Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Catacol]

54 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think there is some merit to the suggestion of a shift N/expansion of Hadley cell tbh, which would explain why we're seeing mean HP more influential to our S. We've seen occasions that have featured N blocking but HP to the SW/S/SE has ultimately kept us from the cold.

True. The Hadley Cell is shifting gradually to the north, often described as the sub tropical high pressure belt. 

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For the UK we have seen the effects of this in the last decade for sure, with the continent increasing in temperature. For us snowpers this means a narrower margin of error when hunting for a cold continental feed, but I also think it means in general it is more difficult for northern blocking to become established. When westerly momentum increases in the tropics the consequent loss of momentum in the extra tropics is being squeezed into a narrower latitude, and while the US continent is able to benefit from the ever increasing tendency for high pressure in the North Pacific due to warming waters, it means locally we have winter cyclogenisis hitting an Atlantic which is less disposed to block at high latitude and heights over Europe stronger....and this means the classic undercut scenarios we crave for heavy dumps of snow is getting harder to achieve.

Impossible to achieve? No. But my personal view is that early season cold, because of the seasonal cranking up of the vortex in December, is going to become even more rare than it has been in the past. 2010was a huge outlier caused by extreme conditions - and extreme incidents including the Beast of Feb/Mar 18 may become more frequent....but for the average UK winter under average conditions December is going to increasingly feel like an extension of autumn. Our winter season will shorten, and it will become compressed into Jan and Feb with later options in March hanging on impacts of vortex disruption.

And so snow hunting is increasingly going to hang on the need to disrupt the strat vortex....and hope for conditions conducive to downwelling.

All in all not a happy context going forward. Cold winters to become more of a 1 in 10 rather than a 1 in 5 event? Probably.

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

All talk of the Hadley cell pushing north aside, hasn't  December for the most part always been far more Autumnal than Wintry in a UK context anyway. And as for Winters becoming more restricted to January and February, I thought this realistically has always been the case, though to be honest I've often felt it is these two months in recent years that have delivered less anyway rather than December which if anything has been  maybe slightly more snowy than either it seems to me, certainly February anyway, though I suppose we've had a couple of March's to make up for it. As for 2010 that was a fairly rare type of December in any era not just now. We don't even have to go back as far as then though for a more likely cold type of December. 2017 was fantastic here in the Midlands, Wales and Scotland too. Even parts of the south east had some snow and it wasn't anywhere near as cold as 2010. Shame it wasn't far more nationwide otherwise it would have been more fondly remembered, but still a good range of UK regions had snow. I don't think anywhere had a white Christmas, though close with snow on Boxing Day in parts of Scotland and the Midlands. 

This December isn't anywhere near as good so far but with still more than half the month to go, nobody can rule out somewhere in the country (not just high ground) getting a good snow event before the month is out.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Walsall Wood Snow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The rain is incredible tonight, this wasn’t forecast on TV, the roads are flooded and its tipping down again.  
That for me brings FI much closer in

 BFTP

[snowblizzard]

I think I post this every year!

How many times during the past 50 years have we seen severe cold wintry weather in December?

It's pretty rare, 2010 being the last instance.

Surely, with global warming, outbreaks of severe cold will become less frequent in the UK, especially in the South.

But, we should still have a chance (albeit slim) as we move into the latter stage of winter, more likely during February or early March! 

Sobering thought!

 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

9 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

I think I post this every year!

How many times during the past 50 years have we seen severe cold wintry weather in December?

It's pretty rare, 2010 being the last instance.

Surely, with global warming, outbreaks of severe cold will become less frequent in the UK, especially in the South.

But, we should still have a chance (albeit slim) as we move into the latter stage of winter, more likely during February or early March! 

Sobering thought!

 

 

Couldn't agree more, sb!!

This is something I've been "banging on" about, for a while now.

I'm 64 now and in all the 50+ Years of being interested in Meteorology, I can only remember 2 notable pre-Xmas Snowy Spells, those of December 1981 and December 2010. Snow is indeed a pretty rare visitor, especially to the South of the U.K, in the first official Month of Winter and even more so to my "neck of the woods", in S.E.London.

Even that Cold and Snowy Winter of 1962/63, didn't begin in the South of the U.K., until Boxing Day. I was 7 at the time and have some vague memories of that epic Winter. Snow lay on the ground from that Day, to a greater or lesser extent, until the first Week in March.

The Cold and Snow of the 1978/79 Winter, didn't begin in the South of the U.K., until the epic Snowstorm of 30th/31st December and then "waxed and waned", throughout the following January and February. 

Yet every Winter we witness the same "gnashing of teeth" by certain Members, when Cold and Snow doesn't come to fruition, before Xmas. 'Twas ever the case!!

Regards,

Tom.     

Edited December 15, 2019 by TomSE12

[Sunny76]

10 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

I think I post this every year!

How many times during the past 50 years have we seen severe cold wintry weather in December?

It's pretty rare, 2010 being the last instance.

Surely, with global warming, outbreaks of severe cold will become less frequent in the UK, especially in the South.

But, we should still have a chance (albeit slim) as we move into the latter stage of winter, more likely during February or early March! 

Sobering thought!

 

 

I still think mild Decembers or average ones have always been the norm. 
 

My uncle said the 1970s was when things started to change towards a slight warming, as most of them were mild. And much milder compared to the 1960s.

Only Christmas 1970 and 78/79 were really cold ones. 

[Sunny76]

Another 1981 or 2010 will happen again, but it could easily be another 10 or 15 years before it happens again. We had to wait 29 years, although December 1995 was a cold one. 

