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Model output discussion - late November

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Looking at the longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean I think unsettled and rather cold sums it up, I would think cold enough at times for snow across northern hills and occasionally to lower levels, the same applies to the GEFS 0z mean!👍

EDM1-216.thumb.gif.2e47f3b8538dc6143e9e4bfc4c8a51ec.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.4ee2b17d899dea13ece961db4ddd5745.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.01a499f6de6b797ca6f7ac8b594ace88.gif

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On 01/12/2019 at 07:10, Mr Frost said:

Morning all!

@DiagonalRedLine can you make this thread disappear from about 23:00 until 05:00 every day please? 😁 What a load of waffle! 

Currently -4c outside...lovely first day of Meteorological Winter ahead. 

Latest ECM

anim_nuo7.gif
 

Morning @Mr Frost

Think I’ll have to if we see a lot of naughty behaviour in here. And worse, I’ll tell Santa to get the naughty ones lumps of coal for Christmas 😈

So you better watch out and stay on topic guys (don’t follow my example of going off topic.... ), otherwise you’ll know what will happen. :spiteful:

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GFS 06Z

Well Well - Winter arrives albeit 10 Days off.

Scandi and Icelandic LP jouining and opening the floodgates.

PPN mainly on all the usual suspects maybe favourable at 300 to 400ft asl Cumbria?

h500slp.thumb.png.58111fb4c2d24e1deb36c2bfaf281050.pnguksnowrisk.thumb.png.c2d9cfef9df07839c689ea8afb8fd807.png

*BANK*

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Think that’s the GFS 00Z run. 06Z run still coming out 🙂 

Quite a pretty chart though. One of these days, a chart like that with a trough of very low UK/Eastern UK and Scandinavian Heights will hopefully make it down to 00 hours... in one piece (for those who like the chilly and wintry conditions :). Although, to be fair, a day like today where a cold High Pressure is delivering some white, sparkling, frost in places, particularly across the South, could count as one of the forms of wintry weather).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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Looking at the 6z out to 204, it's a messy old chart.  But, looking pretty stacked with 'potential' with cold uppers approaching from the north and high pressure building to the west of Iceland.

image.thumb.png.d1d5637ad2a461325380b1c2c1592266.pngimage.thumb.png.45e046084de3b1bea7b416f5ef0d0b63.png

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we need stronger heights to the North or it will all collapse and low pressure will barrel thorough

Edited by SLEETY

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Just now, Nick F said:

Looks primed on 06z thus far for the arctic floodgates to open again for General Election Day

Yep, the 12th keeps rearing its head for something wintry.  Based on this run, it could be quite notable in some parts?  Attack coming in from the north east at 234hrs

image.thumb.png.01573239ecce4843a92069da66ad151f.png

Uppers dropping across the UK.  Belting run for Scotland particularly!

image.thumb.png.6426a4b2f2fb6d0a06f21a53b863255a.png

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Some consistency now for the 12/13 cold spell. See below 00z vs 06z. Prefer the 00z for snow. 06z is cold and mainly dry:

C55EB698-57BD-4AD4-AE55-077AB222CBF7.png

585D3489-A2D6-4ABC-B1E2-F3F59696A194.png

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Looking at 06z GFS the the pattern continues low pressure tracking from our north west over a weak ridge 

and settling in Scandinavia.Allowing cold to very cold north to north west winds,plenty of snow showers

in many places.Not bad at all if charts can be believed at 240 hrs.

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Interestingly there is some consistency between the ECM and GFS now at 240 (ECM first).... certainly not a perfect match but more than a passing resemblance!  Something to keep an eye on over the next few runs if nothing else!

     image.thumb.png.8e7a886f97bdfcb585a5cccf6f91cc27.pngimage.thumb.png.5308c6844e4570382becf3d10d18a8e2.png

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43 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Think that’s the GFS 00Z run. 06Z run still coming out 🙂 

Quite a pretty chart though. One of these days, a chart like that with a trough of very low UK/Eastern UK and Scandinavian Heights will hopefully make it down to 00 hours... in one piece (for those who like the chilly and wintry conditions :). Although, to be fair, a day like today where a cold High Pressure is delivering some white, sparkling, frost in places, particularly across the South, could count as one of the forms of wintry weather).

Oooops.

Heres the 06Z  Scandi more to the NE less ppn.

"More runs needed" as they say.

h500slp.thumb.png.5a25ef56d6f19d2e571c2ae52e4809be.png

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The GEFS at D10 pretty consistent with the op pattern:

gens_panel_pmz6.png

So tightening up on the next 13 days or so. After that it currently trending towards the flow flattening UK wise, but early days in that respect. So a cool regime very likely and the possibility of something a little colder possible. However no sustained blocking looks likely, with the Arctic high forcing the tPV chunks to cycle to our north, though wedges are in the game but downgraded on the 06z run due to less WAA from the Pacific ridge early in the run, ditto the Atlantic mini-ridges.

Certainly the first half of December is more interesting than recent years.

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Yes..that Pacific arm-certainly holding the vortex at the eastern hem quadrant..and allowing better width of amp-in the Atlantic..and point tip Greenland!=

The upstream is also appearing as more fruitful given developing synoptics!..

And even a semi-Siberian outbreak starts further possible roading into our part due to evolving developments..

Many pluses_as there were originally....though they seem to be gaining....not dispersing!..

What's not to like....

And my earmark are still firmly for around 9/10..and fully expect model catch up on/around these dates..

Edited by tight isobar

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The GEFS 06Zs are nae too bad, either...Though, as always, they could be better!:oldgrin:

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

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😮

h500slp.thumb.png.ad211049041a0eb6a7337b45a3eacd47.pnguksnowrisk.thumb.png.cde0a7899d91c77e14099ee4abb6583c.png

06z carrying on the wintery theme for mid December GFS has the fun and games starting as early as the 10th.

Transient quick ppn laden front whips in on a NW giving some near blizzard conditions on the tops.

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