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Model output discussion - late November

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@Steve Murr

 

While your thoughts on gfs are very clear Steve it's worth keeping in mind the other models also have their flaws. For Example ECM almost always over amplifies beyond 192 hours. How many times has the ECM shown a full blown Greeny high at 240hours only for it to be blown away in closer timeframes. As for the ukmo it's 144 chart was always known to be a bit fickle. Anyways back to the charts this evening and baby steps starting to show up for a colder outlook in a weeks time or so..

Edited by January Snowstorm

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

@Steve Murr

 

While your thoughts on gfs are very clear Steve it's worth keeping in mind the other models also have their flaws. For Example ECM almost always over amplifies beyond 192 hours. How many times has the ECM shown a full blown Greeny high at 240hours only for it to be blown away in closer timeframes. As for the ukmo it's 144 chart was always known to be a bit fickle. Anyways back to the charts this evening and baby steps starting to show up for a colder outlook in a weeks time or so..

Yes of course mate however the logical point of view needs to be with the 'most' likely outcome.

Last review ( on the run in to this cold spell ) the swing to the Euro blend was about 80-85% & thus far the ECM hasnt edged back at all today but the GFS has trended every run so we are still at around 100% Swing.....

Lets see where the overnights go.....

What it does mean is the ENS should be dipping away again post day 6 🙂

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Uppers very up and down in the next 5 days or so 

Thereafter the GEFS does look a tad colder than average without question - but I'd have liked a few more members to flirt with the -5 uppers

image.thumb.png.f0fae711433132c6dafdfc42533c1b0f.png

Still - the mean does look acceptable in the long run with any signs of that horrid euroslug looking quite far south

image.thumb.png.8631f18ec4d2e634a625077cce14d91c.png

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Shades of December 2012 with the polar maritime potential, let's hope it comes off.

Edited by Bruegelian

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1 minute ago, Bruegelian said:

Shades of December 2012 with the polar maritime potential.

Yeah i'd semi agree with that too. Difference was December 2012 started off a lot more promising. I was thinking Dec 2014/Dec 2017 as being more similar personally

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4 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Yeah i'd semi agree with that too. Difference was December 2012 started off a lot more promising. I was thinking Dec 2014/Dec 2017 as being more similar personally

On second thoughts I would say, that is a more accurate assessment.   👍

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54 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If we get anywhere close to this in the 7 day window, this place will be in meltdown

I think this place was already in meltdown mode just 24hours ago. :pardon:

Good agreement between the Gfs, Gem and Ecmwf on low pressure moving back into the north of the UK on Thursday bringing wet and very windy weather to Scotland at first then through Friday and Saturday this spreads slowly south and east with a longer spell of rain for England and Wales.

GFS.. 👇

Thursday.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90.thumb.jpg.36535c6faeccc5f74f9b6b41e0425b2a.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_90.thumb.jpg.9b17802c25776bdee59c7327b85e506f.jpg

Gem.. 👇

287843454_EUROPE_PRMSL_90(1).thumb.jpg.7d1e5df8e1e6f4c29c8c53a56d734181.jpg

135189742_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90(1).thumb.jpg.29a77e5a6cd793f9059db20c3a1abdda.jpg

Ecmwf.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_96.thumb.jpg.485816bdcbb61daeed6360ef6fe54ab4.jpg

GFS Wind gust chart for Thursday.. 👇

18_90_windvector_gust.thumb.png.df8130c6825fdb6fea9f403a42c2b993.png

18_93_windvector_gust.thumb.png.cbd1ab0dac8cfa5d6fc7a015a7bc3ed0.png

The weekend still looking very unsettled with the possibility of a deep low pressure system which was shown yesterday to still push southeast through or close to the UK into the north sea around the 8th or 9th with very windy weather and bands of rain sweeping through.. 

Gfs.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_156.thumb.jpg.8eba16a543878d9e69afa1bf21c3b10b.jpg

864141060_EUROPE_PRMSL_168(2).thumb.jpg.7dca9ea2e6165e2665e65d01a953d9fc.jpg

2132554199_EUROPE_PRMSL_174(1).thumb.jpg.0da65d2afa2c8a6a5d9c2eb568c24fb0.jpg

Gem.. 👇

353027034_EUROPE_PRMSL_186(2).thumb.jpg.b892502835689143ba8ed81fc16ca57f.jpg

It isn't likely to be particularly mild either and indeed the ECM has more in the way of wintriness to the showers come the weekend on a brisk northwesterly flow. Into next week most models keep things unsettled and rather cold upto atleast days 9/10.. 

GFS.. 

32823593_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(1).thumb.jpg.9238a1559a7408336e99d0d2e0c24eb0.jpg

Wet and very windy but a mild south-westerly for a time. 

Gem.. 

1245321596_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(2).thumb.jpg.fe226d011602560a49b8f45cb1cc60c4.jpg

Unsettled but rather cold with a long fetch northwesterly wind. 

Putting the Ecmwf Gem and Gfs output together it paints an unsettled picture with spells of rain and potentially stormy weather if any lows form in the flow early next week.. 

