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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Jet not digging south and no sliding lows on the GEM still unfortunately. Doesn’t have the wedge of heights in Greenland unfortunately. 

Looks like a wedge of heights might just be slower evolution. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM v GFS at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.8c07a381e015658d6389b32c76fcb204.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8e21a1378d9d0889c2788d9d36c818ac.jpg

ECM with more room between the two lows to maybe build a ridge. Might get a stronger northerly out of this one?  But, of course, maybe more snow...or less snow...we will see

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Ooooh!!!! Matron...

will we see Scandi heights from here?

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.786786107692e4bd6b7dcd11e0f2e574.gif

what a 168 chart that is.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ooooh!!!! Matron...

will we see Scandi heights from here?

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.786786107692e4bd6b7dcd11e0f2e574.gif

what a 168 chart that is.

 

Oohhh now I’m interested. 
 

Good ridge by Alaska as well. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

To follow the GFS we need to see the vortex split here and the WAA get towards the heights in the high arctic!! 

002B9BA0-3FF9-4096-952F-F844C957EDCF.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

No Scandi high but a nice wedge East of Iceland should force the trough SE.

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.579678c4cd34b654024235acefb4f401.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Have i put the mockers on the ecm or what,it's not following my thought's

it just looks suspect to me from 168.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

That Low just a bit to strong on this run at 168hr 955mb think ECM could have went off on one blowing it up what you think @Steve Murr

ECM1-168.gif

Yes, that is one of the key components of getting UK cold pooling, that vortex to the west has to disrupt and slide under any wedge from the mini-ridge. Otherwise a cut off low like that will just divert the cold uppers away from the UK. This is in the GEFS and is clearly a possible outcome.

By D9 the colder uppers are gone: ECE0-216.thumb.gif.8a342abab9f015da8fd2995b3cffeebc.gif

Fine margins needed as ever to get UK cold. See how it goes tomorrow...

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Gfs seems to of gone more towards what the Ecmwf scenario showed the last few days for days 7-10 

Shorter term heavy and persistent rain for Western Scotland in particular on Thursday likely to cause a few issues with over 50mm in places. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_72.thumb.jpg.e69e599f053bcffcf1a2d208b31d6aae.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_78.thumb.jpg.af0201997059aae1fd2ce732acb0a425.jpg

Anyway So further ahead still an unsettled pattern shown but perhaps a bit more of a wintry element than was shown to be the case a few days ago especially by the GFS.. 

GFS for Next Tuesday for an example showing a complicated weather system sliding southeast across the country next tuesday this is pushing through quite cold air perhaps evaporative cooling would turn this wet weather wintry in nature especially on high ground but this is 8 days away so very uncertain as you would expect. 

10th..

1875245577_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(1).thumb.jpg.7e9f76db50dbe1a04b85fd1d86b2f003.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_ZERO_186.thumb.jpg.b77db4947d2a54589659e64495fb0f98.jpg

1112302217_EUROPE_PRMSL_186(3).thumb.jpg.3d0ab081ab16f14d24719d8152cc8cbd.jpg

2028231887_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_186(1).thumb.jpg.86a09d552ad90938d759d1864ef7c1bb.jpg

Ecmwf.. 

146456451_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(1).thumb.jpg.ab9be24273857945d14e3c685999b0dd.jpg

Atlantic frontal systems come on a slightly more northeast trajectory for that same day with perhaps snow for a time in the north but elsewhere just wet and windy. 

By day 10 this is shown..

GFS.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_234.thumb.jpg.5d296dc746712649a984348e3e74262f.jpg

As Ive seen a lot of interest on this time frame A pretty cold pattern with an area of low pressure close to southern and Eastern England within cold air with a mix of rain/sleet/snow but no certainty on that ofcourse. 

Ecmwf.. 

1102196020_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(1).thumb.jpg.8d7264abee2178ab097d1d67490e8100.jpg

Broadly Similar with areas of low pressure moving around close to the UK within quite cold air so perhaps some wintriness to things at times but unsettled with further spells of rain with some snow mostly for the hills further north. 

Putting the Ecmwf and Gfs together.. 

467592376_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(5).thumb.jpg.aa0b67712c9857b4336fb37c956cf202.jpg

Quite cold and unsettled. 

Those wintry scenarios not to be take too seriously this far out really. Perhaps a more wintry look to things as we go towards day 10 and beyond but it's quite possible that this doesn't happen and milder conditions come back in with the jet stream strengthening bringing some potentially stormy conditions, certainly still a possibility of note though is no particular signal for high pressure returning within the next 10 days or so. Plenty to keep an eye on.

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

It is funny, if the output was the other way around we would be saying how bad the GFS is and how it can't model trough disruption and laughing at its silly bowling ball lows.

ECH1-168.GIF?02-0ECH1-216.GIF?02-0

I have a feeling this will very much be on the milder side of the ECM ensembles (especially 850 temp) but clearly more runs needed.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

^

Yes a poor ECM, i wonder whether it will do a Murr GFS style bactrack over the coming runs?

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Nirvana charts just slightly out of reach on the ecm  however it doesn't take a genius to see how different it could turn out to be  I'd rather a near miss than a jackpot run  at 7 days out   all looking rather interesting all of a sudden 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

chances are the outcome will be somewhere between the ECM and GFS. Could still be cold enough for marginal snow events. ECM goes for -4 uppers and GFS -8 ...let’s meet in the middle, shake hands on -6c and go and wax our sledges shall we ??‍♂️☃️

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM great run - Just not quite as cold as the GFS however from day 7 plenty of scope for adjustments now within the pattern.

Day 10 ECM indicates more southerly tracking systems - A monster storm in the states but jet alignment is SE-

NOTED is the rise in pressure Scandi with frigid air in place.

Ideally the atlantic low 168>192 needs a bit more disruption like the GFS to tug that cold in quicker...

Great 10 day chart though-

 

I thought the rampant low to the NW looked to be moving too fast to make it a great D10 chart Steve, hopefully will bow to your knowledge though STeve.

EDIT. : though there is a sign of vertical (ish) WAA to be fair.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

As Simon cowell would say,"what the bloody hell was that"

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.ba8154d312c4f5b7296f760e1955d2f3.gif

 

but i am not bothered as it looked good up to 168.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM great run - Just not quite as cold as the GFS however from day 7 plenty of scope for adjustments now within the pattern.

Day 10 ECM indicates more southerly tracking systems - A monster storm in the states but jet alignment is SE-

NOTED is the rise in pressure Scandi with frigid air in place.

Ideally the atlantic low 168>192 needs a bit more disruption like the GFS to tug that cold in quicker...

Great 10 day chart though-

 

Very odd run Steve...... never seen trough clearance so quick?!

 

BFTP 

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