Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Mr Frost]

I would take a festive week like December 2017! (26th until the end of the year)

We had two settling snowfalls on the 26th and 29th - perfect time of the year for it! (Articles from each date below)

Blanket of snow covers part of Scotland for Boxing Day with weather warnings still in place across the country - Daily Record

WWW.DAILYRECORD.CO.UK

---

Forecasters reckoned there was a slim chance of the white stuff for Christmas, but rain turned to snow late on Christmas Day.

 

Heavy snow disrupts travel across Scotland

WWW.BBC.COM

---

Snow hits the central and southern belts of the country with warnings of strong winds to come.

Back garden of my old house that week.

Winter 2017/18 really was fantastic up here.

Edited December 10, 2019 by Mr Frost

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

I would take a festive week like December 2017! (26th until the end of the year)

We had two settling snowfalls on the 26th and 29th - perfect time of the year for it! (Articles from each date below)

Blanket of snow covers part of Scotland for Boxing Day with weather warnings still in place across the country - Daily Record

WWW.DAILYRECORD.CO.UK

---

Forecasters reckoned there was a slim chance of the white stuff for Christmas, but rain turned to snow late on Christmas Day.

 

Heavy snow disrupts travel across Scotland

WWW.BBC.COM

---

Snow hits the central and southern belts of the country with warnings of strong winds to come.

Winter 2017/18 was fantastic up here!

Agree winter 2017/2018 wasn't bad overall, it had a few wintry episodes which were well spaced out, to keep it interesting. End of November and opening 10 days of December brought alot of cold frosty weather. The period 26-29th Dec 2017 brought cold weather and we had 2-3 inches of snow on 29th. Third week of January was cold with some snow at times, nothing significant. Latter half of February became progressively colder lots of frost, and then heavy snow on the 28th.

 

[Mr Frost]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Agree winter 2017/2018 wasn't bad overall, it had a few wintry episodes which were well spaced out, to keep it interesting. End of November and opening 10 days of December brought alot of cold frosty weather. The period 26-29th Dec 2017 brought cold weather and we had 2-3 inches of snow on 29th. Third week of January was cold with some snow at times, nothing significant. Latter half of February became progressively colder lots of frost, and then heavy snow on the 28th.

 

Funny you mention all that - was just browsing my pictures from those spells.

Start of December 2017 had plenty of frost/freezing fog and a couple of ice days with a thick cover on the mountains.

 

January 16th 2018 was a day of heavy snow showers and thunder snow! 

 

January 17th

 

January 21st

 

Then of course the BFTE arrived - pictures from 28th February.

 

In between all the above dates there was more days with settling snow/frosts.

I will never forget that Winter - great times!

[Sky Full]

WARNING - Ramp Alert!

Cor!!  Get a look at these post-boxing day sequences from the CFS  (Charts For Smiles):

   

New Years Eve meltdown on NETWEATHER....if it ever happens.  But one computer model shows it, so it must be at least possible, right?  Won't be there tomorrow though - shame.

Daren't post this in the MOD thread - I'd get lynched!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Hi Catacol, re highlighted bit, do you think that the progression of the MJO is hindered by the record positive IOD?  I'm trying to get my head round why this leads to increased likelihood of westerlies for us.

Will let @Catacol answer your question as I don't understand the ins and outs of the IOD but found these tweets 

 

 

 

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Hi Catacol, re highlighted bit, do you think that the progression of the MJO is hindered by the record positive IOD?  I'm trying to get my head round why this leads to increased likelihood of westerlies for us.

Probably - the warm/cold pattern in the Indian ocean has been fixed for so long that it has created a standing wave forcing that is acting like a static wave machine. Normally the centre of convection travels from west to east and so the energy waves have a moving context....but at the moment less so. This is possibly enhanced by the semi permanent low over Kamchatka. And the cold water in the Indian Ocean acts a bit like a barrier - convection runs into it and fades. You can see the "barrier" clearly in this chart - a pretty solid swathe of blue/purple of the left of the diagramme that equates with the Indian Ocean. It has been fixed in that locale for weeks now.

