Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

True. But, then the same can be said for hanging on the every word of respected posters who keep saying it's going to snow...come what may...?

This is sage advice. Take a balanced view, and look at things with your head, not your heart. You might find it useful!

[Weathizard]

What a vile output for those of us in the south, the absolute worst kind of weather bitter cold feeling but deluges of rain. Seems we always manage to pull the worst possible result from any multitude of outcomes. At least pressure is trending upwards out in FI, that’s the only straw to clutch, hopefully some dry weather at least. Good for Scottish ski resorts I suppose and some transient snow in parts of the north.

Moderators on here make me laugh, they just pick and choose which posts should be moved at absolute random, this post is moved but a post saying ‘look at the models next week it’s going to snow’ is left, remarkable.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Weathizard

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Remarkably mild today, heating hasn't come on and the temp. in my living room is what it should be - 19-20C.

[Freeze]

2 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Remarkably mild today, heating hasn't come on and the temp. in my living room is what it should be - 19-20C.

It is mild but not remarkably so, 11-12c down here but I’d call that an ‘average mild’ winter spell.

[Glacier Point]

22 hours ago, Don said:

I wonder if GP’s thoughts have changed regarding February?

As per the blog entry.. 

Solving the winter conundrum – Centaurea Weather

CENTAUREAWEATHER.COM

---

It’s that time of year again when the energy sector, hedge funds and weather enthusiasts are deluged with long range weather forecasts, the key question – what will the winter hold ? I’ve been given...

December thus far playing out as per the expected cyclonic, troughy theme for NW Europe. Can't state enough that this winter is about an absence of any strong drivers. What we're left with is effectively a vacuum, which we know nature abhors so very low confidence when assessing any winter forecast this year. 

What is undoubtedly evident over the tropics is a strong + Indian Ocean Dipole event. Quite what that equates to for NW Europe is very challenging to assess, although basically it would probably mimic an El Nino event. Not seen enough +ve heights over the Arctic region to have full confidence in this driver although the coming NW flow and jet driving south would be consistent with this.

What about the solar minima I hear some of you yell out ? Not convinced this alone is as big a driver as it might be. That stated, the state of the stratospheric polar vortex does seem to be reflecting an inactive sun phase. The problem here is that the QBO interface isn't quite affirmative as it needs to be for an out and out cold winter signal. 

Put all of that together and I'd hold with my preliminary thoughts on January, whilst having some potential, is unlikely to deliver. To me it has Troughy written all over it, and analogues were notable in their inference that the trough axis would be unfavourable for cold advection to Western Europe.

For February the analogue guidance was more encouraging for the trough axis to pull colder air back west, and this would also be consistent with climatology for +IOD / +ENSO events where February is most favoured for cold outbreaks across NW Europe.

Could be wrong on all of that of course (nature abhors a vacuum and all that), but right now, I wouldn't change those winter thoughts from when they were first authored in October.

Golden trinity for a cold European Winter: Weak to moderate La Nina (with the atmosphere demonstrably coherent with this); low solar (preferably year after minima); east QBO. How many of these are current ? Arguably a la 2009/10, a weak to moderate El Nino would also work but that lack of at least two of these from this year's set up highlights the problem. Possible that the IOD / warm ENSO neutral may just qualify for tropical favourability, and the QBO likely to switch during January also tilts the balance more towards favourable during the latter third of the winter.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Glacier Point

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Glacier Point  Hi Stewart, I always appreciate seeing your posts with all the in depth info that goes into them. Just a few questions, do you see / think there will be a chance of a split in the PV this winter or just further episodes of warming / displacement like what is currently happening / upcoming and also do you think a more north south split is possible ie colder / snowfall chances in the north / possible battleground snowfalls (similar to @Roger J Smith 's preliminary winter thoughts). 

[Glacier Point]

Displacement K=1 type was most favoured by the analogue set, and would also be consistent with a mimicked +ENSO event.

Upcoming 2-3 week period might deviate away from that enough to generate wave 2 pressure on the vortex.

