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Model output discussion - late November

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1 minute ago, Griff said:

So let me get this right, ECM similar (closer at least) to GFS this morning... A little bewildering for the newcomer... 

Yes, I think so, and weirdly was just editing my previous post to suggest similar to GFS 0z, when you posted that!  So it is definitely a solution that is in the mix, but so too are others given the uncertainty at that day 10 range.

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Just having a scroll through the lesser models to see if they had anything that could be brought to bear on making predictions as to the start of winter, they didn't, well except maybe COAMPS, which paints a gloomy picture of the forthcoming season, here at just T12:

image.thumb.jpg.17d2483df493f1350dcc296d30a46dca.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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30 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I here this year in year out but still I see no proof ? Not saying it doesn’t but ...... 

Over amplifies over this area and never seems to pick up on short wave spoilers which usually emerge first in GFS.

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I'm not too convinced by the ECM or GFS even though the last few days it had maintained a trend of as late like most of the time expect a half way house 

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46 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

The Arctic High is a myth...It never EVER has produced cold for the Uk....The 12z gfs is prob about what were looking at this side of Xmas..Ecm always has amplified issues NW..Remember GFS models Greenland better than any model.

Not true I’m afraid. Whilst it is rare, it does happen.

Go and have a look at the Jan’87 cold spell. 

When it does get involved on our side of the hemisphere, things often happen.

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1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm not too convinced by the ECM or GFS even though the last few days it had maintained a trend of as late like most of the time expect a half way house 

I see what you are saying, but I don't see a half way house, going forward I absolutely see the same house but just at different times....on different models... 

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7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Over amplifies over this area and never seems to pick up on short wave spoilers which usually emerge first in GFS.

Totally agree with this..the shocker of the torpedo scuppered by a simple Iceland shortwave modeled first by the Gfs...The fallout is well...in Famous if you were here...

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20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Are you new to this weather lark Knocker? Is this normal for the UK in December? Is this just a slight northerly for 24hrs on the back of a normal zonal train of lows 🤷🏻‍♂️

BBB75C15-41AD-4A5E-90EA-4C3F1E79F69F.png

There is no change to the upcoming pattern, just cold zonal on a NW to SE axis, maybe leading to a euro trough sometime after D12. The ECM D10 is like the best case scenario for that time. The previous mini-ridge ejecting a wedge into higher-lats and the following mini-ridge linking up with the wedge. That is a clean solution that rarely happens. The GFS 12z throws all sorts of spoilers in the mix, and is another, maybe worse case cluster.

This appears to be a repeating pattern hopefully filling the trough. However, the big ask, is if this verifies, is then getting a cold pool into the trough for some interesting more seasonal weather. Looking at the tPV, I am not really seeing a high-lat blocked NH profile. So the UK within a cold euro trough maybe the best we can get out of this in the next 16 days.

Edited by IDO

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7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Now this on the ECM ensemble mean at T226 is a really strong signal:

image.thumb.jpg.785231e2dcbc9ed5f7fe2447442703d3.jpg

The clusters will be interesting tonight...

It is but the only thing guaranteed at the moment is a NW airstream with below average temps, whether we can get a really good snow event with a slider or genuine Arctic Northerly is still in question, i always say in these type setups is that it pays to look at the transition from frame to frame and how quick the lows move West to East, still though i have to say, a lot higher chance of a cold spell than i had originally thought.

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Earlier comments regarding the the structure and alignment of the European trough are quite well illustrated with tonight's ext EPS mean. Broady speaking it is not dissimilar to the GEFs but the ridge into east Greenland that has developed is more pronounced and thus the alignment of the European trough  This would also indicate that the northerly energy flow around the ridge would likely facilitate the advection of colder air into the UK and thus temps a tad below average. Continuing unsettled with the usual caveats vis systems tracking east.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6324800.thumb.png.73b374a5057ed2a9ec516101adef09e0.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-6324800.thumb.png.701ef3eeb005cbd7e420e2bda82bd1c0.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6324800.thumb.png.44a8cc821245eac01274303956b014bb.png

Alert

Apparently spoiler shortwaves have been spotted in the vicinity 😎

Haha - you did raise a chuckle up in Oldham mr Knocker !! 😄

You are correct of course,over the years i have lost count how many virtual cold spells have been derailed by a nasty little shortwave.

The EC det and mean look excellent at day 9 and 10 this evening, but will they look the same in 5 days time? 

Sorry to sound a doom monger but thrice bitten, really shy.

 

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29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I see what you are saying, but I don't see a half way house, going forward I absolutely see the same house but just at different times....on different models... 

Of course the ECM may be truly right but as we seen in many cases we trend to get something in the middle just like the current spell were in now 

I just think it's far too out and needs to be in the short term before we start to get a tad excited

But we shall see 🙂

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is but the only thing guaranteed at the moment is a NW airstream with below average temps, whether we can get a really good snow event with a slider or genuine Arctic Northerly is still in question, i always say in these type setups is that it pays to look at the transition from frame to frame and how quick the lows move West to East, still though i have to say, a lot higher chance of a cold spell than i had originally thought.

Yes, but maybe we are chasing different things, Feb, I think the bit in bold is what is on offer next three weeks or so but with some meridionality (yes, I know I've just made a word up now, D'oh!) more than usual around that, due princely (did I just use the word?!)  to the solar minimum, intermittent northerlies should follow, with opportunities for copious snow for some in battleground set ups, we hope.  For me the hard cold comes in the second half of winter...

Edited by Mike Poole

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Haha - you did raise a chuckle up in Oldham mr Knocker !! 😄

You are correct of course,over the years i have lost count how many virtual cold spells have been derailed by a nasty little shortwave.

The EC det and mean look excellent at day 9 and 10 this evening, but will they look the same in 5 days time? 

Sorry to sound a doom monger but thrice bitten, really shy.

 

That's a bit like saying. "can we please freeze a mobile pattern when it reaches the point in the evolution which is to our liking"

Oh wait.....................

NOAA in the same ball park as the EPS

814day_03.thumb.gif.61f08c959ebc635c9b95564331f0610d.gif

Edited by knocker

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10 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's a bit like saying. "can we please freeze a mobile pattern when it reaches the point in the evolution which is to our liking"

Oh i am a cold loving mild hating zealot at heart- i can't deny it.

No middle ground for me, 🙂

Anyway, we digress, the EC mean is a big upgrade for coldies so the clusters will be interesting this evening, although i attach much scepticism to them.

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh i am a cold loving mild hating zealot at heart- i can't deny it.

No middle ground for me, 🙂

Anyway, we digress, the EC mean is a big upgrade for coldies so the clusters will be interesting this evening, although i attach much scepticism to them.

 

Well that would a trifle difficult as you are a regular contributor to the zealots thread

cavorting.thumb.jpg.49ff0bf3257417739555b640fe4ff16a.jpg

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ECM tonight clearly shows the colder option, and what is important in my opinion is it does indeed do that as early as +192 

ECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.a61166990da0dedffb92a6dc2d34e286.png

Ridge to the West ready to work a bit of magic and eventually bring the cold in by the end

ECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.266c51d64a4c1dc6b070b5ff58854584.png

GFS 12 is clearly much less cold filled but at the same timeframe at +192 I don't think this one is a million trillion miles away from the ECM - we just need a bit more energy to our west

GFSOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.ba223c4470910707bd9030a735ca8dcd.png

 

I respect all comments regarding the GFS and it's better handling of these types of situations but ECM has also won over the years many times too. Had it been the other way around tonight with the GFS showing cold and ECM less so - I'm sure we'd all be mentioning how the ECM has often won over the years too

A proper old fashioned ECM Vs GFS it is at the moment and in my opinion there's little proof that the GFS will win in the same manner theres also little proof the ECM will win.

Something down the middle seems most plausible (that is a typical nice NW'ly perhaps)?

 

Either way sit tight.. it's all so interesting at the moment when often at this time of year I'm bored of some horrid looking charts. 🙂

For the record for what it's worth the GEM looks closer to the ECM solution but never quite gets as potent

GEMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.ac790178e5c4c7526b517f7018187424.png

Edited by StretfordEnd1996

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

A lot of one liners being posted this evening, with a lack of any explanation.. Please don't make me hit the hide button as it has been good up until now.

Cheers. 👍

Is there a "Hunt for Cold" going to be set up for Winter yet, maybe tomorrow being the first day of meteriological winter?! I know a lot of people really enjoyed it last year and it gave you Mods a break too, lol! 🙂

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