Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Beet]

Is it me, or does this supposed period of settled 'chilly' weather we're getting right now producing relatively average maximum temps?

[Don]

5 hours ago, Wynter said:

It happens every time. You would think people would learn to take charts over 144hrs with a massive pinch of salt. But every time people get emotionally invested in every run up to +300hrs!

We may yet still get some winteryness next week, but as of yet the charts haven't quite nailed down the extent. Leave the emotion out of it until you see the snow falling from the sky.

It happens 9 times out of 10.  2009/2010 it ain’t!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Beet said:

Is it me, or does this supposed period of settled 'chilly' weather we're getting right now producing relatively average maximum temps?

You might just be on to something there, Mr. Beet...It's a stonkingly sunny 7.9C here, just now!

[Don]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

You might just be on to something there, Mr. Beet...It's a stonkingly sunny 7.9C here, just now!

Average temps in winter is the ‘new’ cold.

[StretfordEnd1996]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

Average temps in winter is the ‘new’ cold.

For me cold temperatures in Winter is anything up to a max of 5'C in the daytime

Average for my location is 7'C

Anything over that I deem as mild

CET wise it's been a cold cold start to the season

[Paul]

16 hours ago, SLEETY said:

But a Southerly Jetstream for nearly the last two months of Autumn ,the early cold weather over Scandinavia in the Autumn,and the last two months of Autumn below the CET,none of the LRf have factored that into their predictions,which is odd as it's so unusual.

And already the forecasts of December being above the CET average looks bust already.

1. It's the 4th of the month, so you're probably a tad early to be declaring anything a bust. 

2. If you want to go down the route of expecting the weather in Autumn to continue into Winter, you probably need to bear in mind where most of our weather has come from during the last few months - the Atlantic.

[Yarmy]

It's not all about the Atlantic. I'm keeping an eye on the sharpened Alaskan ridge in this afternoon's runs.

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Today is the 6th day in a row with BELOW average temps, CET zone.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Beet said:

Is it me, or does this supposed period of settled 'chilly' weather we're getting right now producing relatively average maximum temps?

Other than Monday, temperatures haven't been that much below average here during the day, but nights have been a bit chillier than usual.

These opening days of December have been lovely. A beautiful crisp feel, things have finally dried out a bit and the sun makes all the difference. Shame it's about to go the way of the pear again. I'd happily take a cold anticyclone for another week if it means sunshine, frost and fog.

[CheesepuffScott]

Although this is not much different from 'average' for the time of year, it's much better than what I am used to, at least for December, slate grey skies, drizzly with temps around 12°C...

Bright, sunny days, clear nights with overnight frost / fog. I could live with this for the rest of the month.

[sausage]

i find it incredible how difficult snow is in this country. even mr murr has gone quiet. can someone try explain to me please how in the olden fays/era we use to get copious amounts of snow, even the thames freezing. whats changed so dramatically????? there was still the atlantic, jrt stream and azores high!!???

climate change cant have changed all this that much, your talking a couple of degrees...

[Penicuikblizzard]

Just now, sausage said:

i find it incredible how difficult snow is in this country. even mr murr has gone quiet. can someone try explain to me please how in the olden fays/era we use to get copious amounts of snow, even the thames freezing. whats changed so dramatically????? there was still the atlantic, jrt stream and azores high!!???

climate change cant have changed all this that much, your talking a couple of degrees...

Global Warning has to be a major factor! Also climate cycles 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, sausage said:

i find it incredible how difficult snow is in this country. even mr murr has gone quiet. can someone try explain to me please how in the olden fays/era we use to get copious amounts of snow, even the thames freezing. whats changed so dramatically????? there was still the atlantic, jrt stream and azores high!!???

climate change cant have changed all this that much, your talking a couple of degrees...

Read up on why a couple of degrees warming, globally, is significant!

[Froze were the Days]

Following the GFS isn't good for the nerves with 4 runs a day with usually big variations between some runs (usually the 0z and 18z) and no doubt some bringing eye opening runs usually after day 7 and into FI if cold and snow is what your after, but if this is your thing getting your hopes up and then usually being dashed keep watching.

I'm being a lot lower key this winter with the background signals (other than low solar input) and global models forecasting a +NAO and in general keeping out of the MOD thread, Since summer all I've been following is the ECM and been wondering what the commotion has been about the last few days but even this model has been sniffing at something more blocky and colder at day 8 onwards (but gone off it this morning on the 0z). There lies the problem it is at that elusive range which even with the ECM I have learnt is a long long way away in meteorological terms and believe me just following the euro model has more often than not 'wobbled' at that range if something out of the ordinary is what you're after.

Maybe just follow one model, I advise UKMO or ECM and up to the more reliable time range of 7 days...we have just too much choice and long range to gaze at in hope in the internet era.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[feb1991blizzard]

Worst start to a model watching season since i have been on here, if you include the LRF's in it, far too many nails already in the coffin at such an early stage this year.

[DAVID SNOW]

23 minutes ago, LRD said:

Read up on why a couple of degrees warming, globally, is significant!

When was snow in southern England in early December ever the norm?

[LRD]

8 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

When was snow in southern England in early December ever the norm?

That wasn't my point 

Edited December 4, 2019 by LRD

[I remember Atlantic 252]

38 minutes ago, sausage said:

i find it incredible how difficult snow is in this country. even mr murr has gone quiet. can someone try explain to me please how in the olden fays/era we use to get copious amounts of snow, even the thames freezing. whats changed so dramatically????? there was still the atlantic, jrt stream and azores high!!???

climate change cant have changed all this that much, your talking a couple of degrees...

huge difference when it comes to snow, even warming up by 0.5 degree will mean rain now, where as old days would be snow

not sure why Atlantic air though is more frequent now in the large teapot than it used to be

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

huge difference when it comes to snow, even warming up by 0.5 degree will mean rain now, where as old days would be snow

not sure why Atlantic air though is more frequent now in the large teapot than it used to be

I think the UK has slowly been drifting south over the years, back in the old days it was probably near Greenland.

[MidnightSnow]

23 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

 

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Worst start to a model watching season since i have been on here, if you include the LRF's in it, far too many nails already in the coffin at such an early stage this year.

The difference 24 hours can make lol.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, MidnightSnow said:

 

The difference 24 hours can make lol.

Yes - very poor numerical prediction model performance.

[Downburst]

25 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

huge difference when it comes to snow, even warming up by 0.5 degree will mean rain now, where as old days would be snow

not sure why Atlantic air though is more frequent now in the large teapot than it used to be

And we are talking about global warming in degrees Celsius changes in the average planet wide yearly mean temp. They’d do better to allow us all understand if the gave a % change, e.g. 5% or 10% etc. Saying to folks 0.5 c means next to nothing as people think about max temps on a given day, not in averages of day night over a year.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 More chance of @knocker dressing as Santa Claus and snowboarding down Cairngorm mountain.

Sidney is ready   

[knocker]

I just inadvertently popped into the chasing cold thread and I would just like to say both Sidney and I feel their pain

[snow fest]

This forum cracks me up. All year round you get great people spending their time doing informative posts on what may or may not happen depending on the models. I think anyone who reads this thread know exactly who they all are. Want makes me laugh is as soon things swing away from what ever result has been ‘proposed’, this place fills with all the ‘I Told You So Crew’

I rarely ever see any contribution from any of these people.

Please keep up the good work to everyone who informs and teaches me daily!!!