  even from the warm Atlantic 

Bank!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Spending a few days getting my annual snow fix in Val Thorens, French Alps    

Chalet Val 2400 (2400 Metres asl)

Heavy snow at the moment which is forecast to last most of the day, temperature is around -6c

Winter wonderland!

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

From Judah Cohen's latest blog

"I have said many times the first thing that you learn as a seasonal forecaster is humility and these are one of those times.  What is humbling me at the moment is that I have expected a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) based on fall Arctic predictors – extensive Siberian snow cover, more limited Arctic sea ice extent and a relatively warm Arctic.  Following the PV weakening or disruption, severe winter weather would be more frequent at least regionally across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH).  But to be honest it is hard to see from today’s viewpoint how this verifies.  And as I have shared on Twitter the new operational GFS, the FV3, has been especially bullish on a strong PV.

The biggest challenge that I see right now is the center of low mid-tropospheric heights currently just north of Alaska and is expected to expand in breadth over the next two weeks enough so to fill the entire Arctic basin.  This a fairly class pattern of low heights in the Arctic and high heights in the mid-latitudes resulting in a cold Arctic/warm continents pattern, all consistent with a positive AO.  It seems a bit ironic (at least to me) that with the record low sea ice in the Chukchi-Bering seas this fall, the incredibly warm year Alaska just experienced both in part due to persistent ridging in the region, this same region is predicted to now experience an extended period of low heights and below normal temperatures.  As an aside, this is something that I had a hard time anticipating even just a few weeks ago.  Another example where it is easy to become overconfident in outcomes based on recent trends. By itself this is not necessarily a threat to the veracity of the forecast but coupled with a strong stratospheric PV this pattern could become persistent and even dominate the winter means.  I would be confident in a near term pattern reversal with a forecast of Ural/Scandinavian blocking as predicted by the GFS last week, but the GFS has backed off those forecasts.

But if I don’t see much reason to feel confident about the forecast, in large part contingent on a weak/disrupted PV, I also don’t see strong evidence to walk away from the forecast.  Maybe in large part because it has been challenging for the weather models to correctly predict the state of the polar stratosphere and the behavior of the polar vortex with so many poor and contradicting forecasts and therefore, I have low confidence in any one scenario or outcome.

So, for now I remain steadfast in the winter forecast that based on high fall snow cover/low Arctic sea ice that they will in tandem perturb the PV.  Given the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) I expect a scenario somewhere between winter 2016/17 and winter 2017/18.  Both of those winters were westerly QBO winters and the most significant disruption of the stratospheric PV took place in February.  The PV disruption in February 2018 was achieved major warming status and the coupling to the surface was much stronger.  Still the more minor disruption in February 2017 did result in coupling to the surface and an increase in severe winter weather, at least as far as snowfall in the Northeastern US.  I include in Figure i, the polar cap geopotential height anomaly (PCH) plot from this winter starting on October 1, 2019 and the analogous plots from winter 2016/17 and 2017/18 for comparison.It is my impression that often winter shows its true character around the transition of the calendar year.  It seems to me that December is often an outlier to winter as a whole that January-March are more in common weather-wise with December going its own way.  It will be interesting to see what the weather models are predicting in about a week’s time.  I will be especially focused on the atmospheric vertical energy transfer. The below normal sea ice in the Barents Kara Seas and the lack of snow cover in Eastern Europe both favor heating of the atmospheric column and high pressure in that region so favorable for exciting vertical energy transfer.  But as we are seeing now, favorable boundary conditions don’t always translate into atmospheric anomalies."

AO Blog Update | AER | Weather Risk Assessment

WWW.AER.COM

---

December 16, 2019 - Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) embarked on an experimental...

 

[Don]

33 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

From Judah Cohen's latest blog

So, for now I remain steadfast in the winter forecast that based on high fall snow cover/low Arctic sea ice that they will in tandem perturb the PV.  Given the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) I expect a scenario somewhere between winter 2016/17 and winter 2017/18.  Both of those winters were westerly QBO winters and the most significant disruption of the stratospheric PV took place in February.  

AO Blog Update | AER | Weather Risk Assessment

WWW.AER.COM

---

December 16, 2019 - Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) embarked on an experimental...

 

I'm sure 2017/18 was an easterly QBO winter?

[lassie23]

56 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

From Judah Cohen's latest blog

"I have said many times the first thing that you learn as a seasonal forecaster is humility and these are one of those times.  What is humbling me at the moment is that I have expected a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) based on fall Arctic predictors – extensive Siberian snow cover, more limited Arctic sea ice extent and a relatively warm Arctic.  Following the PV weakening or disruption, severe winter weather would be more frequent at least regionally across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH).  But to be honest it is hard to see from today’s viewpoint how this verifies.  And as I have shared on Twitter the new operational GFS, the FV3, has been especially bullish on a strong PV.

