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DiagonalRedLine

The Hunt For Cold Model Thread - Should It Return?

Would you like to see a ‘Hunt For Cold’ Model thread return?  

115 members have voted

  1. 1. Would you like to see a ‘Hunt For Cold’ Model thread return?

    • No way man, it’s fine as it is
    • No. But yes to in depth technical model thread
    • No. But yes to in depth technical model thread and short range model thread
    • Yes
    • Yes + general model thread
    • Yes + general model thread + short range model thread
    • Yes + general model thread + in depth technical model thread
    • Yes + general model thread + in depth technical model thread + short range model thread
    • How about a model moans, banter and ramps thread?
    • Other (feel free to specify)


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Just curious whether you’re happy with the way we’re running the model threads, or whether the likes of the hunt for cold Model thread should come back.

For those who aren’t aware, last Winter we ran a model thread that solely focused on the cold weather in the models. A separate model thread ran along-side it focusing more generally on the models with a more in depth analysis on the charts. A slower, more laid back, thread, you could say. We felt having a separate Model Output thread focusing on chilly conditions was a good way to de-clutter the main Model thread and allow people the space to get as excited as possible about cold or snowy weather. (We appreciate, though, that not everyone is after the cold and a few may even like a hunt for mild weather Model thread).

Would you like to see a cold chart hunting thread return, and are there any other model threads you’d like to see? (e.g: an in-depth technical model thread, a short-range model thread? etc)

Edit: As an example, an in depth technical model thread could be a thread more focused on the deeper and scientific aspects of the models. Such as the teleconnections, the MJO, sea surface conditions, events high up in the atmosphere (though I appreciate we have a Stratosphere and Vortex watch thread already). And maybe even things such as the EPS ensemble system.

And as for the short range model thread, a topic dedicated to focusing on the 0 to 5 day range of the models. Maybe even up to 7 days. 

Although we haven’t really discussed it, be interested in people’s opinion about these things. It could affect how we setup the Model threads during the Winter. We want it to be a system that works efficiently for numerous people. 🙂

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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I would like to see the in depth model thread  return as the more in depth posts tend to get lost in among the panicky winters over type posts and the general run to run hype / doom and gloom posts. 😀

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Yes to the winter thread at least then I won't get shot down for chasing 384 hr snowmageddon charts and I can till my hearts content with my fellow snowfanatics. 

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I think a Hunt for cold thread is a good idea...

I think if there's a Hunt for mild  thread

They'd only be Darren Betts that would post on it....

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2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I think a Hunt for cold thread is a good idea...

I think if there's a Hunt for mild  thread

They'd only be Darren Betts that would post on it....

it would make the regular model thread redundant, with only 4 posters in it, K, SS, Ed Stone and Jon Snow

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11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I would like to see the in depth model thread  return as the more in depth posts tend to get lost in among the panicky winters over type posts and the general run to run hype / doom and gloom posts. 😀

I think there is definitely a need for the cold hunt thread but the people who used the in depth thread seem to have disappeared. Perhaps some of the present posters will appreciate a less frantic paced platform for their thoughts to be expanded on an not get lost in the melee.

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It might help if it is clarified as to what precisely is meant by 'an in depth thread' Personally, and I'm rather fed up talking about this, I think any thread that allows for a rational interpretation of the models without any preconceived ideas would be a bonus alongside any chasing thread. The idea of chasing cold automatically results in 'lets jump to day 10 to 15 and work back', which is fine if the downgrade/upgrade routine floats your boat

But a hunt the cold thread is a necessity because that's what the vast majority want apparently. And as I have been told quite often, if you are not happy about this you simply don't have to post

But just to add the separate thread has been tried before and it doesn't work because so few were interested in posting in it

Edited by knocker

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I have always wanted to see how a short range model thread would work. Up to a max of 144. However, it would probably be dead, much like the model thread was last winter.

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What tends to happen when a cold spell is likely and especially when under one is everyone retreats the regional threads, and the cold model thread gets lost. It only comes into its own just when a cold spell creeps into the reliable.. burns brightly very quickly and then disappears. 

Edited by damianslaw

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

It might help if it is clarified as to what precisely is meant by 'an in depth thread'

Good point. Basically a thread I guess that focuses more on the deeper and/or scientific aspects of the models. Things like the teleconnections, the MJO, sea and ice conditions, mountain torques and events high up in the atmosphere like the Strat. (I appreciate, however, we already have a Stratosphere and Vortex watch thread. But some of that could be included in a technical in depth model thread as longs as there’s a fair amount of non-stratospheric model chat included in the post too). 

Should a cold hunt model thread go ahead, probably just find that the general model thread would be sufficient enough for some technical model chat.

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every thread is pretty much a hunt for cold thread in Autumn and Winter..so why add another

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3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

every thread is pretty much a hunt for cold thread in Autumn and Winter..so why add another

Nail on the head.

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I would tend to leave as is.  I think separating the threads last year resulted in some great posts not getting seen by many.  Personally speaking, as somewhat of a 'cold ramper', posters such as Knocker bring some much needed levity to proceedings.  I would leave alone and just direct peeps to the Ramp and Moans thread if too off topic.

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Most will end up posting where the majority are reading so I think one thread is sufficient. I do hate the way the cold bias is rampant on the model thread at times. Anyone trying to post some realistic thoughts is almost mugged if they don't say cold! In my view rather than too many posting I think some of the pro's have left because of the cold bias that exists. You need only look at the last 7 days to see this..A bog standard frosty high being ramped up beyond realistic forecasts 

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I personally think it's a good idea so people chasing cold can post lala charts and not get shot down. Also myself who is less knowledgeable. I've had posts removed or not answered I feel because I've nowhere near as much knowledge as some.

I also dont like to clog the main thread up.

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1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

every thread is pretty much a hunt for cold thread in Autumn and Winter..so why add another

Precisely to try and concentrate the snow hunters into one place and allow others room to breathe.

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1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

Most will end up posting where the majority are reading so I think one thread is sufficient. I do hate the way the cold bias is rampant on the model thread at times. Anyone trying to post some realistic thoughts is almost mugged if they don't say cold! In my view rather than too many posting I think some of the pro's have left because of the cold bias that exists. You need only look at the last 7 days to see this..A bog standard frosty high being ramped up beyond realistic forecasts 

True to an extent vv "pros" - but interestingly the forum a number of them have migrated to is also now (in my opinion) becoming dominated by a good number of cold hunting type posts in between the technical and analog bursts....so let's not be too quick to knock the population here on NW. I just think in winter the lure of snow is overpowering for many and so accepting this is stage one, but trying to do something to concentrate the snow chat into a single place in order to declutter other areas is important too as stage two.

Stage Three is then to be brutal in the moderation of the model thread. Anything at all in there with an over hyped snow/cold focus should be deleted instantly. Draw a red line - and hold that line. Let the mayhem occur within the hunt for cold. People will soon learn.

And do it quickly - because I respect those like @knocker who tire of a one sided approach from mid October onwards in the model thread. We really should have the hunt for cold thread up and running from mid November latest.

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11 hours ago, Catacol said:

True to an extent vv "pros" - but interestingly the forum a number of them have migrated to is also now (in my opinion) becoming dominated by a good number of cold hunting type posts in between the technical and analog bursts....so let's not be too quick to knock the population here on NW. I just think in winter the lure of snow is overpowering for many and so accepting this is stage one, but trying to do something to concentrate the snow chat into a single place in order to declutter other areas is important too as stage two.

Stage Three is then to be brutal in the moderation of the model thread. Anything at all in there with an over hyped snow/cold focus should be deleted instantly. Draw a red line - and hold that line. Let the mayhem occur within the hunt for cold. People will soon learn.

And do it quickly - because I respect those like @knocker who tire of a one sided approach from mid October onwards in the model thread. We really should have the hunt for cold thread up and running from mid November latest.

That’s sound fair what you say. Being strict with the moderation of the model thread would help keep it running smooth.

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I am actually abstaining from this vote even though it could be argued it affects me more than 99% of other posters and i will give my reason. It is a small minority who are not happy with the way it is now, that is not to say they are not valued, they are, in fact more than most, but as Knocker said above, when you split it they are then unhappy that most are not viewing their posts so really it isn't going to have any effect either way.

EDIT : and in any case i will not just continue ramping an Easterly when it clearly has blown up so then i go from being called the biggest cold ramping hyperbolic Daily Express type poster on here to being called a troll party pooper anyway so it still won't solve the bickering problem it will just shift it to another part of the forum.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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A hunt for cold thread usually results in everyone using the cold hunt thread so those who post in the other thread are getting limited views on their content, which by the looks of it all takes some time to post so they should get some recognition for it. 
 

While I enjoy hunting for cold I also enjoy seeing those like @knocker posting his view of the next few days as it keeps the thread grounded and that there is weather going on outside the window.  Otherwise it does just turns into posting a CFS chart 500 hours out or rampant moaning.

Also a differing of views and opinions is something that is always good to have.  

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It wouldn't be an issue if folk just practised a bit of self-moderation. Ask yourself, does anyone really need to read "Eyes down for the 12z!!!!" every other post?

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The hunt for cold thread last year became a cold ramping echo chamber full of disappointment, so no. I'd rather read several balanced viewpoints in 1 place. And after all these discussions on the forum I found one real sure indicator for a real prolonged cold spell coming: knocker disappearing from the mod thread 

Edited by ArHu3

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