February would most favour a wave 2 split, probably Alaska to Siberian sectors.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

53 minutes ago, Freeze said:

It is mild but not remarkably so, 11-12c down here but I’d call that an ‘average mild’ winter spell.

I live on Merseyside - NW England.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

As per the blog entry.. 

Solving the winter conundrum – Centaurea Weather

CENTAUREAWEATHER.COM

---

 

Many thanks for the reply, Stewart.

[mb018538]

5 hours ago, Freeze said:

It is mild but not remarkably so, 11-12c down here but I’d call that an ‘average mild’ winter spell.

It got up to 14c in Exeter and London today...average max at this time of year is 8c. I’d say 6c above normal is way above average!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Zonality all the way on models, normal for the modern winta, just hope we can have as many dry days as possible and even sunny at times, as all runs tonight show virtually no snow for low levels south

[Don]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Zonality all the way on models, normal for the modern winta, just hope we can have as many dry days as possible and even sunny at times, as all runs tonight show virtually no snow for low levels south

Even the sleeping sun cannot help us at the moment!

[Freeze]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It got up to 14c in Exeter and London today...average max at this time of year is 8c. I’d say 6c above normal is way above average!

It is way above average, however I wouldn’t call it remarkable as it happens every winter, 6c above average in June would be about 26c and that’s hardly remarkable is it? December is after all the mildest winter month 

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

As per the blog entry.. 

Solving the winter conundrum – Centaurea Weather

CENTAUREAWEATHER.COM

---

It’s that time of year again when the energy sector, hedge funds and weather enthusiasts are deluged with long range weather forecasts, the key question – what will the winter hold ? I’ve been given...

December thus far playing out as per the expected cyclonic, troughy theme for NW Europe. Can't state enough that this winter is about an absence of any strong drivers. What we're left with is effectively a vacuum, which we know nature abhors so very low confidence when assessing any winter forecast this year. 

What is undoubtedly evident over the tropics is a strong + Indian Ocean Dipole event. Quite what that equates to for NW Europe is very challenging to assess, although basically it would probably mimic an El Nino event. Not seen enough +ve heights over the Arctic region to have full confidence in this driver although the coming NW flow and jet driving south would be consistent with this.

What about the solar minima I hear some of you yell out ? Not convinced this alone is as big a driver as it might be. That stated, the state of the stratospheric polar vortex does seem to be reflecting an inactive sun phase. The problem here is that the QBO interface isn't quite affirmative as it needs to be for an out and out cold winter signal. 

Put all of that together and I'd hold with my preliminary thoughts on January, whilst having some potential, is unlikely to deliver. To me it has Troughy written all over it, and analogues were notable in their inference that the trough axis would be unfavourable for cold advection to Western Europe.

For February the analogue guidance was more encouraging for the trough axis to pull colder air back west, and this would also be consistent with climatology for +IOD / +ENSO events where February is most favoured for cold outbreaks across NW Europe.

Could be wrong on all of that of course (nature abhors a vacuum and all that), but right now, I wouldn't change those winter thoughts from when they were first authored in October.

Golden trinity for a cold European Winter: Weak to moderate La Nina (with the atmosphere demonstrably coherent with this); low solar (preferably year after minima); east QBO. How many of these are current ? Arguably a la 2009/10, a weak to moderate El Nino would also work but that lack of at least two of these from this year's set up highlights the problem. Possible that the IOD / warm ENSO neutral may just qualify for tropical favourability, and the QBO likely to switch during January also tilts the balance more towards favourable during the latter third of the winter.

Always good to read your musings - would be interested to note last time we had a weak to moderate la nina, low solar and east qbo, can't be many years that featured all three. 

I agree that there are no strong drivers so it seems this year, but one feature that remains omni-present is for the jet to be deflected slightly further south than normal and has a meridional tilt to it - which if continues through winter will always expose the UK to some colder air from the north - perhaps nothing sustained, but not a mild fest such as 13/14 or 15/16.

Next winter could see at least two of the factors quoted, solar year after minima and might still be holding on to an east QBO or at least only crawling out of one - perhaps a weak-moderate la nina might surface as well.. 

