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Paul

Model output discussion - late November

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Going purely on the evening runs you would have to say this mornings gfs run was on to something and sniffed out a weaker Greenland high before the others

Of course it might still be proven wrong but as I said earlier when the big 3 models disagree the halfway house often wins out. 

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High pressure located over or very near to the UK in early December is quite a common feature over the years. Therefore I am expecting the models to be somewhere near the mark in the 8 - 10 day timeframe. 

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44 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

will be different tomorrow, this is too good, both models have high pressure to start the most unsettled month

gfs-0-234.png?12ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

At that range it is very possible for the general pattern to be modelled a few hundred miles off target. Move that high 250 miles or so north or north west and it’s different story. When we are such small island the exact position of high pressures in winter is crucial.  Even if this does end up as a toppler At least it’s a toppler In the very first days of winter rather than the last week of feb.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Wrong chart cheers Ali . 

Edited by ICE COLD

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As there's a lot of interest for around day 10 If we put the Ecmwf, Gem and Gfs output for day 10 together this is what's shown.. 👇

2087307344_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(17).thumb.jpg.182256e62720badb8fcec65ce7f64f7b.jpg

High pressure sat to the west of the UK with a rather slack Northerly flow this not particularly cold as the origins are at that time from the north Atlantic.. This is just a snapshot not to be taken as gospel. 👍

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The EC mean at day 9 looks ok . 

A1D42DBA-3247-44D6-B8C1-3C7587C29906.png

That’s the last run , not looking too good now!! 

52C8D64D-A03A-4E18-90E7-A9DD5541BC87.png

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There are some differences between the ext GEFS (posted earlier) and EPS that readily be seen but mainly the handling of the subtropical zones and impact on the vortex and trough(s), otherwise the spiel not dissimilar

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5633600.thumb.png.48447e83d73abf262f7241aef87f9b44.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5633600.thumb.png.086048ad99eb2a602ddc3109a656bc5e.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5633600.thumb.png.5f02939a3dd8d40e87b654dc0d4d0fbd.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5633600.thumb.png.e2aaf34f91feb3ed5e6737dfb0e37b7d.png

Edited by knocker

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B408FB0A-B3C2-4186-B266-CBF23E482DF0.thumb.gif.0dd254d0fb7678849d90dc31bc0bddea.gif

Yikes. Some massive hikes in the AO there...runs like the GFS 12z op probably fit that profile at the end. Very low polar heights and strong PV on display.

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

B408FB0A-B3C2-4186-B266-CBF23E482DF0.thumb.gif.0dd254d0fb7678849d90dc31bc0bddea.gif

Yikes. Some massive hikes in the AO there...runs like the GFS 12z op probably fit that profile at the end. Very low polar heights and strong PV on display.

because the nao is negative lower heights go over the top of the pole dropping down into scandinavia eastern europe and to be honest the ao is only likely to be positive for awhile whilst vortex is squeezed over the siberian side of the arctic.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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Hmmmmmm, the day meto go colder, the 12z suite goes the other way!!

TBH think it might be wise to hold council until the models get to grips with any Atlantic height rises, although the smart money is probably a collapsing high at this juncture, it could change of course..

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

I remember fondly following the meto updates last year with there cold snow updates sadly they never came.🙄

it would suggest there going for there own model and ecm so maybe a bit different this time.

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48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmmm, the day meto go colder, the 12z suite goes the other way!!

As per usual.....

Suspect there will be more twists and turns.

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Far better Icon 18z, half decent Icelandic high there looking more robust, nice deep cold pool to our NE ready to move in.:oldrolleyes:

iconeu-0-120.png

iconeu-1-120.png

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NOAA this evening in the same ball park as the ext ens above

814day_03.thumb.gif.6dff08249f6a1a5e98ddd30b9def09b2.gif

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

B408FB0A-B3C2-4186-B266-CBF23E482DF0.thumb.gif.0dd254d0fb7678849d90dc31bc0bddea.gif

Yikes. Some massive hikes in the AO there...runs like the GFS 12z op probably fit that profile at the end. Very low polar heights and strong PV on display.

Yes but quite a few keep it negative too.

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15 minutes ago, knocker said:

NOAA this evening in the same ball park as the ext ens above

814day_03.thumb.gif.6dff08249f6a1a5e98ddd30b9def09b2.gif

That low primed to destroy any hopes of a decent mid Atlantic ridge by the looks..

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That low primed to destroy any hopes of a decent mid Atlantic ridge by the looks..

What low?

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Imo there’s far to much been put into every single run as it stands it’s all looking like it’s going to turn colder, but at this range we don’t really no to much other than signals. Every run will and does chop and change and we shouldn’t expect anything else tbh

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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What low?

The one about to steam across the Atlantic?

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6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The propensity over the past few weeks has been for trough disruption, elongation, splintering, and shallowness - with the block to the north, the trough won't have any easy time to quickly develop into such a feature - take the model output for this time next week with huge margin for error.. they have continuously had to correct themselves once low pressure systems have appeared in the nearer term i.e. 48-72 hrs or less.

Longer term, mid atlantic heights look very probable with cold incursions from the N/NW.. 

I don't disagree- i guess a lot depends on how far north any high in the Atlantic can get before it collapses (if it collapses of course). 🙂

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sorry  been down the  club had a coupler of pints i know its fantasy  world    but it looks nice!

gensnh-15-1-384.png

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

B408FB0A-B3C2-4186-B266-CBF23E482DF0.thumb.gif.0dd254d0fb7678849d90dc31bc0bddea.gif

Yikes. Some massive hikes in the AO there...runs like the GFS 12z op probably fit that profile at the end. Very low polar heights and strong PV on display.

lol does the AO have outliers?

 

Edit:

At least the NAO is less progressive 

nao.sprd2.gif

Edited by Stuie W

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The one about to steam across the Atlantic?

Are you referring to the op/det runs?

or the reply to Knocker's post ^ because i can't see one on the anomaly chart he posted,i know that it's a broad-brush of all the ens and won't show it but it does look like a clean mid to upper Atlantic ridge to me.

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