The biggest challenge that I see right now is the center of low mid-tropospheric heights currently just north of Alaska and is expected to expand in breadth over the next two weeks enough so to fill the entire Arctic basin.  This a fairly class pattern of low heights in the Arctic and high heights in the mid-latitudes resulting in a cold Arctic/warm continents pattern, all consistent with a positive AO.  It seems a bit ironic (at least to me) that with the record low sea ice in the Chukchi-Bering seas this fall, the incredibly warm year Alaska just experienced both in part due to persistent ridging in the region, this same region is predicted to now experience an extended period of low heights and below normal temperatures.  As an aside, this is something that I had a hard time anticipating even just a few weeks ago.  Another example where it is easy to become overconfident in outcomes based on recent trends. By itself this is not necessarily a threat to the veracity of the forecast but coupled with a strong stratospheric PV this pattern could become persistent and even dominate the winter means.  I would be confident in a near term pattern reversal with a forecast of Ural/Scandinavian blocking as predicted by the GFS last week, but the GFS has backed off those forecasts.

But if I don’t see much reason to feel confident about the forecast, in large part contingent on a weak/disrupted PV, I also don’t see strong evidence to walk away from the forecast.  Maybe in large part because it has been challenging for the weather models to correctly predict the state of the polar stratosphere and the behavior of the polar vortex with so many poor and contradicting forecasts and therefore, I have low confidence in any one scenario or outcome.

So, for now I remain steadfast in the winter forecast that based on high fall snow cover/low Arctic sea ice that they will in tandem perturb the PV.  Given the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) I expect a scenario somewhere between winter 2016/17 and winter 2017/18.  Both of those winters were westerly QBO winters and the most significant disruption of the stratospheric PV took place in February.  The PV disruption in February 2018 was achieved major warming status and the coupling to the surface was much stronger.  Still the more minor disruption in February 2017 did result in coupling to the surface and an increase in severe winter weather, at least as far as snowfall in the Northeastern US.  I include in Figure i, the polar cap geopotential height anomaly (PCH) plot from this winter starting on October 1, 2019 and the analogous plots from winter 2016/17 and 2017/18 for comparison.It is my impression that often winter shows its true character around the transition of the calendar year.  It seems to me that December is often an outlier to winter as a whole that January-March are more in common weather-wise with December going its own way.  It will be interesting to see what the weather models are predicting in about a week’s time.  I will be especially focused on the atmospheric vertical energy transfer. The below normal sea ice in the Barents Kara Seas and the lack of snow cover in Eastern Europe both favor heating of the atmospheric column and high pressure in that region so favorable for exciting vertical energy transfer.  But as we are seeing now, favorable boundary conditions don’t always translate into atmospheric anomalies."

AO Blog Update | AER | Weather Risk Assessment

WWW.AER.COM

---

December 16, 2019 - Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) embarked on an experimental...

 

If Judah Cohen  is even throwing in the towel then things must be desperate, what next........James Madden predicting a mild January and Feb?

[Nath]

7 hours ago, carinthian said:

Evening all, horror chart to welcome the New Year in. Could not think of a worse chart for Euroland and the folks back home ( cold lovers ) Think I will go to the pub and drown my sorrows for the next few days.

 C

That chart is horrific, one of the worst I have ever seen on here in 15 years!

[SLEETY]

Don't worry big changes late January onwards....

[Northwest NI]

I’ve  borrowed my own post from the “Music from Cold Winters” thread because I think we all deserve a lift .....Not models, but we don’t really need that poo right now. Agreed?

The words just scream everything we want

”where joy should reign, these skies restrain”

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by Northwest NI

[Summer Sun]

Weatheronline month ahead forecast

Quote

 

Valid from 29/12 to 25/01 2020

Issued: Sunday 22nd December 2019
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

A colder end to January, probably drier than December overall

High pressure is likely to be more prevalent around the UK than it has been in December. This drifts north of the UK from mid-month and then tends to lead to cooler weather. There is uncertainty about the proximity of low pressure to the south. This could bring some wintry weather.

*29/12/19 - 4/1/20*

• Higher pressure building. Drier conditions. Cooler in northwest wind. Some rain northwest Scotland.

*5/1/20 - 11/1/20*

• Pressure continues to build. Drier weather, sunny spells. Overnight frosts.

*12/1/20 - 18/1/20*

• Hints of higher pressure building to north. May be a tendency towards an easterly flow. Cooler weather may arrive for all. Chance of some sleet in south.

*19/1/20 - 25/1/20*

• Could stay colder. High pressure north. Northeast flow. Risk wintry weather?

*26/1/20 to 1/2/20*

• Higher pressure stays to north. Westerly flow developing. May stay cold. Remaining risk wintry weather.

**ends**

Simon Keeling

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm