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Model output discussion - late November

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - always remember to flick through two of those dots to get the same timeframe - a bit harder because you get a quick flash of the in between chart but you can still see the comparison.

Just shows how hasty some folk can be :whistling:

by the way...

congrats on 17000 likes man

it would  be interesting to see if the 18z follows on from it's stella 12z run but i don't think it will,we shall see.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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18z is out to 102 with a similar tone to the ICON

- Slower eastward progression

- Slight more amplification 

Meaning that our slider & cold in the NE should all be further SW at 144

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First thoughts on pub run, here T114,  compared with GFS 12z and ECM 12z at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.5b74b1b157c4cae5527702468ec6d94d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bafb1778e1626c05bdb1e09f1fd4257c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7b59df7207f910e5f2a6f03fc2c329a8.jpg

Think the new run is right in the middle so far...one thing to look out for though is the arctic high, stronger on ECM means the purple dumbells are further south than either GFS run, so there is more space for a ridge to push into, so on balance I think we are set for a cracker, popcorn please!

Edited by Mike Poole

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12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just shows how hasty some folk can get :whistling:

by the way...

congrats on 17000 likes man

it would  be interesting to see if the 18z follows on from it's stella 12z run but i don't think it will,we shall see.

 

HA - didn't notice - thanks although a bit embarrassing considering my posts are often one-liner cold chasing posts - anyway you have a better like to post ratio than me.

Anyway back to the models - So so EC46 but cannot really tell too much - slider potential week 3 with a Scandi high signal (weakish) for week 4 but one one hand it is more sceuro (although that might be a good SSW signal), and anyway it does also extend towards Greenland - really not sure what to make of that.

 

image.thumb.png.bb254226ba9d75080ee3ead7b62c5b83.png

image.thumb.png.082214c4449bc6d52e53808cce45c1a1.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

First thoughts on pub run, here T144, compared with GFS 12z and ECM 12z at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.5b74b1b157c4cae5527702468ec6d94d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bafb1778e1626c05bdb1e09f1fd4257c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7b59df7207f910e5f2a6f03fc2c329a8.jpg

Think the new run is right in the middle so far...

114 Mike:whistling:

steady on,you are getting as bad as me lol

144 backed further west with the trough out of Newfoundland,more neg trough over the UK.

18z at 144 v 12z 150

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.58418b5d2473a91c94d1df7153337ebf.pnggfsnh-0-150.thumb.png.7b754a42cbf2df1632989ffab1d50814.png

 

 

 

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Slider looking good here for 174

Expecting more in the way of snow further south at 180 > -5c line over London...

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Small differences that could have bigger implications later down the run

12z-18z

image.thumb.png.cfc214fc7c841d3481a3584a8043ed9d.pngimage.thumb.png.276782db705e77426fe17281c1046f66.png

 

Edited by StretfordEnd1996

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5 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Small differences that could have bigger implications at +174

12z-18z

image.thumb.png.cfc214fc7c841d3481a3584a8043ed9d.pngimage.thumb.png.276782db705e77426fe17281c1046f66.png

 

Yes, indeed, but you really need to view on NH to get the upstream too, here T192, vs T198 on 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.6c863e854fb93c12baa009793af81753.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ad099b761406ba722c86ba073098e391.jpg

Game on...

Edited by Mike Poole

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Slider looking good here for 174

Expecting more in the way of snow further south at 180 > -5c line over London...

TBF the 12z wasn't too shabby for the south with that runner, i know it didn't show in the snow depth charts but cannot help thinking there would have been more than that.

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Just doesn't look as convincing to me around +210 but hey what am I to know

image.thumb.png.5b69835374ba07274220a4900b0f0e84.pngimage.thumb.png.eb263e0a71de7d900e22c9f7906818a9.png

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For me any potential heights towards Greenland in FI look very flimsy. You simply couldn't be confident that these heights will remain as we move to a reliable time frame.

As for the ecm 240hrs I'm sure most of us know by now that the ecm has a habit of raising heights to our North at this timeframe. Coolish zonal is what I see in the 10 day frame. After this is anyone's guess

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Nowhere near as cold as the 12z at day 10 unfortunately see comparisons below

B6A37D83-F4E7-4162-BAE4-10254A03C0E1.png

3B283F4B-264C-4936-8ED7-CFFD0BE33CE2.png

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Just now, January Snowstorm said:

For me any potential heights towards Greenland in FI look very flimsy. You simply couldn't be confident that these heights will remain as we move to a reliable time frame.