59185608_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(3).thumb.jpg.96f27ac36c6dfb97c47f7f8090395c96.jpg

Another look at the jet stream forecast from the gfs for early and mid next week.. 

1196633456_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_204(1).thumb.jpg.5532176ecd352b70028ede1738438cc1.jpg

742279708_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_156(1).thumb.jpg.a5c71386f0d17e37ea2794f49d71b35c.jpg

A strong jet stream shown with the potential for a few deep lows moving close to or over the UK bringing perhaps a stormier period after the weekend, but still a ways out and will be keeping a close eye on this in the coming days. 👍

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1 hour ago, Bruegelian said:

Shades of December 2012 with the polar maritime potential, let's hope it comes off.

Dec 2011 was better here - 2012 gave me 1 inch of ice around the time 'That ECM' came out but nothing else - Dec 2011 a few minor snow events totalling about 2-3 inches of snow altogether.

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1 hour ago, jordan smith said:

I think this place was already in meltdown mode just 24hours ago. :pardon:

Good agreement between the Gfs, Gem and Ecmwf on low pressure moving back into the north of the UK on Thursday bringing wet and very windy weather to Scotland at first then through Friday and Saturday this spreads slowly south and east with a longer spell of rain for England and Wales.

GFS.. 👇

Thursday.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90.thumb.jpg.36535c6faeccc5f74f9b6b41e0425b2a.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_90.thumb.jpg.9b17802c25776bdee59c7327b85e506f.jpg

Gem.. 👇

287843454_EUROPE_PRMSL_90(1).thumb.jpg.7d1e5df8e1e6f4c29c8c53a56d734181.jpg

135189742_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90(1).thumb.jpg.29a77e5a6cd793f9059db20c3a1abdda.jpg

Ecmwf.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_96.thumb.jpg.485816bdcbb61daeed6360ef6fe54ab4.jpg

GFS Wind gust chart for Thursday.. 👇

18_90_windvector_gust.thumb.png.df8130c6825fdb6fea9f403a42c2b993.png

18_93_windvector_gust.thumb.png.cbd1ab0dac8cfa5d6fc7a015a7bc3ed0.png

The weekend still looking very unsettled with the possibility of a deep low pressure system which was shown yesterday to still push southeast through or close to the UK into the north sea around the 8th or 9th with very windy weather and bands of rain sweeping through.. 

Gfs.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_156.thumb.jpg.8eba16a543878d9e69afa1bf21c3b10b.jpg

864141060_EUROPE_PRMSL_168(2).thumb.jpg.7dca9ea2e6165e2665e65d01a953d9fc.jpg

2132554199_EUROPE_PRMSL_174(1).thumb.jpg.0da65d2afa2c8a6a5d9c2eb568c24fb0.jpg

Gem.. 👇

353027034_EUROPE_PRMSL_186(2).thumb.jpg.b892502835689143ba8ed81fc16ca57f.jpg

It isn't likely to be particularly mild either and indeed the ECM has more in the way of wintriness to the showers come the weekend on a brisk northwesterly flow. Into next week most models keep things unsettled and rather cold upto atleast days 9/10.. 

GFS.. 

32823593_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(1).thumb.jpg.9238a1559a7408336e99d0d2e0c24eb0.jpg

Wet and very windy but a mild south-westerly for a time. 

Gem.. 

1245321596_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(2).thumb.jpg.fe226d011602560a49b8f45cb1cc60c4.jpg

Unsettled but rather cold with a long fetch northwesterly wind. 

Putting the Ecmwf Gem and Gfs output together it paints an unsettled picture with spells of rain and potentially stormy weather if any lows form in the flow early next week.. 

59185608_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(3).thumb.jpg.96f27ac36c6dfb97c47f7f8090395c96.jpg

Another look at the jet stream forecast from the gfs for early and mid next week.. 

1196633456_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_204(1).thumb.jpg.5532176ecd352b70028ede1738438cc1.jpg

742279708_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_156(1).thumb.jpg.a5c71386f0d17e37ea2794f49d71b35c.jpg

A strong jet stream shown with the potential for a few deep lows moving close to or over the UK bringing perhaps a stormier period after the weekend, but still a ways out and will be keeping a close eye on this in the coming days. 👍

,, 👆Great anylis as usual But do you like the rain by any chance 🤔 I beg to differ 😉

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Eye candy going to start to be shown again on GFS Arctic high back in the game this morning.

gfsnh-0-210.png

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Eye candy going to start to be shown again on GFS Arctic high back in the game this morning.

gfsnh-0-210.png

Going to be an epic FI I reckon 

F38479C3-0B1A-4692-8443-0E2E76CF2C5F.png

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What a chart, I imagine under any snow cover there would be night temps well below -10 here. 

176DDF73-5CF1-49DC-9C9D-09E1D3314774.png

Edited by Ali1977

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What a chart, I imagine under any snow cover there would be night night temps well below -10 here. 

176DDF73-5CF1-49DC-9C9D-09E1D3314774.png

Yes T2Ms showing -10c for Central Scotland with -6 maxima

3429C4AD-005A-4F37-AD9B-606757A56FB0.thumb.png.be4caf038285ed4814497796cb6bc4e4.png

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But the temporary resurgence of the ridge is soon swept aside and after a transient ridge on Saturday the next frontal system sweeps through bringing some heavy rain and strong winds follower by waves forming on the front.

