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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Just now, Nick F said:

Looks primed on 06z thus far for the arctic floodgates to open again for General Election Day

Yep, the 12th keeps rearing its head for something wintry.  Based on this run, it could be quite notable in some parts?  Attack coming in from the north east at 234hrs

image.thumb.png.01573239ecce4843a92069da66ad151f.png

Uppers dropping across the UK.  Belting run for Scotland particularly!

image.thumb.png.6426a4b2f2fb6d0a06f21a53b863255a.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Some consistency now for the 12/13 cold spell. See below 00z vs 06z. Prefer the 00z for snow. 06z is cold and mainly dry:

C55EB698-57BD-4AD4-AE55-077AB222CBF7.png

585D3489-A2D6-4ABC-B1E2-F3F59696A194.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Trust Boris to hold a General Election on Day 10!:crazy:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Looking at 06z GFS the the pattern continues low pressure tracking from our north west over a weak ridge 

and settling in Scandinavia.Allowing cold to very cold north to north west winds,plenty of snow showers

in many places.Not bad at all if charts can be believed at 240 hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Interestingly there is some consistency between the ECM and GFS now at 240 (ECM first).... certainly not a perfect match but more than a passing resemblance!  Something to keep an eye on over the next few runs if nothing else!

     image.thumb.png.8e7a886f97bdfcb585a5cccf6f91cc27.pngimage.thumb.png.5308c6844e4570382becf3d10d18a8e2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
43 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Think that’s the GFS 00Z run. 06Z run still coming out  

Quite a pretty chart though. One of these days, a chart like that with a trough of very low UK/Eastern UK and Scandinavian Heights will hopefully make it down to 00 hours... in one piece (for those who like the chilly and wintry conditions :). Although, to be fair, a day like today where a cold High Pressure is delivering some white, sparkling, frost in places, particularly across the South, could count as one of the forms of wintry weather).

Oooops.

Heres the 06Z  Scandi more to the NE less ppn.

"More runs needed" as they say.

h500slp.thumb.png.5a25ef56d6f19d2e571c2ae52e4809be.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's Day 14, and it's the return of the soon-to-disappear Slider Scenario!

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GEFS at D10 pretty consistent with the op pattern:

gens_panel_pmz6.png

So tightening up on the next 13 days or so. After that it currently trending towards the flow flattening UK wise, but early days in that respect. So a cool regime very likely and the possibility of something a little colder possible. However no sustained blocking looks likely, with the Arctic high forcing the tPV chunks to cycle to our north, though wedges are in the game but downgraded on the 06z run due to less WAA from the Pacific ridge early in the run, ditto the Atlantic mini-ridges.

Certainly the first half of December is more interesting than recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Yes..that Pacific arm-certainly holding the vortex at the eastern hem quadrant..and allowing better width of amp-in the Atlantic..and point tip Greenland!=

The upstream is also appearing as more fruitful given developing synoptics!..

And even a semi-Siberian outbreak starts further possible roading into our part due to evolving developments..

Many pluses_as there were originally....though they seem to be gaining....not dispersing!..

What's not to like....

And my earmark are still firmly for around 9/10..and fully expect model catch up on/around these dates..

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GEFS 06Zs are nae too bad, either...Though, as always, they could be better!:oldgrin:

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

h500slp.thumb.png.ad211049041a0eb6a7337b45a3eacd47.pnguksnowrisk.thumb.png.cde0a7899d91c77e14099ee4abb6583c.png

06z carrying on the wintery theme for mid December GFS has the fun and games starting as early as the 10th.

Transient quick ppn laden front whips in on a NW giving some near blizzard conditions on the tops.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The GEFS 06Zs are nae too bad, either...Though, as always, they could be better!:oldgrin:

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

There actually not bad at all..in heading in the correct direction..@ensembles

 

As for Euro temp plots...they are even more persuasive..

@Scandinavian deepening...and hints if we get wedge of heights favourable...then an -outbreak of Siberian/via Scandinavian pulse...are beginning to look intriguing!!!

 

@middle plot for analysis!!

temp4 (13).png<<

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
41 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Ah the good old '10 day off' phrase.....I expect we'll see rather a lot of that this winter.

Better than 15 days off last winter. At this rate 2022 is setting up to be legendary.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Who's up for an early taste of spring with daffodils as we approach christmas?..joking aside, the longer term GEFS 6z mean is tending towards a predominantly more southwesterly direction.

13_366_850tmp.thumb.png.8367da7e410677f6bc1b0ca5833439ed.png13_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.8a4c86d91fb46b62f972e50bc10f2627.png21_378_850tmp.thumb.png.945ec607592a9c7a3feea44e44e4fdcb.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Yes - Serious Temp difference this weekend.

Then all downhil from there to mid Dec.

Bonkers GFS Temps

t2mCumbria.thumb.png.7815c673be024ed86db0ba5592b521f8.png

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

I'm liking the overall look and feel to what the models have produced so far today - it's certainly an improvement to what we saw on the weekend

GFS hints at heights trying to gather around Greenland as early as D8 and by D10 lands us in something a little more convincing

image.thumb.png.5283cded2db6c87229e01b451a7e5c01.png

image.thumb.png.ba0326da66bcaea02eae667b63c67339.png

image.thumb.png.ae80151c5354f6d994e89db196e014d5.png

And this really is just for fun but just a taster of some possible precipitation happenings the GFS is seeing for next week

image.thumb.png.2bc798bb277eebb6c98fee2fc2413ab1.png

 

Of course this means nothing at the moment but there's bags and bags of potential for something wintry in nature precipitation wise for at least Scotland/Northern hills at the very least IF these charts keep rolling - it'd be cold enough 

Fully understand people's frustration at seeing 'never come off' D10 charts - but let's not forget, they will come off one day (otherwise in theory we'd never see a cold setup in the UK again!) - just a bit of patience is required and eventually it will happen - and hopefully in the near future!

Some signs of support too from the GEFS 

image.thumb.png.2085e234dfcd1f08795dea80d9154609.png

And the ECM though the ECM isn't perfect (on face value) - it does show some good signs (though again only by D10!!)

image.thumb.png.fc77d32ecaf8f4f4a4ed728dcdbcc334.png

Onto 12z have a feeling there may be a few more hopeful tricks up her sleeve.  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ICON has an interesting little feature today with a little potential for some snow in the North though perhaps not cold enough.

Hard to tell as it under-does the 850's but that disrupting low would keep any colder air on its Northern flank in place and would manage some nice wrap around of any cold air to the NE as it moves SE.

Don't want to big it up as it is an outside chance but maybe something to watch (disruption) at least as we look longer term for any cold prospects. Let's see what GFS thinks

iconnh-0-141.png?02-12iconnh-0-150.png?02-12

 

EDIT 1

UKMO not going for that sort of disruption SE, at least not at the earlier time-frame of ICON

UN144-21.GIF?02-16

 

EDIT 2

GFS not either so will have to wait for the low behind. Probably a wasted post on ICON output unless ECM pops up with the goods 

gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
On 30/11/2019 at 17:31, Griff said:

As a newcomer (having lurked for a couple of winters), I'm curious to see how this flips back and forth over the next week as it has since last week. Lots of times I've seen people caution not to judge a trend on just one run, be it for the worst or better. I guess time will tell. 

I would agree which is why said assumptions should not be made in the post you quoted and MRN (More runs needed) but technically it was 22 runs as it was commentary on that specific ensemble set

Edited by Mucka
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