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Paul

Model output discussion - late November

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Yes absolute epic GFS 06Z

Lets get over this weekends deluge  - get the cold embedded in and a week off were in buisiness.

I've seen Friday the 13th Chart but not posting up - interesting -  but in cloud cookoo  - the SE will experience conditions more accustomed to the Gorms at 900m asl....!

 

 

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Decent continuity from the control  off course never going to be identical   at 240hrs  but the low is certainly in or around us. 

image.thumb.png.ff789262cd227e7e657bcf5ff3424ee2.png

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1 hour ago, jules216 said:

First snowfall of the season arrived yesterday, it gave us a coating of 5cm. Our part of Europe is finally under some seasonal temperatures, long range suggests favorable conditions more to the west of Europe then here, through doesn´t look like traveling enough eastwards to lock us under deeper cold, better for UK,Scandi and western Europe. As I type outside temperature is -6.5C, not bad for a midday.

Yeah, pretty underwhelmed by the output for the CE. It will be unpleasant enough but the uppers are too weak to support anything wintry down here. Mountains will be alright I guess. 

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Decent ensembles   

image.thumb.png.dcb3f7b4d452e245aa8e1336aaae6dc0.png

Edited by weirpig

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Decent continuity from the control  off course never going to be identical   at 240hrs  but the low is certainly in or around us. 

image.thumb.png.ff789262cd227e7e657bcf5ff3424ee2.png

looks a like a topple! but jeeze I think many of us would accept that outcome if the previous slides were also correct! - I've been thinking on election, which party might benefit in the event of some wintry weather - Labour I might suggest! with the city vote being less impacted less than Rural...

 

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4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

looks a like a topple! but jeeze I think many of us would accept that outcome if the previous slides were also correct! - I've been thinking on election, which party might benefit in the event of some wintry weather - Labour I might suggest! with the city vote being less impacted less than Rural...

 

Yes the control  isnt the best compared to  some   there are some very frigid runs in the ensembles

Edited by weirpig

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8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Decent ensembles   

image.thumb.png.dcb3f7b4d452e245aa8e1336aaae6dc0.png

Wow, wasn’t a cold outlier!! What location are these for please?

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Wow, wasn’t a cold outlier!! What location are these for please?

Sorry  Tim  Birmingham  area

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I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off. 😋

image.thumb.png.621d0de5b7d6fcc067ea190ccab30776.png

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26 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Decent ensembles   

image.thumb.png.dcb3f7b4d452e245aa8e1336aaae6dc0.png

PPN looks flat for the 13th -  not so for this weekend.

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1 minute ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off. 😋

image.thumb.png.621d0de5b7d6fcc067ea190ccab30776.png

Yes, A foot and a half in one spot - beats 91 and close to 87.

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12 minutes ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off. 😋

image.thumb.png.621d0de5b7d6fcc067ea190ccab30776.png

Bit further northwest and that would be perfect! Although, I'm due to go to London on that Saturday and am slightly worried I might not be able to find the M4 lol.

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Latest blog from @Nick F

snow-hartshead-pike-crop.jpg
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Although it's still 9 days away, and subject to change, the weather models have have for several runs indicated a cold Election Day Thursday next week, even with a risk of snow.

 

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7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Bit further northwest and that would be perfect! Although, I'm due to go to London on that Saturday and am slightly worried I might not be able to find the M4 lol.

No need to worry!  on the next run it’ll be different again 😃

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Yes I'm not fussed with precipitation charts at day 10, as these will change from run to run.

What is encouraging is that we seem to be upgrading the potential for cold and snow from run to run. As the saying goes, "get the cold in first..." 

Very curious as to what the 12z's will have in store for us later. Hoping the UKMO can improve from it's recent flat offerings as well.

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49 minutes ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off. 😋

image.thumb.png.621d0de5b7d6fcc067ea190ccab30776.png

Its all about the jet digging as far south as possible- that chart is absolutely amazing for the SE and Scotland too.

FWIW that is a foot of snow in the SE next week.

London would grind to a halt for sure..

image.png

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well it sounds promising, even if not for my area but I've been disapointed too many times to get too hopeful.

My polling station is at my son's school so can look forward to the school being closed for snow, but the polling station open!

😀

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56 minutes ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off. 😋

image.thumb.png.621d0de5b7d6fcc067ea190ccab30776.png

Yay, my Snow Dance worked!!!!😀😀 One happy Surrey lass if this actually happened!!! Far out but at least it's nice to see something that gives SOME hope than dreary, zonal charts that give NO hope!!!❄❄☃️☃️x

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Of course we all know the cold stuff is still outside the reliable timeframe-

If we can get into slider territory as seen below then the game is on for coldies, we are still talking 168 (day 7) so need that to count down to day 4 or 5 to have good confidence,just another 3 days so if the charts are similar by thur i would expect some noises to be made in the media etc about a cold blast..

 

image.thumb.png.0ed1173fb3fd50ff6339b679fb11692e.png

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Of course we all know the cold stuff is still outside the reliable timeframe-

If we can get into slider territory as seen below then the game is on for coldies, we are still talking 168 (day 7) so need that to count down to day 4 or 5 to have good confidence,just another 3 days so if the charts are similar by thur i would expect some noises to be made in the media etc about a cold blast..

 

image.thumb.png.0ed1173fb3fd50ff6339b679fb11692e.png

Nathan Rao will be firing up his Apocolyptic thesaurus as we speak...

 

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