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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 hours ago, Weather-history said:

4 of the great winters of the 20th century occurred close to solar maximum

True, but that was before climate change kicked in.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No, in a word.

Betting money would be on a +NAO winter and a cold spring.

Its predictable and its rapidly destroying my interest in all things weather.

Yes, I feel your frustration!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No, in a word.

Betting money would be on a +NAO winter and a cold spring.

Its predictable and its rapidly destroying my interest in all things weather.

yes a cold -cold spring generally follows a drab winter season.early days but it has an inevitability about it over the last few years.think I may take up trainspotting,at least its kind of reliable

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
26 minutes ago, swfc said:

yes a cold -cold spring generally follows a drab winter season.early days but it has an inevitability about it over the last few years.think I may take up trainspotting,at least its kind of reliable

Well, a cold spring following a mild winter is better than a mild spring following a mild winter IMHO.  At least with a cold spring you can get some wintry weather, albeit likely to be short lived.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

When people talk about cold springs following mild winters what they really mean is the main "wintry" spell or spells occur  in the spring season. 

Cold springs following mild winters are not that often but if you have a wintry spell or spells during the following spring, it can give the impression it was a cold spring. 

Take spring 2016, it wasn't that cold neither was 2008 nor even 1995. 

I reckon you have go back to 1975 what I would call a mild winter followed by a cold spring. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

When people talk about cold springs following mild winters what they really mean is the main "wintry" spell or spells occur  in the spring season. 

Cold springs following mild winters are not that often but if you have a wintry spell or spells during the following spring, it can give the impression it was a cold spring. 

Take spring 2016, it wasn't that cold neither was 2008 nor even 1995. 

I reckon you have go back to 1975 what I would call a mild winter followed by a cold spring. 

That's quite true.  In fact, I think all those springs mentioned above were warmer than average overall?  The same can also be said for 1989, too.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
2 minutes ago, Don said:

That's quite true.  In fact, I think all those springs mentioned above were warmer than average overall?  The same can also be said for 1989, too.

Yes it was just the April of 1989 that was below average, May was a fantastic month that year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Yes it was just the April of 1989 that was below average, May was a fantastic month that year. 

Yes, I remember May 1989 being hot with an intense thunderstorm on the 24th!  Also, early June that year saw parts of north Kent experience an intense 'soft' hail storm, which resembled a few inches of snow.  If I remember correctly, there was debate between meteorologists as to whether it was actually snow or hail, but hail won the day I believe!

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
2 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I remember May 1989 being hot with an intense thunderstorm on the 24th!  Also, early June that year saw parts of north Kent experience an intense 'soft' hail storm, which resembled a few inches of snow.  If I remember correctly, there was debate between meteorologists as to whether it was actually snow or hail, but hail won the day I believe!

May 1989 was a very interesting month.I worked on a farm where after the drought of 1984 the land had remained boggy for every summer after with the poor summers of 1985-1988.The winter 88/89 was particularly challenging to get onto the land to muckspread and was some of the land was so wet in April 1989 we almost abandoned it.What a month May 1989 was ,very dry and hot giving the start of the long hot summer that was very similar to that 5 years earlier in 1984.The month did however give one day that wasn't so dry,19th May we had the 'Halifax storm' which gave us the British 2 hour rainfall record of 198mm,remarkable!

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
14 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I remember May 1989 being hot with an intense thunderstorm on the 24th!  Also, early June that year saw parts of north Kent experience an intense 'soft' hail storm, which resembled a few inches of snow.  If I remember correctly, there was debate between meteorologists as to whether it was actually snow or hail, but hail won the day I believe!

Yes, I remember that May being quite warm, hot and humid. The first summer I can actually remember as I was 13 at the time. 

Going back to the cold spring subject. Wasn’t spring 1980 a cold one, and that followed on from a mild winter.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
2 hours ago, Don said:

True, but that was before climate change kicked in.

I don’t think we should write cold winters off, because they still will occur from time to time. Even post 1987, we had the cold snowy winter period of 1990-91, some snowy spells in 93-94(although not a cold winter, but still chilly), winter of 96/96, but mostly cold and dry and a very cold spring.

The early 2000s, 2003-05 produced some brief snowy periods, and then we had a run or cold winters between 2008/09 until 2013, while the summers around that period were poor or mediocre.

I believe this winter at some point will provide us with something similar to what happened back in February 2018, or possibly December 2010, March 2013. 

Only time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes, I remember that May being quite warm, hot and humid. The first summer I can actually remember as I was 13 at the time. 

Going back to the cold spring subject. Wasn’t spring 1980 a cold one, and that followed on from a mild winter.

I was 12 during that summer before turning 13 in September!  I think that was the first genuine hot summer I remember, although I do remember the hot month of August 1984.  However, given the fact I clearly remember several cold winters before 1989 goes to show how poor summers were in the 1980's!

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
4 minutes ago, Don said:

I was 12 during that summer before turning 13 in September!  I think that was the first genuine hot summer I remember, although I do remember the hot month of August 1984.  However, given the fact I clearly remember several cold winters before 1989 goes to show how poor summers were in the 1980's!

Yes, and I think that’s how I remember it. I was so used to cold weather all the time prior to 1989, because the summers of 85-88 were mostly poor. Although that being said, I remember brief hot periods in all those poor summer years. July 1985 when band aid was on, think it was hot then, june 1986 during the World Cup, was mostly hot and sunny and the mid August period of 1987.

August 1984 and also 83 were both hot and sunny. We went to the Isle of Wight for both of those summers and I can remember the good weather.

I also remember something else from that period, a TV movie on the BBC called Threads. That scared the hell out of me!

Sorry for going off on a tangent

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
6 minutes ago, Don said:

I was 12 during that summer before turning 13 in September!  I think that was the first genuine hot summer I remember, although I do remember the hot month of August 1984.  However, given the fact I clearly remember several cold winters before 1989 goes to show how poor summers were in the 1980's!

I wouldn't de3scribe the summers of the 80s being 'poor' as a whole,almost the contrary.Yes 1985 to 1988 did give 4 poor summers but not as bad as the stonkers we have endured in recent years ,1980 wasn't great but certainly wasn't poor and I have heard some say 1981 was poor but I remember it as being ok with some great weather in August between the thunder.However the summers of 1983,1984 and 1989 more than made up for it with only 1995 and 2018 better,the latter just marginally so since.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
2 hours ago, swfc said:

yes a cold -cold spring generally follows a drab winter season.early days but it has an inevitability about it over the last few years.think I may take up trainspotting,at least its kind of reliable

But you never know. We could have a situation like 2013 when Winter didn't arrive until mid January & Spring was also cold (coldest for 50 years) We're only in early December. Plenty of time to go. I still think we'll get at least one notable cold spell before March.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
18 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t think we should write cold winters off, because they still will occur from time to time. Even post 1987, we had the cold snowy winter period of 1990-91, some snowy spells in 93-94(although not a cold winter, but still chilly), winter of 96/96, but mostly cold and dry and a very cold spring.

The early 2000s, 2003-05 produced some brief snowy periods, and then we had a run or cold winters between 2008/09 until 2013, while the summers around that period were poor or mediocre.

I believe this winter at some point will provide us with something similar to what happened back in February 2018, or possibly December 2010, March 2013. 

Only time will tell.

Of course not and yes they will still occur from time to time.  It's just that they will become rarer and require stronger background signals to overcome the underlying warming.  However, as you say, milder winters can and do indeed provide snowy periods, too.  Although I believe this winter will largely be mild, that's not to rule out snowy periods. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

I wouldn't de3scribe the summers of the 80s being 'poor' as a whole,almost the contrary.Yes 1985 to 1988 did give 4 poor summers but not as bad as the stonkers we have endured in recent years ,1980 wasn't great but certainly wasn't poor and I have heard some say 1981 was poor but I remember it as being ok with some great weather in August between the thunder.However the summers of 1983,1984 and 1989 more than made up for it with only 1995 and 2018 better,the latter just marginally so since.

I think that's probably more down to my memory as pre-1984 I don't remember summers in detail due to my infancy at the time!  That said, I do remember winter 1981/82 surprisingly clearly but apparently I was obsessed with snow before I could speak, so that's possibly not surprising!

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
19 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

I wouldn't de3scribe the summers of the 80s being 'poor' as a whole,almost the contrary.Yes 1985 to 1988 did give 4 poor summers but not as bad as the stonkers we have endured in recent years ,1980 wasn't great but certainly wasn't poor and I have heard some say 1981 was poor but I remember it as being ok with some great weather in August between the thunder.However the summers of 1983,1984 and 1989 more than made up for it with only 1995 and 2018 better,the latter just marginally so since.

Yes, it could be argued that 1985-88 was the worst period for summer weather, but I would say the early 90s, and most of the 2000s, and early 10s(2003/2006 excluded) were all poor or average type summers.

1990, 95, 1999, 2003, 2006, 2013, 2014 and 2018 are arguably the best summers since post 1989.

I don’t remember much about 1981, apart from the severe storm which brought daytime pitch black darkness to London. 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
13 minutes ago, Don said:

Of course not and yes they will still occur from time to time.  It's just that they will become rarer and require stronger background signals to overcome the underlying warming.  However, as you say, milder winters can and do indeed provide snowy periods, too.  Although I believe this winter will largely be mild, that's not to rule out snowy periods. 

I can guarantee you, that snow will be falling at some stage, but not before mid January. 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
8 minutes ago, Don said:

I think that's probably more down to my memory as pre-1984 I don't remember summers in detail due to my infancy at the time!  That said, I do remember winter 1981/82 surprisingly clearly but apparently I was obsessed with snow before I could speak, so that's possibly not surprising!

Lol funny you say that, because I was more interested in snow as a 4-6 year old. But I would like someone to answer one thing for me. I remember seeing snow on the ground while we lived in a flat near Sloane Square in Chelsea(no we were not posh lol), and we had a view of the courtyard from the top floor. We moved out in November 1980. 

I remember seeing snow in the courtyard, but not sure if it was January 1979, as I probably would have been too young to remember that, so it must be been January 1980. Did it snow in London in the winter if 79/80?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Yes, the summers of 1985-1988 were generally poor although they did have their moments - some fine spells in July 1985 mainly towards the SE, more widely in late June 1986, in patches in early July 1987, in the north in June 1988 and in the east in August 1988.  But none of them were quite up there with the relentlessly dull wet summers of 1912 and 1954.

I think in the UK it has always helped to be interested in a range of weather types, for as the late Philip Eden pointed out in his interview with Netweather back in 2003, those of us who are only interested in snow and thunderstorms will face long periods of boredom and frustration in between, and the warming trend in the climate isn't helping matters in the winter half-year.  There will certainly be plenty of weather of note in the upcoming fortnight in this mobile pattern with frequent polar maritime incursions, even if for many of us it won't raise quite the same levels of excitement.

I have so far seen little to shift my view (as per my long-range forecast) that winter 2019/20 will be relatively mild, albeit not exceptionally so, implying that there will be short-lived cold snaps at times.  February could hold some interest for snow lovers for although I expect high pressure to be centred close to or to the south of the British Isles, there is inevitably more uncertainty when it's two months away, and it wouldn't take much of a shift in the atmospheric dynamics to result in blocking highs being centred further north, bringing cold and potentially snowy spells.

As for winters 1979 and 1980, the winter of 1979/80 was fairly mild with snow events mainly confined to the north, and generally the least snowy of the run of snowy winters from 1978-1987, although London may have had brief snowfalls shortly before Christmas 1979 and/or mid-March 1980.  It is somewhat more likely to have been 1979 which had widespread snow in the south-east especially around New Year's Day and around 14/15 February.

 

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
36 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

 

I also remember something else from that period, a TV movie on the BBC called Threads. That scared the hell out of me!

Sorry for going off on a tangent

It was a 1984 docudrama set in Sheffield.  I watched it then on holiday and it was shocking in its depiction of the after effects of a nuclear explosion on a large city.  No punches were pulled.  Watched it again a year or so ago and it was still shocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
21 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I can guarantee you, that snow will be falling at some stage, but not before mid January. 

Oh, I'm not disputing that but it's a case of whether it will be IMBY?!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
6 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

It was a 1984 docudrama set in Sheffield.  I watched it then on holiday and it was shocking in its depiction of the after effects of a nuclear explosion on a large city.  No punches were pulled.  Watched it again a year or so ago and it was still shocking.

I’ve seen it a few times. I actually watched it in 1985(not 84), as I remember it being during the school summer holidays. They repeated it then, but missed the original 1984 airing, but I do remember it. 

I think what made me remember it more though, was having to watch it again at secondary school in 1991. The memories came flooding back and haven’t left me since. 

It never looked like it was taking place in May though, as people were wearing cold weather clothing and you could see the breath from cast members, which suggests it was cold. Maybe they filmed it in late 1983.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
10 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

It was a 1984 docudrama set in Sheffield.  I watched it then on holiday and it was shocking in its depiction of the after effects of a nuclear explosion on a large city.  No punches were pulled.  Watched it again a year or so ago and it was still shocking.

I think they need to make a new one now for the 2020s, as we seemed to have returned to that 1979-85 period, when nuclear war was a potential threat.

There was a BBC4 doc on just recently which had clips from all those nuclear shows of the time. Very interesting. 

Anyway, back to the weather.

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