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Model output discussion - late November

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13 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext GEF mean anomaly does not develop any meaningful ridging into Greenland

Yes the last few runs have been a lot flatter, Interesting to find out whether the EPS follow suite.

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47 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes the last few runs have been a lot flatter, Interesting to find out whether the EPS follow suite.

T192 gfs and ecm. Fi begins at t120-t144. 

 

Edit t240  ecm may answer your question. 😩🤢

CF1B9FA6-D709-4EFD-90D0-23BCA0E33E52.jpeg

D0F07BB4-DDEC-4DFD-B78D-362BF5BAF31B.jpeg

5A56EFD4-B867-4E1A-9F6E-367A6B41D958.jpeg

Edited by That ECM

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A Frosty start to the day for northern areas with wintry showers for northern and Eastern coastal areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland these will continue but for the far south it is a fairly cloudy start this is associated with the remnants of yesterday's low which has kept things frost free here to begin the day, there has also been some rain, sleet and snow showers for parts of northeast England overnight some quite heavy too which have come a fair way inland, these will turn lighter and fewer here.. a few light showers for central areas too Through the morning but these fade and many areas stay dry the cloud should break for the far south during the morning.. during the afternoon into this evening a line of showery rain may effect east anglia and the southeast giving a millimetre or two.

Feeling cold today for all with some parts of Scotland remaining around freezing all day. 

Hirlam.. 👇

00_12_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.cea5b46fe235f703d5a79dc253065327.png

00_17_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.44ede630e210cc2f5ba170481d472666.png

00_19_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.77cfb49c3e6bdc18d0fecf108eebd7e7.png

Any left over showery rain for east anglia and southeast England fades away overnight with a frost quickly forming in the north then the south later on but some mostly light and patchy rain likely for northern Scotland later in the night. 

Edited by jordan smith

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A very zonal outlook  with only brief ridges giving the chance of snow over the Scottish mountains. 

Not much cheer for coldies. 

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So the fluid nature of the tPV means that changes in forces up and downstream can change a pattern. On the 0z run we have a chunk of PV migrate to our north from the NW to our NE (D2-D6). Previously it continued on its merry way to Siberia but with the Russian ridge connecting with the Arctic high that route redirects back to our NW(D6-D10):

anim_xei9.gif

The long and short is that chances for any heights above mid-lat are overwhelmed by this chunk cycling to our north. ECM very much in line with this phasing.

The GFS op after D10 maintains that NW to SE zonal flow, building the euro trough. A good cluster of GEFS supporting this, but no done deal and I will expect the op in the coming week to show many variances of that theme assuming it will verify. Disappointingly the lack of wedges due to the tPV changes means getting a colder upper flow from the N/NE to get better e/trough cold pooling is not showing up. This is all in FI and the usual caveats and disclaimers, as the machinations of background workings may change things by then. 

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EC mean trending colder by days 9 and 10 this morning but not sure anyone other than hill dwellers up north will benefit too much from essentially a PM setup.

Could be a lot worse but little sign of any high lat blocking to bring about a deep uppers cold spell..

Its lovely and seasonal at the moment so im thankful of that ..

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The general expectation that we see lee northerlies which may come to a decent effort around 9/10/11 dec followed by a potential slider which depends on many factors ......

thereafter a coolish trough nw Europe and current direction of travel is that trough retrogressing into the Atlantic which is not what coldies want to hear unless it pre empts a proper rise in heights to our east ........

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The general expectation that we see lee northerlies which may come to a decent effort around 9/10/11 dec followed by a potential slider which depends on many factors ......

thereafter a coolish trough nw Europe and current direction of travel is that trough retrogressing into the Atlantic which is not what coldies want to hear unless it pre empts a proper rise in heights to our east ........

Yup, there seems to be scope for a brief colder shot election week Blue.What we absolutely do not want to see is everything flatten out thereafter.

As you say, without some kind of blocking high or wedge of heights to direct traffic into Europe eventually the northern arm will take over.

 

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Well, the scrag-end of the 00Z GFS wouldn't be too bad now, would it? The biggest problem I see is that the broadscale pattern (Azores HP pulling westward + a Scandinavian LP) is rarely depicted to occur much before the very end of the run...?🤔

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

The 00Z GEFS ensembles do add support; but even that oughtn't be taken too seriously, what with all the variables/unknowns involved?

 t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

 t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Potential it seems, is a very moveable feast!:santa-emoji:

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

Looks like David Gray can go on hold for another few hours.

B5854348-15D4-476C-A962-57A057A6D605.thumb.png.56e2d891b1acf5216e5de26f80d35501.png

Really need that Arctic high to show it's face again really liked what it was showing just a few days ago for the sametime.

 

gfsnh-0-264.png

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Really need that Arctic high to show it's face again really liked what it was showing just a few days ago for the sametime.

 

gfsnh-0-264.png

Agreed. The arctic high is trying to get south on this run. Scandinavia this time:

image.thumb.png.99dec5bddfecf92f14acfdd417bb346b.png

Seems to be a trend away from it impacting us though, over the last 24 hours. Which is a shame

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Lows starting to slip and slide SE. Can a Scandi block emerge? If so we could all be slipping and sliding in ice and snow

image.thumb.png.0a7a9960ba9362b3854391a5aff795b4.png

 

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Hi. I could be talking complete rubbish but is it possible the models are picking up on the fact the zonal winds are having a increase and then this is being reflected in the output??

0784AFCA-9BC1-4B7C-BA1B-63D4444548AD.jpeg

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Looks like the pattern change form horse for the beginning of December,is a week ridge to our west and

low pressure tracking over the top from the northwest to northeast of us.leaving us in cold north to north west 

winds.Not a bad solution for early December,with always the chance of the gold card treatment of pressure rising 

to the north.

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32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Looks like David Gray can go on hold for another few hours.

B5854348-15D4-476C-A962-57A057A6D605.thumb.png.56e2d891b1acf5216e5de26f80d35501.png

Hi Steve. Look forward to your inputs as always. Just one small matter. On the image we can’t see the date or what GEFS member it is sometimes. If you long hold the image and save, then upload we can see the full image. Apologies if you already know this. I think Ali sometimes posts the same as you. Not a big deal but hey ho

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4 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Hi Steve. Look forward to your inputs as always. Just one small matter. On the image we can’t see the date or what GEFS member it is sometimes. If you long hold the image and save, then upload we can see the full image. Apologies if you already know this. I think Ali sometimes posts the same as you. Not a big deal but hey ho

186hr op run 6z.

Edited by booferking

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