However the truth is that the last MJO wave ended its transition at the end of November and so we are waiting in any case for the next wave to get going. They have a periodicity of anywhere between 30 and 60 days, but more commonly 30-45 days hence the reasoned guess that the next wave will begin to make a move across the IO and into the pacific in the next 2/3 weeks. With the IOD possibly on the fade now also we are expecting some kind of progress towards phase 6/7/8 towards month's end. The greater the convection signal the better..

And those are the phases that work to add westerly momentum around the maritimes/western pacific, help undermine the strength of the sub tropical high pressure belt, and consequently promote a greater high latitude blocking signal. As a result they connect to ridge/trough patterns in high latitudes that provide disruption to the vortex. 

All this is why so much attention is paid to the pacific and the forcing it creates - though obviously in our locale it isn't the only driver that is making things happen. However it is probably the most significant single feature that impacts across the hemisphere and sets the upstream pattern in motion.

Edited December 10, 2019 by Catacol

[knocker]

Surely I won't need factor 40

[Aleman]

Will anyone in southern England see snow today? Some roads in Scotland are white on webcams. showers are coming shore as sleet all the way down to Cornwall and I've just seen radar show one band of sleet briefly flick to snow at Padstow. That band might turn to snow over Dartmoor and Exmoor. I've even seen some spots of sleety stuff at Poole and then north of Portsmouth.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Aleman

[Met.]

I would like absolutely no snow at the christmas period, yes, there's a selfish interest, due to travelling around that time, and also the fact it will affect others travelling. Plenty of time in Jan+Feb for snow!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Might stick a tenner for Leeds this Xmas

[Missdolly]

Honestly it's crazy in the mods , I've silently been observing the last two weeks some have completely written off winter ! Off course we'd love a white Christmas but who knows what will happen . I personally think we'll have more snow than last year , its just 3 degrees here today in the Beacons of South Wales ! 

Pram throwing needs to stop

[SLEETY]

Dec is rarely a cold and snowy month,so people writing off December arent proving their clever or anything as it’s normal for the month not to be severe or anything.

Think we have never had a single Cet in December of even -1 c ,proves the point

The trick is to try and forecast when a cold spell is likely,and not many are successful in doing that,only the Met seem pretty good,they forecast the cold spell of March 2018 weeks in advance.

Seems and age that we have had severe cold and snow in Janauary,perhaps this will change this time..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Dec is rarely a cold and snowy month,so people writing off December arent proving their clever or anything as it’s normal for the month not to be severe or anything.

Think we have never had a single Cet in December of even -1 c ,proves the point

The trick is to try and forecast when a cold spell is likely,and not many are successful in doing that,only the Met seem pretty good,they forecast the cold spell of March 2018 weeks in advance.

Seems and age that we have had severe cold and snow in Janauary,perhaps this will change this time..

Jan is the month that seems have changed the most in TMW, used to be guaranteed snow, but nowadays it's probably the most westerly month of the year, only places to see snow off the WSW'lys is high ground oop norf, between systems

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Dec is rarely a cold and snowy month,so people writing off December arent proving their clever or anything as it’s normal for the month not to be severe or anything.

Think we have never had a single Cet in December of even -1 c ,proves the point

The trick is to try and forecast when a cold spell is likely,and not many are successful in doing that,only the Met seem pretty good,they forecast the cold spell of March 2018 weeks in advance.

Seems and age that we have had severe cold and snow in Janauary,perhaps this will change this time..

I think you will find if you look back at the relevant threads that folks on here predicted that weeks in advance as well.  Just saying.

[Guest Delete Me]

Wrexham / Stoke looking favourable for some decent snowfall in the early hours of Sunday on the 18z

[Tuxedo]

On 08/12/2019 at 09:29, Freeze said:

You only have to go back not even 2 years to find one of the single most severe cold spells in March with blizzards I even had a max of -2c and my house is about a minutes walk from the seafront 

 

I’m not saying we won’t continue to experience cold snaps but you are burying your head in the sand if you cannot see the effect of what GW is now having on our winters/climate. Mild, wet Atlantic driven weather is now the common denominator. Our planet is warming up and we are now physically experiencing this effect. It doesn’t mean we will no longer see snow or frosts but it’s becoming very obvious that this trend is diminishing. Any cold blocks are not sustainable when they do occur. You only have to look back 10 to 20 years to see this change. It disheartens me to write this as I love the seasons: Cold winters / warm summers with spring and autumn in between. Sadly even these differences are being eroded and the peaks in each season are being flattened and our temperate climate is becoming less temperate as GW increases. 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Tuxedo said:

 

I’m not saying we won’t continue to experience cold snaps but you are burying your head in the sand if you cannot see the effect of what GW is now having on our winters/climate. Mild, wet Atlantic driven weather is now the common denominator. Our planet is warming up and we are now physically experiencing this effect. It doesn’t mean we will no longer see snow or frosts but it’s becoming very obvious that this trend is diminishing. Any cold blocks are not sustainable when they do occur. You only have to look back 10 to 20 years to see this change. It disheartens me to write this as I love the seasons: Cold winters / warm summers with spring and autumn in between. Sadly even these differences are being eroded and the peaks in each season are being flattened and our temperate climate is becoming less temperate as GW increases. 

Mild and wet weather has always been the prevailing winter weather type here though, even 50 years ago. Same goes for summer - we have an oceanic/temperate climate, not a continental one, so mild/average summers are the most common....and the cold winter/warm summer duo is almost unheard of. But hey, that's what makes us obsessed with the weather in this country, the 'what if' factor is huge here and makes the chase all the more fun.

[Sceptical]

Stick down wet and mild for the next 20 UK winters.

You wont be far off the mark.

[JoeShmoe]

Drops into model thread for first time in 3 days

Sees people looking at GEM at 240 as best hope for anything cold

Drops out of model thread for another 3 days

[Freeze]

8 hours ago, Tuxedo said:

 

I’m not saying we won’t continue to experience cold snaps but you are burying your head in the sand if you cannot see the effect of what GW is now having on our winters/climate. Mild, wet Atlantic driven weather is now the common denominator. Our planet is warming up and we are now physically experiencing this effect. It doesn’t mean we will no longer see snow or frosts but it’s becoming very obvious that this trend is diminishing. Any cold blocks are not sustainable when they do occur. You only have to look back 10 to 20 years to see this change. It disheartens me to write this as I love the seasons: Cold winters / warm summers with spring and autumn in between. Sadly even these differences are being eroded and the peaks in each season are being flattened and our temperate climate is becoming less temperate as GW increases. 

Not denying GW, but since when was mild, wet Atlantic weather weather NOT the common denominator? In your last post you said that cold and snowy weather was a thing of the past in the south meaning we won’t see it again, now you’ve changed your mind saying we may see cold snaps, your contradicting yourself 

[Freeze]

On 08/12/2019 at 07:04, Tuxedo said:

The days have gone of severe cold. I am talking about more than 5 days of sub zero temps. All we get now are cold snaps with no longevity. It’s become very apparent that GW is the cause of this as temps rise across the planet and subsequently weather patterns shifting. I use to log on every model output and looking forward to nailing a cold spell. GW has changed all this and we have to accept now that snow and sub zero temps in the south is a thing of the past and thererfore ‘ the hunt for cold ‘ thread only really applies to the north and especially on high ground. I am not referring to this winter but all future winters. The days of blizzards and snow in the south that last for more than 2/3 days are over. Time to find a new winter hobby!

 

[knocker]

We are truly blessed

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

We are truly blessed

I've just trawled the GFS 12Z, searching in vain for 'wedges' and other assorted 'small windows of opportunity', and I must have 'lost it' -- all I can see is Continental Europe swathed in yellow/orange hues, for the foreseeable...?

Maybe I just need to improve my ability at telling the difference between wedges and waffles. Who knows?!

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've just trawled the GFS 12Z, searching in vain for 'wedges' and other assorted 'small windows of opportunity', and I must have 'lost it' -- all I can see is Continental Europe swathed in yellow/orange hues, for the foreseeable...?

Maybe I just need to improve my ability at telling the difference between wedges and waffles. Who knows?!

I did find a 'GEM' but where on earth are these easterlies when you need them

[swfc]

6 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

Drops into model thread for first time in 3 days

Sees people looking at GEM at 240 as best hope for anything cold

Drops out of model thread for another 3 days

well gfs is useless,ukmo is ok depending on what it shows along with ecso yes good move there  pal lol