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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

We seem to be stuck in this westerly flow for  a while now. Cool wet weather 

I'd rather it be mild and sunny 

Roll on spring summer 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Despite these quite frankly shocking charts for cold nearly for the whole of Europe I am doing very well, on to my 6th ice day in a row today. T850 are in positive numbers for the 3rd day now but cold air is trapped in my valley as I have  0 m/s wind what a luck,as the cold oclusion got me nice snow cover on 2nd December. Glad because Christmas markets/shopping between 1st and 15th are for me the best with snow and cold,later it becomes hectick and cant enjoy it as much. Yesterday we visited town nearby called Kosice which has huge steel factory on its outskirts.Emisions from chimneys there produce industrial snow and area has about 4x times the snow cover of rest of the country

 

 

received_591264768094891.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: bath
  • Weather Preferences: Anything under4 deg. In winter and anything over 20deg in the summer!
  • Location: bath

The days have gone of severe cold. I am talking about more than 5 days of sub zero temps. All we get now are cold snaps with no longevity. It’s become very apparent that GW is the cause of this as temps rise across the planet and subsequently weather patterns shifting. I use to log on every model output and looking forward to nailing a cold spell. GW has changed all this and we have to accept now that snow and sub zero temps in the south is a thing of the past and thererfore ‘ the hunt for cold ‘ thread only really applies to the north and especially on high ground. I am not referring to this winter but all future winters. The days of blizzards and snow in the south that last for more than 2/3 days are over. Time to find a new winter hobby!

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
17 minutes ago, Tuxedo said:

The days have gone of severe cold. I am talking about more than 5 days of sub zero temps. All we get now are cold snaps with no longevity. It’s become very apparent that GW is the cause of this as temps rise across the planet and subsequently weather patterns shifting. I use to log on every model output and looking forward to nailing a cold spell. GW has changed all this and we have to accept now that snow and sub zero temps in the south is a thing of the past and thererfore ‘ the hunt for cold ‘ thread only really applies to the north and especially on high ground. I am not referring to this winter but all future winters. The days of blizzards and snow in the south that last for more than 2/3 days are over. Time to find a new winter hobby!

I remember some numpty at the Climate research unit saying something similar at the turn of the millennium. Since then in my South Coast locale we have had the coldest winter for 30 years. The snowiest December since 1962, My weather station has set four new record minima in a record going back 30 years.

In addition the coldest December since records began locally in 1879! The snowiest March since at least 1965. Most air frost's in a month since Jan 1963. Longest continuous snow cover since ............. I could go on. My weather station is a grand total of 45 metres above see level

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

just for illustration,the same low pressure system that will give UK/IE wind and cold rain supposedly according to EC 0Z will dump 40cm snow to my location,the front endge of it actually hrs 120-168

snowdepth_20191208_00_162.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
10 hours ago, Don said:

Oh, I'm not disputing that but it's a case of whether it will be IMBY?!

Having said that if you look at the last occasion of a really deep solar minimum before the space era and that was around 1911-14, there were no outstanding winters in that period. 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Aye, December is going to be mild, winter is over etc etc... 

Screenshot_2019-12-08-09-06-01.thumb.png.1816a0ebead5a947269aafba9e32027a.png

Pure IMBY post of course. 

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
2 hours ago, Tuxedo said:

The days have gone of severe cold. I am talking about more than 5 days of sub zero temps. All we get now are cold snaps with no longevity. It’s become very apparent that GW is the cause of this as temps rise across the planet and subsequently weather patterns shifting. I use to log on every model output and looking forward to nailing a cold spell. GW has changed all this and we have to accept now that snow and sub zero temps in the south is a thing of the past and thererfore ‘ the hunt for cold ‘ thread only really applies to the north and especially on high ground. I am not referring to this winter but all future winters. The days of blizzards and snow in the south that last for more than 2/3 days are over. Time to find a new winter hobby!

You only have to go back not even 2 years to find one of the single most severe cold spells in March with blizzards I even had a max of -2c and my house is about a minutes walk from the seafront 

Edited by Freeze
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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.

2019 is on track to be the third warmest year on record. If that verifys, then the five warmest years on record, since 1850, will have occured within the last five years.

A sense of perspective......

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Posted
  • Location: Merseyside/ West Lancs Border; North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cool & dry, with regular cold, snowy periods.
  • Location: Merseyside/ West Lancs Border; North West England
12 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

We seem to be stuck in this westerly flow for  a while now. Cool wet weather 

I'd rather it be mild and sunny 

Roll on spring summer 

 

I was out on a cycle ride on Friday, and it was mild, grey, windy and eventually it started to rain heavily - all the ingredients of  the modern 'classic' December weather = miserable. The contrast with a week earlier couldn't have been more stark; cold, blue skies, slight breeze....

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

It would be nice to get a decent covering at some point during the winter here. Its daft to say prolonged cold spells aren't possible anymore but its certainly getting more rare.

January 2013 was the last time we had a covering of more than 1cm, 7 years ago next month!

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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

I find it astonishing that October and November promised developing cold to our shores with reflective negative AO and NAO figures and the PV in disarray. It seems as though a virtual switch was pressed on December 1st which almost immediately resulted in PV reformation, AO and NAO turning positive and the daily ensembles to trend increasingly milder.

i looked at the same ensembles last year and its almost identical. Coincidence ?