[Jason M]

Feb was a real shock to me. Days of temps around 20c!!!! No doubt our climate is changing with increasing speed.

Cold is still possible but my expectations for this winter are very low indeed. I suspect it might be snowless down here. One of those winters where if your offered a one day of proper snow you bank it!!

Fingers crossed I'm wrong. I suspect a non descript Jan and an early spring in mid Feb might be where were headed as heights build over Iberia into new year.

[MP-R]

Right now I really wouldn’t mind a lengthy dry spell. 2019 is going to end up being a wet year overall despite a dry Jan/Feb and midsummer.

Either a cold high or a mild high. I’m really not bothered just to get out if this disgusting pattern we’ve been in since mid September!

[Aleman]

15 hours ago, hillbilly said:

Yes they are a couple of weeks apart but strangly in summer they are only a few days apart.It may not always appear that way though as the dull and gloomy weather over 2 weeks ago made the nights seem earlier than they are now.If you got that kind of weather now it would be dark very early.Similarly in summer if it is very clear with a full moon it stays very light,i remember working on the farm at 2 am outside with no lights and you could see clearly across the valley.

Now then, I used to help on farm in Thornton and got to others in Denholme, Cullingworth, Ogden and Queensbury when I was a kid, being transported around standing on just a PTO shaft no less! We used to get LOTS of snow - I've seen 15 foot drifts and complete car burying was common for a few years in the late 70s and early 80s - but I don't ever remember any before Christmas.

[topo]

Same here. Even though there is a noticeable trend towards milder winters (especially the first half of them), the big snow events here were always from mid January onwards. 

Use google translate 

Betydelig færre år med hvit jul på Sør- og Østlandet

WWW.NRK.NO

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Ønsker du deg snø til jul, vil du sannsynligvis måtte komme deg opp i høyden eller til nord for å finne den. For mange i dette langstrakte land er ikke...

 

[SLEETY]

Some good points regarding December,its rarely  been a cold and snowy month throughout the history of u.k.winters.

Snow is much more likely in jan or february,and even March in recent years.

You do not have to be an expert of the climate of the u.k. to know it’s always been a rather poor month for snow and cold,trouble is January hasn’t been particularly cold or snowy either in recent decades,too much high pressure in the wrong place.

Is that because of global warming? maybe or just a phase as the early 19th century hadva lot of mild January’s.

Edited December 15, 2019 by SLEETY

[hillbilly]

4 hours ago, Aleman said:

Now then, I used to help on farm in Thornton and got to others in Denholme, Cullingworth, Ogden and Queensbury when I was a kid, being transported around standing on just a PTO shaft no less! We used to get LOTS of snow - I've seen 15 foot drifts and complete car burying was common for a few years in the late 70s and early 80s - but I don't ever remember any before Christmas.

Your not far from me then,i used to live and work on farms in our area between 1100 and 1200ft above Sowerby being a kid in the 70s.I remember the discussion with a farmer in the late 90s saying I couldn't believe it hadn't snowed before Xmas.Anyway am happy now as it is white on the tops here even though there is none in the valley right now.

[feb1991blizzard]

Beijing climate centre has a huge blocking high to the North and a powerhouse Easterly for January.

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, Donegal said:

Europe is so mild. Warsaw daily max temperatures 9c above average some days this week. Rain in moscow, zero ice days there this week ahead . The examples are endless. Have model fatigue already. 

Yes, same across much of Central Europe. Many lowland places not yet to see a snowflake. Christmas Markets no snow cover unless 1500m up a mountain. 

[SLEETY]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Beijing climate centre has a huge blocking high to the North and a powerhouse Easterly for January.

Do you have link to see it? thx 

[snowray]

Although I remember going to Europe as a youngster either before or after Christmas, and New Years back in the 80's and 90's and it was always cold, freezing temps on the French trains with no heating, snow. Seems to have all changed for the worse since the 2000's, apart from 2009/2010. I mean we should be seeing at least one decent topler/Northerly blast in late November and December most years, surely. These days its just cold rain all the time.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Do you have link to see it? thx 

No but its on Gavin Partridges latest update today - go to his youtube or his website.

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, Donegal said:

My French friend lives close to the Swiss border at 300m asl, gives 15c there on Tuesday. He said the last couple of Winters have been exceptionally mild and practically snowless. 

Yes and crazy positive temp anom over much of Europe for the big day. Could be some slushy ski resorts apart from Scotland and Norway.

C

[Mr Frost]

Forget Central Europe/Alps - just come up here to the West Coast of Scotland for some snow. 

Lovely weekend of wintry weather (Above 300 meters) and not for the first time this Autumn/Winter. 

Have a good night everyone!

[SLEETY]

8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Do you have link to see it? thx 

Found it for those interested 

 

Beijing Climate Center

BCC.NCC-CMA.NET

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Edited December 15, 2019 by SLEETY

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No but its on Gavin Partridges latest update today - go to his youtube or his website.

Is it the usual 9-hours' long, feb?

[daz_4]

This will be record breaking mild spell in Central Europe and the longetivity is unheard of. The lowest night temps next week will be above 10C on many days. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Is it the usual 9-hours' long, feb?

about 23 mins - its right at the end - the last item he discusses - if you ask me the BCC has got the months the wrong war around - can't see that happening in Jan but possible for Feb.

[Don]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Yes and crazy positive temp anom over much of Europe for the big day. Could be some slushy ski resorts apart from Scotland and Norway.

C

An eye opener that is!