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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Cumbria Ensembles

Only going one way after this weekends deluge.

t2mCumbria.thumb.png.e68af45433499d1137e7b07e39c7b2f4.png

Mean flattening out 13th December

 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Frontal reloads after but that's getting to much into FI territory.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

UKMO at t144 is where GFS is at t108 and ECM at about same time as GFS to maybe t120.  So not too much of an issue, let’s see if it speeds the set up in today’s 12z run.  Has anyone got the t168 UKMO?  I think that would show towards the same evolution...hopefully.  
Richard (West is Best), hello mate but let’s not have any M4 boundary talk please .

Anyway, I have fairly high hopes for this December and front loaded winter.  As posted on 24th, my stance remains of 7/10 for cold to grip December with little let up.  
If the ECM and GFS are right at t120 mark....I back the deep FI general outlook of the GFS of ongoing and repeated cold attack as it looks very plausible to me.

(20th spotless day in a row, running at 256 days now, 13 to beat 2008.  Jet stream plunging south and meandering wildly....no co-incidence in my book).

 

As always though.....be nice to have the t144 charts at t48..........6 days is a long time in weather model life...

 BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
31 minutes ago, West is Best said:

We're heading for General Election chaos at this rate.

Heavy snow Tuesday and Wednesday north of the M4.

 

Good to see ECM has come on board.

Yes - if i thought you could be trusting those charts i would taking the 14-1 on a 50-59.99% turnout now.

EDIT : or certainly be going short on on a 70%+ turnout.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - if i thought you could be trusting those charts i would taking the 14-1 on a 50-59.99% turnout now.

Great odds, PM me with which company...I’ll have some

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
21 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

UKMO at t144 is where GFS is at t108 and ECM at about same time as GFS to maybe t120.  So not too much of an issue, let’s see if it speeds the set up in today’s 12z run.  Has anyone got the t168 UKMO?  I think that would show towards the same evolution...hopefully.  

Here you go

ukm2.2019121000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3b899351764e17764bc7ed71bd511405.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Great odds, PM me with which company...I’ll have some

 

BFTP

Best I can find Blast is 10/1 sub 60% with Laddies. Suspect those odds have shortened given recent model runs. 

1F7D47BB-8F75-4811-AA97-BDF73C2918D5.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Liking the potential on the GFS and ECM if we can't have a full on beast from the east then an unstable arctic source airstream suits me fine even living on the south coast. All sorts of troughs and disturbances can form at a few hours notice in that sort of set up.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

I think everything shall just flatten out once again in the next 24 to 48 hours and we be back to square one!!lets see what happens!!!need ukmo to be on board asap!!!expect a flatter gfs 06z if ukmo is correct!!!if the same charts are shown come friday i be getting really excited!

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
9 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think everything shall just flatten out once again in the next 24 to 48 hours and we be back to square one!!l

Why do you think that Shaky?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean looks cold and unsettled, carries on yesterday's trend for an increasing risk of snow next week, especially across northern hills..could get very interesting!!!

EDM0-216.thumb.gif.81a04700edbd348f8c7835649fd6a864.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.ad7427f74c1733ddc0bb932c7e92609b.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.a967dd4ec9685730fff5c6790482d7ef.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.e4504140cb5864322cb787e0a4d38607.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Even prior to the main timeframe we're looking at - it still gets pretty cold as early as Monday as a brief NWly flow rolls through From around D6-7 drawing in cold uppers thereafter for a chunk of the country

image.thumb.png.58e7fc6b9f561eebf1193251e768d58e.png

image.thumb.png.5da49ed39fda089274260fdb4375b209.png

image.thumb.png.ce9fa73c4dcebb76bf63c97488f437a8.png

 

All this happens prior to D7

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
27 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Why do you think that Shaky?

Dunno man its happened so many times before!!could be wrong this time and i hope i am!!gfs 06z looking solid so far up to 108 hours!!

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

gfsnh-0-114.thumb.png.6e9fba962bec246e6e10313700b15e3c.png

Even at this early stage id say slightly better ridging at 114 and better heights assimilating ??

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Dunno man its happened so many times before!!could be wrong this time and i hope i am!!gfs 06z looking solid so far up to 108 hours!!

More than solid - very decent ridge building.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

More than solid - very decent ridge building.

Yeh was gona say this is amazing!!!!we could be back in the cold within 5 days and the current cold spell has not even left us yet!brilliant stuff!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh was gona say this is amazing!!!!we could be back in the cold within 5 days and the current cold spell has not even left us yet!brilliant stuff!!

Mind you i don't think it will end as well as the 0z GFS with those snow events ironically - may be wrong - Northern arm a bit strong and next upstream ridging not as pronounced.

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Zonal train full steam ahead 8-)

Its the same old story as so far this autumn/winter...

The models wanting to revert to a standard set up but it has to be the solar activity causing small areas of higher pressure to our north and pushing the jet stream further south.

awesome chart for the 10th December

168.thumb.png.bc098afc3babdf0cabfb6ec0a5782059.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Looking good now actually - sliders galore coming into not frigid air but cold enough to support low level snow..

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