[Catacol]

8 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

 

Golden trinity for a cold European Winter: Weak to moderate La Nina (with the atmosphere demonstrably coherent with this); low solar (preferably year after minima); east QBO. 

Daft to talk so far ahead, but I believe all 3 will be in place for 2020/21. +IOD a precursor to a switch to Nina next year, and QBO/solar variability should be a given....

Back to this year and we could do with the QBO transitioning as fast as possible, and that dipole fading by New Year. MJO transition plus possible vortex disruption end of Jan certainly suggests Feb as the peak opportunity this year. Latter half of Jan perhaps gets in on the act if luck runs our way....and after last year we are owed some.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Cold rain and wind is next week's forecast for us up here in Old South Yorkshire. Worse kind of weather for me. Rather have it blazing hot with clear sky's in summer or cold and heavy snow in winter.anything in the middle seems pointless lol. Night all

[Sir Mim]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Zonality all the way on models, normal for the modern winta, just hope we can have as many dry days as possible and even sunny at times, as all runs tonight show virtually no snow for low levels south

 

I said this December would be a disaster for cold lovers didn't I, and I see no reason to think Jan or Feb will be much better.

 

British "winters" are a waste of time.

[SLEETY]

6 hours ago, Mr TOAD said:

 

I said this December would be a disaster for cold lovers didn't I, and I see no reason to think Jan or Feb will be much better.

 

British "winters" are a waste of time.

Indeed they are away from the Highlands.

And it's going to get rarer with the world warming up.

As I mentioned before for for fans of cold and snowy weather,your be better of booking a holiday somewhere in Canada to guarantee yourself a couple of weeks of proper winter weather with deep snow and go and enjoy it with your kids.

What's the point of chasing  it anymore,for weeks here in the UK ,and when it does arrive,it very rarely lasts more than a few days, accept for the occasional year

British winter suck for deep powdery snow,should stop the chase ,but I still do every winter lol

 

[Weather-history]

12 hours ago, Don said:

Even the sleeping sun cannot help us at the moment!

4 of the great winters of the 20th century occurred close to solar maximum

Edited December 7, 2019 by Weather-history

[mb018538]

10 hours ago, Freeze said:

It is way above average, however I wouldn’t call it remarkable as it happens every winter, 6c above average in June would be about 26c and that’s hardly remarkable is it? December is after all the mildest winter month 

It’s not as simple as just doing that though. Maximum temperatures in June can get up to the mid 30s, 16c above normal. There’s no way we would see 16c above normal (24c) in the UK in December (highest on record is 18c). 

In much the same way that the UK has seen -28c minima in winter, you wouldn’t see a night time minimum temperature of say -10c in the middle of summer.

Edited December 7, 2019 by mb018538

[Weather-history]

12 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Zonality all the way on models, normal for the modern winta, just hope we can have as many dry days as possible and even sunny at times, as all runs tonight show virtually no snow for low levels south

Like a lot of the winters of the 1990s......

There is only really one winter in the 1990s that really lacked zonality and that was 1995-96, most of the other winters had at least one notable zonal spell. Probably 1991-92 you could add as well because of its anticyclonicity

Feb 1990

Christmas-90-New Year 1991

Feb 1992

January 1993

January 1994

February 1995

 

February 1997

Christmas 97- early mid January 1998

December 1998

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, but where I live, miles more snowy spells too, compared to post 2000, would settle for another 91-92, and also days like today, out of wind it feels like Spring has sprung while it's sunnyish

[Freeze]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It’s not as simple as just doing that though. Maximum temperatures in June can get up to the mid 30s, 16c above normal. There’s no way we would see 16c above normal (24c) in the UK in December (highest on record is 18c). 

In much the same way that the UK has seen -28c minima in winter, you wouldn’t see a night time minimum temperature of say -10c in the middle of summer.

I see what you mean, feels milder today here as the wind has dropped right down actually fairly pleasant in sunny spells 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Can anyone be bothered?!!!!

#fatigue

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Can anyone be bothered?!!!!

#fatigue

No, in a word.

Betting money would be on a +NAO winter and a cold spring.

Its predictable and its rapidly destroying my interest in all things weather.