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

It does seem the weather patterns have changed a bit in the last 5 or 6 years and for this reason winter runs from mid December to mid March.December 2010 was truly exceptional for cold here in Kent and am confident will not be surpassed for cold and snow in my lifetime but since then decembers do seem to have developed a milder theme.On the other side of the coin the first 2 weeks of March have gone more the opposite way and have given quite a few cold snaps/spells with the BFTE only last year proof of that.Just my 2 bobs worth and a bit IMBY pov as I appreciate in Scotland and the hillier parts of the North offer far greater potential for cold and snow from late November to late March.

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
6 hours ago, jules216 said:

Despite these quite frankly shocking charts for cold nearly for the whole of Europe I am doing very well, on to my 6th ice day in a row today. T850 are in positive numbers for the 3rd day now but cold air is trapped in my valley as I have  0 m/s wind what a luck,as the cold oclusion got me nice snow cover on 2nd December. Glad because Christmas markets/shopping between 1st and 15th are for me the best with snow and cold,later it becomes hectick and cant enjoy it as much. Yesterday we visited town nearby called Kosice which has huge steel factory on its outskirts.Emisions from chimneys there produce industrial snow and area has about 4x times the snow cover of rest of the country

 

 

received_591264768094891.jpeg

It's been a crap start to winter in Bratislava. About 1cm of snow on Monday which barely lasted until the next day. There was proper snow on the nearby hills all week but it must be melting now.

A chance of more snow on Thursday at least. I'm more concerned about my trip to Ukraine on the 18th - it's been toasty there recently by their standards.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I’m also a little bit worried for my Christmas trip to Chamonix with these unusual southerlies wafting up into Europe and a rising 850 line. Plenty of time for change of course but having done tio Christmas trips to Poland where it was milder there than here, I thought the mountains would be a fairly safe snowy bet.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
42 minutes ago, Shunter said:

I find it astonishing that October and November promised developing cold to our shores with reflective negative AO and NAO figures and the PV in disarray. It seems as though a virtual switch was pressed on December 1st which almost immediately resulted in PV reformation, AO and NAO turning positive and the daily ensembles to trend increasingly milder.

i looked at the same ensembles last year and its almost identical. Coincidence ?

I touched on this the other day.  It seems that since 2016, the PV in October and November has looked favourable for a cold early winter.  However, like you say, come the end of November, the PV has come to life and the AO/NAO switched to a positive phase!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

I wonder where BFTP (Fred) is?...didn't he call for a coldish December but currently looks like another bad call from him and lets be honest there's been a lot.

It doesn't look like mild all the way with some Pm incursions and there might be some wintryness on the odd day at altitude looking at the latest ecm but nothing untoward. Today not in a mild air mass where I am but thermometer still showing 10.5c here in the south east so on that basis will certainly be milder than average over the next week in the south east.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Nothing to get excited about for now anyway.  The coming week looks average to cool overall. Pretty standard dec weather really imo. At least there is no euro high etc. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
3 hours ago, Shunter said:

I find it astonishing that October and November promised developing cold to our shores with reflective negative AO and NAO figures and the PV in disarray. It seems as though a virtual switch was pressed on December 1st which almost immediately resulted in PV reformation, AO and NAO turning positive and the daily ensembles to trend increasingly milder.

i looked at the same ensembles last year and its almost identical. Coincidence ?

More to do with the extreme cold over Canada pouring out Onto the Atlantic Ocean and    firing up the jet stream,Dec has never been a very cold and snowy month in the UK

No winter month recently has felt like winter,most of us have seen more snow in march than DJF in recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

I wonder where BFTP (Fred) is?...didn't he call for a coldish December but currently looks like another bad call from him and lets be honest there's been a lot.

It doesn't look like mild all the way with some Pm incursions and there might be some wintryness on the odd day at altitude looking at the latest ecm but nothing untoward. Today not in a mild air mass where I am but thermometer still showing 10.5c here in the south east so on that basis will certainly be milder than average over the next week in the south east.

don't wanna know PMSL! bad call, what a surprise

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
9 hours ago, Freeze said:

You only have to go back not even 2 years to find one of the single most severe cold spells in March with blizzards I even had a max of -2c and my house is about a minutes walk from the seafront 

Midday 1st March 2018 it was -4C in my then backyard (Brum).

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
6 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

It's been a crap start to winter in Bratislava. About 1cm of snow on Monday which barely lasted until the next day. There was proper snow on the nearby hills all week but it must be melting now.

A chance of more snow on Thursday at least. I'm more concerned about my trip to Ukraine on the 18th - it's been toasty there recently by their standards.

despite being at modest altitude we had 5th straight ice day and that being below 500m asl,most of surrounding countries have very little snow and here is all frozen over

20191208_125625.jpg

Edited by jules216
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Away from the hills I wouldn't bet against a snow flake not being seen this winter for the majority of the UK. I suspect the atlantic will be too powerful and continue to push all cold weather aside.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
12 minutes ago, DCee said:

Away from the hills I wouldn't bet against a snow flake not being seen this winter for the majority of the UK. I suspect the atlantic will be too powerful and continue to push all cold weather aside.

 

kinda agree with this, told a few people this for my location, only 104m asl, saying it wouldn't surprise me nowadays if at the end of Feb we have seen no snow

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