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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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The 1st day of winter has started on a seasonal note with a widespread frost here in the north east just like the final day of Autumn 

Anyway. As the title says Moans, Ramp & Chat about winter, but please avoid personal digs at one another 

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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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The Weather Outlooks winter forecast

Winter 2019 - 20: Milder and wetter than average.

 

Quote

 

Forecast overview

  • The forecast headline is for a milder than average winter. There is considered to be a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall. Away from high ground in the north, snow is most likely during the second half of January and the middle of February.

Temperature

  • Above the 30 year average taken over the three month period as a whole.

Precipitation

  • Rainfall levels are forecast to be slightly above average.

 

You can read the full forecast here - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

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First day of winter NE Scotland. Local hills around 1200 feet asl. Sub zero temperatures and significant windchill at the summits.

The temperature at 12.30pm when I returned to the car was -3C.

A decent start to winter!

 

 

 

20191201_103654.jpg

Edited by Sceptical
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A remarkable number of frosts at Prestwick Airport so far for our coastal location. This morning was the 16th frost. This beats the weatheronline.co.uk record going back to 1996 (2nd place was 2010 at 12 frosts before 1 December). I suspect 1993 may have beaten it.

Edited by Duncan McAlister
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3 hours ago, Mr TOAD said:

Well, ain't that a surprise...  ?

 

At least Darren Bett will be happy.

I still like the best description I have seen of this up and coming winter from Gavin Partridge today on his winter forecast, a "SEE-SAW" winter. A great name that really covers the up and coming season, some cold, interspersed with some mild and then some cold and on and on we go..

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5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

 

Maybe but that doesn't mean their winter forecast will be wrong, too.  Having followed their forecasts for nearly 20 years I don't think they have a bad reputation, so that forecast is disappointing.

Although it's obviously very early days I do wonder if I will see any settling snow IMBY this winter.

Edited by Don
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Radar shows there was a very fine band of snow showing from Preston to the Yorkshire Dales this morning, plus a few little bits elsewhere across the North. Our accumulated frost over this weekend in the shadows looks thick enough to be snow, anyway. It's been below freezing more than above it this weekend. The thaw in sunny areas still managed to turn into a mudfest when we took the kids out to Lotherton Hall yesterday afternoon, though, so frozen ground is desirable at the moment.

Edited by Aleman
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18 hours ago, Duncan McAlister said:

A remarkable number of frosts at Prestwick Airport so far for our coastal location. This morning was the 16th frost. This beats the weatheronline.co.uk record going back to 1996 (2nd place was 2010 at 12 frosts before 1 December). I suspect 1993 may have beaten it.

If you look on the mets historic station data,your nearest is Paisley which goes back to 1959 gives an idea for comparison.

It lists 2010 with 10 air frosts by end of November

  1993 has 19 [6 in October]

 1985 17 [all in November]

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2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Thinking back to 10 years ago, I wonder if it was about this time that we start to notice something maybe afoot midmonth?

I wasn't on here then, but the Strat thread showed mounting optimism from November onwards.

 

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22 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The Weather Outlooks winter forecast

Winter 2019 - 20: Milder and wetter than average.

 

You can read the full forecast here - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

 

Rubbish forecast,the signs are for a colder than average winter,not mild.

Dont forget the guy that runs that website is just the same as us  lot here,a weather enthusiast,he has no weather training background  has never been involved in the METO or anything,lol

Edited by SLEETY
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7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 

Rubbish forecast,the signs are for a colder than average winter,not mild.

Dont forget the guy that runs that website is just the same as us  lot here,a weather enthusiast,he has no weather training background  has never been involved in the METO or anything,lol

Have to admit although I have contributed to that site for years, I have never understood why the media so often quote him if a weather event is about to or is happening.

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13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Have to admit although I have contributed to that site for years, I have never understood why the media so often quote him if a weather event is about to or is happening.

He probably contacts them I guess first,and they probably think he is professional weather forecaster lol

 

 

 

 

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Anyway can every member do their forecast for a laugh,then we can see who got it most correct at the end of the Winter!

 

December.A cold start then turning less cold  with winds turning Westerly and becoming windy again and wet.Most snow will be on the higher mountains in Scotland.

Much colder again mid-month,with Northerly Winds,then,a slight milder period,before very cold weather arrives from the NE just after Xmas

Rainfall above average

Temps below average 1.9c CET

January.

A bitterly cold start with snow in many places.

Then becoming less cold but dryer as high pressure sits over U.k. after the first week.

The High then slips SE and we get a spell of very mild  SW winds for the middle of the month,with temps above average,but very wet in W scotland.

 

Winds turn more westerly and a Zonal flow takes control last month with plenty of wind and rain.

Rainfall above average 

Temps above average 5.2 c

February  The Zonal weather continues for the first few days,then much colder Northerly winds develop ,which turn to the East as the 2 nd week begins.

The next two weeks are dominated by easterly winds with heavy snow in places and very cold weather,before the weather becomes dryer and less cold but still frosts around.

Rainfall below average.

Temps  well below average 0.3 c

 

Edited by SLEETY
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