As for the ecm 240hrs I'm sure most of us know by now that the ecm has a habit of raising heights to our North at this timeframe. Coolish zonal is what I see in the 10 day frame. After this is anyone's guess

It's not about Greenland heights this year, I'm almost sure of that, it's about euro troughs, just look at the animation in my post above, that is what will deliver snow this winter at least for the early part.  

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@pv to lower lats take two at 240(yes,day ten again lol),although the 850's are not as good but the NH profile is v similar

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.32101346a094127d336a212a2b51fdf5.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.ac224835903511aa181494173dc91dec.png

v happy with this,consistency. 

 

 

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Cold filters down eventually. Not quite as cold as the 12z but cold enough for marginal snow events and definitely at elevation further north. It’s facinating to see the PV so stretched and almost dropping over us! Stakes are high here for a major snow event ! 

85D689DA-4DB6-4F3A-8CCB-B02496C76209.png

4134E089-476D-4C8C-95E6-1E3BC54B1A42.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

Looks a variation on a theme to me and anyone getting caught up on the precise 850 temps on any given day or the location and intensity of precipitation at this range is undoubtedly going to be very frustrated looking at small differences from run to run. 

Bang on. When it comes to wedges and sliding lows in la la land it will change run to run. The theme is what is important not the detail as they can change even on the day!

Edited by Snowman.

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

@pv to lower lats take two at 240(yes,day ten again lol),although the 850's are not as good but the NH profile is v similar

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.32101346a094127d336a212a2b51fdf5.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.ac224835903511aa181494173dc91dec.png

v happy with this,consistency. 

 

 

Yep agree very much

12z and the 18z are in all similar to each other especially when its D6-10 we're concerned about

Whilst the uppers are a little less potent (importantly so, as on the whole they do take quite a good while to reach nationwide -5 uppers) they do get there eventually and as you said the overall pattern is somewhat similar

12z first

D7

image.thumb.png.4afd154ac1d3d2f936bc4aeb67077a22.pngimage.thumb.png.b43eda87639834f75bf5a326d6fc2202.png

By D10

image.thumb.png.b7d5cbae427e422b61459c90c24aefd2.png

In a way its just perhaps the proper head of the cold spell has been pushed back around 12-24 hours

 

But the rather mediocre cold uppers annoyed me a tad - we don't really get them by D10 (or beyond?)

image.thumb.png.897da54b332231134a82509f3edd821b.png

 

 

 

 

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I wouldn’t worry too much about the uppers. In mid dec -5c will do. It snowed in Wales / Shropshere the other week with -3 uppers 

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9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me any potential heights towards Greenland in FI look very flimsy. You simply couldn't be confident that these heights will remain as we move to a reliable time frame.

As for the ecm 240hrs I'm sure most of us know by now that the ecm has a habit of raising heights to our North at this timeframe. Coolish zonal is what I see in the 10 day frame. After this is anyone's guess

I think that you answered your own question there!

2 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Looks a variation on a theme to me and anyone getting caught up on the precise 850 temps on any given day or the location and intensity of precipitation at this range is undoubtedly going to be very frustrated looking at small differences from run to run. 

exactly

850's can change,ppn most certainly can change at very short notice,

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t worry too much about the uppers. In mid dec -5c will do. It snowed in Wales / Shropshere the other week with -3 uppers 

Absolutely - I'm not worried about them it'd just have been nice for me to go to bed knowing the charts were widely showing -5 and lower!

Marginal is the word I think we'd be looking for - but sometimes that makes it more exciting

On face value for me there's nothing wrong with this chart below 🙂 Indeed 18z shows some good charts and good setups prior to D10 - but hopefully in the next day or two we can really bring some of these lovely charts into the nearer timeframe?

image.thumb.png.949a9db5fc4cdf3f423f72d704db2ff6.png

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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

One thing we can say with some confidence is the Atlantic is coming back  after a 6 or 7 day holiday..

White or wet and where is impossible to pin down at the range considered-

GEFS look very good, hopefully the eps will be similar .

Always was NWS....but angle of attack and the very low 850s bearing in mind 3000miles of Ocean....impressive 

 

It WILL be cold....not mild

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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