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5763200.thumb.png.d2b7f0a4da35d02e69bc24496f65deb4.png144.thumb.png.58ae77ca71232d8435aa997e6978680c.png168.thumb.png.43a4c0af7b3847bd6b7b24c060c01c5b.png

And quickly followed by another system driven east on the jet but considering the somewhat weird upstream amplification best left here.  All according to the gfs

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-5936000.thumb.png.e2ec014d469ae4d33062f3d3fe498b3a.png192.thumb.png.26863d61b4d78621c499630b0215ed04.png

 

Edited by knocker

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By now I suspect everyone is familiar with NH pattern vis the ext anomalies and there is little change with the GEFS this morning

Still the Aleutian trough/ridge/vortex combination upstream with a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic to the trough north of the UK and a negatively anomalous Europe

Thus unsettled with temps varying around the average but with the usual caveats regarding day to day and regional variations of the detail as systems track east, and which is of course where the det runs come in

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.4a1f9807e1abf4554e20a159aefe2681.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.e012d920afce3465b68c166a66fc2ad4.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.6f7d67970f4c6c2ed5778e1d468bce22.png

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The ecm for the beginning of next week

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5914400.thumb.png.337529c0ac8a6a33658dda88327ead7d.png150.thumb.png.6c5973fe00714f0784b0060d7e749fd3.png168.thumb.png.b6396ba98f3d3da3ddda744c15006edf.png192.thumb.png.6227623221c91a96ff0c18f53a9556c7.png

Edited by knocker

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I like these examples of where we maybe heading. Gfs quicker than ecm but going down a similar route. IF we can get near to this then some fun down line but can we get to this point? Or something similar. Output at the start of this winter has been and is fascinating. 👍

Beautiful crisp morning. 👌

131D1C9D-454F-44BD-BFAE-26D45B8E59FE.png

FE54A755-7A50-4162-ACA7-FE6A6CB3C9D6.png

5A95DDAE-6C90-4513-B4CF-933ED73BE336.jpeg

Edited by That ECM

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1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Would you believe this? Election Day could be snow chaos. Okay maybe that's an exaggeration and it's still 10 days away but this keeps popping up in the runs.

2057706783_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_07_50.thumb.png.2175579b2a92e756dfe95a7b58098a77.png

247881981_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_08_12.thumb.png.66a5222c0a8d553292e46034973f9e9f.png

1849235746_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_08_37.thumb.png.fc6b2b9802f98f18d803ab4e9466510d.png

2071838835_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_08_44.thumb.png.daaa86cc0c2b1107d7e5ca84c18bb7cd.png

48322697_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_09_10.thumb.png.2c843e2d9e8e5d2db9cfe185c07b7817.png

1992732276_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_09_18.thumb.png.bc3def2d6d56c208644e76108601f566.png

 

Yes what a terribly ironic twist of fate. The only day we really don't want to see widespread snow. I was hoping for a cool, clear and frosty election with minimal disruption so everyone can get out and vote safely. Perils of having a December election I guess... 

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No real change since Friday when I was reasonably confident of the overall medium range long-wave pattern. The cooler weather followed by some quasi-zonal spell till about T120 when we see ripples of mini-ridges in the westerly flow. These may or may not send warmth to higher latitudes for wedges to form. At the same time we have the trop vortex to our NW restocked from the NH upper flow allowing the vortex chunk to slide SE into the sc/euro trough.

The models are chopping and changing the energy in the NH so each run varies on this theme. On the 0z op run (little support on GEFS) we have better wedges from the Atlantic mini-ridges and a better Pacific ridge that enables that Pa/wedge to direct over the Arctic region. We seem to be getting the best case scenario again on the 0z run from the GFS. No doubt it will be different again until that eureka moment when it all fits into place.

D0-D8anim_xos9.gif D9-D16anim_wyh4.gif

So we are still in with a chance of getting cold from this upcoming pattern change if it verifies. But all sorts of shades of that remain possible so a case of wait and see. ECM also cycling through the possible scenarios inter-runs so also waiting for consistency there.

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I will keep the waffle vis the ext EPS mean anomaly this morning to a minimum because it's getting repetitive and boring. Suffice it to say a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic to a negatively anomalous Europe, particularly the UK with the trough to the north east of the latter, Portending unsettled with temps below average but with the usual caveats

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.80097866fc0c0f386ed8db0c9ce0dc9b.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.13da379b81bb23a6ef77a473bb646aa8.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6432800.thumb.png.200eb27203392729e731d7b470be9d20.png

Edited by knocker

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3 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

What a chart, I imagine under any snow cover there would be night temps well below -10 here. 

176DDF73-5CF1-49DC-9C9D-09E1D3314774.png

Could you please say what date these images are for if you're using a phone and are only going to use screenshots? Whilst it says December it could be any day between now and the 18th

Phone users can also tap and hold the image for a few seconds which allows you can save it to your phone and upload the entire chart

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