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Model output discussion - late November

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T168 and up she goes 👍

B474A611-E6AD-4FC2-BF8C-3A1360B07E1F.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Looking Great on the ECM

watching for the ridge & its angle at 168

 

Game on now - even better than the 0z, Atlantic trough looks more disrupted and elongated.

image.thumb.png.18a4c51650469daeff8c1ba38f88b31b.png

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34 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Bold to be predicting the first half of December 🤔 

 

EECC4CCD-36D6-4705-BCD4-4F5D329C89B5.jpeg

Marco hasn’t seen MOGREPS or looked at output in detail he’s just referring to ECM and Meto update 

9B9A292E-EAFC-404B-A7F6-08EF5C25F6D5.jpeg

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Might not look so good to defo chance of improvement at 192 with the profile to the NW - could open back up towards Greenland 

94BD4A38-2C1A-4055-99DD-3C05E0F9E2EC.png

 

Edited by Ali1977

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Marco hasn’t seen MOGREPS or looked at output in detail he’s just referring to ECM and Meto update 

9B9A292E-EAFC-404B-A7F6-08EF5C25F6D5.jpeg

I’m pretty sure he writes the meto long ranger Tim 

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10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

144 looks good to me, similar to the UKMO 

E7DAE591-EA89-4224-8A41-524D66E54FD3.png

950CBE48-5997-4D43-BD47-9DA0F3B4413A.png

thats a good spot.

so there closely following each other that's good thing.

the two models combined are not bad.

plus gefs then yes good.

bit more cool wet windy then we get a chance, then a blip then, maybe a real chance.

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To compare 144 (for everybody to argue over)

GFS, UKMO, ECM

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.5f55278c8083b42e28d26db0a018a9ac.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.1283edfa731a5e9688bce0dcd01eb29a.GIFECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.d4d1250ceeb7f300f1c94f131a2b0d24.png

 

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1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

To compare 144 (for everybody to argue over)

GFS, UKMO, ECM

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.5f55278c8083b42e28d26db0a018a9ac.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.1283edfa731a5e9688bce0dcd01eb29a.GIFECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.d4d1250ceeb7f300f1c94f131a2b0d24.png

 

The UKMO and ECM are far more similar than the ever progressive GFS, just look at Iceland to see that.

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50 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I don’t , I think cold December has a real chance here.

BFTP

I sincerely hope you're right, Fred. I'm sick of stinkers, busts and near misses!:oldgrin:

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1 hour ago, Raythan said:

Bold to be predicting the first half of December 🤔 

If I'm honest feels a bit like that on here 😕 it's nice to see this forum so alive though. :gathering: 

The main story this weekend and indeed next week for the time being is potentially more flooding Gfs and Gem synoptic situation for next week into next weekend below..

Looking at this range because I've done the detail for the short term earlier this afternoon. ☺️

Gem.. 👇

30th..

2047550242_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_180(5).thumb.jpg.cd4d78d9640b0194861266337aac7a6e.jpg

636322927_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(4).thumb.jpg.b5ec45e62b86fb0a6a3d3cf4bd311853.jpg

1st..

700243392_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_204(2).thumb.jpg.283aadc38b4924763b02e23cb84a0370.jpg

2nd..

319338015_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_228(4).thumb.jpg.aab9e0ff8c22f4933a1f3af047ebcc7c.jpg

1229697397_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(35).thumb.jpg.ecb10641ee318713ce75fd98d9429770.jpg

Gem showing a low pressure system diving Southeast on the last day of November into the near continent with a ridge of high pressure toppling over bringing a brief northeastly wind then an area of low pressure drifting over the top of this high resulting in more wet weather. 

GFS Same time frame.. 👇

736805348_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(5).thumb.jpg.74829ee003f530f4c4dac7e0bf20331c.jpg

1255817768_EUROPE_PRMSL_204(3).thumb.jpg.9abb1f32b0ba5b4b034595d2f1744fc3.jpg

774166084_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(16).thumb.jpg.92b1fcc0f86e379233b52b7ba4c31118.jpg

GFS similar for that time frame with low pressure sliding southeast at the end of the month with high pressure ridging north but a little stronger on this model with a brisk northeasterly wind the high pressure then sinks south but instead of another low pressure system diving South into the UK disrupting it this high builds slap bang over us and is stronger deflecting low pressure away to the north which is good news for flooded areas though low confidence on this. 👍

GFS 5 day accumulated rainfall shows very well the pretty large rainfall totals for most of England, Wales and Scotland with the far west of Scotland avoiding most of this. :oldgood: 

1646887253_precipaccum5dayukhd(3).thumb.png.466610dbd724d14bb4bce427c85fb2cb.png

Edited by jordan smith

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7 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

To compare 144 (for everybody to argue over)

GFS, UKMO, ECM

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.5f55278c8083b42e28d26db0a018a9ac.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.1283edfa731a5e9688bce0dcd01eb29a.GIFECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.d4d1250ceeb7f300f1c94f131a2b0d24.png

 

cant argue with that lol.

all broadly similar there just weather charts that look scrummy for cold seekers.

loooooooking goood 192

1103270534_ECM1-192(2).thumb.gif.0480c6e3e12675026efa3ffbeb23421f.gif

 

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GFS and ECM at D9:

579467876_gfsnh-0-216(1).thumb.png.62d1ff74675cea41c93f6bb0bbad184a.png948607405_ECH1-216(1).thumb.gif.992e9f8f98c85b8532e7c288ebd49ce5.gif

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

It’s a sinker 😤

 

Yep like GFS 12z

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a sinker 😤

93923B90-2EDE-45C8-B534-C6AD0EB451CB.png

It’s a tad disappointing to be honest!! 

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And you see what those differences early doors make. We need to go back the other way to get a decent cold spell, certainly, any further the other way and this will amount to little 9417A4AA-D198-4294-B877-6ABA25378854.thumb.png.45152e02e5819d8d9638d0cd21268e12.png

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a sinker 😤

93923B90-2EDE-45C8-B534-C6AD0EB451CB.png

If anything, it's less amplified than the GFS at day 9.

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The detail of the evolution later next week is going to take some pinning down. The ecm obviously tackles the same problem as the gfs with the energy distribution which alters suddenly with the amplification between t168 > 192

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-5115200.thumb.png.dcf156f6049de5c6e8ef873d2d5cafa5.png

144.thumb.png.0cad56f29ca72197da2793e86cc5e1f2.png174.thumb.png.b788767e5994c89be5e806cbbfb79f58.png102.thumb.png.46e0b161ffed0887fcd62b9a19bcf4ed.png

Edited by knocker

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If anything, it's less amplified than the GFS at day 9.

Yes,we never seem to have lows disrupting and sliding under the high,they just barrel around wearing the high down then sink it.......

Onto the next set of runs.

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will be different tomorrow, this is too good, both models have high pressure to start the most unsettled month

gfs-0-234.png?12ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

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I wonder what the ECM 1mb and 10mb temperature and height charts from TODAY's run are like, it would be interesting to know.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

will be different tomorrow, this is too good, both models have high pressure to start the most unsettled month

gfs-0-234.png?12ECM1-240.GIF?22-0

I think both GFS 12z and EC look quite feasable  imo.any major heights pushingtowards Greenland looks transient ATM.energy up the west coast of Greenland looks too big a call .that said any dry cool weather is welcome

Edited by swfc

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