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Model output discussion - late November


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The possible trouble is ECMWF shows a rather different chart for a similar timescale

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

As does NOAA

I wonder which will be correct. At the time scales shown, quite often some kind of half way house is what the actual chart often ends up with?

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Using the 8th December marker we have anything but a simple flat flow across the Atlantic, and so while the general westerly dominance is going to bed in it is not looking like the residual heights ho

There's a lot of opinion being expressed in here about the performance of various models. I think if you are to criticise a model it is only fair your opinion is backed by facts to justify your remark

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........  

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

The possible trouble is ECMWF shows a rather different chart for a similar timescale

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

As does NOAA

I wonder which will be correct. At the time scales shown, quite often some kind of half way house is what the actual chart often ends up with?

Hence my comment about the amount of Atlantic ridging John.Not quite a like for like comparison if i may say so as the chart you posted is for a 3 day mean days 8-10 mine are a little further on and the ECM mean i posted is day 10 only.

Having said that though they are in the same ballpark with the trough to our east but it is that area out west  of +ve anomalies that has to be sorted.

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Some mouth watering ensembles from the GFS 6Z... If your of the cold persuasion that is... Lovely jubily. 

 

If only those charts were for tomorrow and the coming week!

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if you’re looking at specific detail then you’re right they probably aren’t worth looking at but surely it’s the overall trend that’s a cause for optimism at the moment?

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11 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

 No sign of a HP over Greenland with connection to the north atlantic at 240 hours now, really terrible would not be surprised if this is what will follow for the next runs typical GFS trolling model

Absolutely terrible run this yes - look over UK but more particularly over Scandinavia.

image.thumb.png.89c5d56a263b62e308d48eb5f82f1f00.png

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25 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Pattern getting flatter with every new GFS run,hopefully this is not the new trend,lack of comments will also tell you when a model run is poor !

The interest only starts after T288. This run is still a variance on the overall theme with a spoiler low off the US Eastern Seaboard, which may not be there on the next run:

gfseu-0-204.thumb.png.bdeb4de0e773cba7a92709d9754a95bd.png

With that Arctic High, the feed remains pro-UK, just the rest has to work! With the Pacific ridge failing a lot earlier and no wedges escaping to our north, it is far from perfect. However the cleansing of the Canadian vortex SE still is a clear signal despite GFS doing its worse with obstacles. D11:

57142426_gfsnh-0-264(4).thumb.png.7117c95acc32e20ee64b5203d4ab3a42.png

A cool regime after D8 remains the call with the potential for colder...

Edited by IDO
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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely terrible run this yes - look over UK but more particularly over Scandinavia.

image.thumb.png.89c5d56a263b62e308d48eb5f82f1f00.png

I'd rather have a quite long period with the average temperature below 0 and dry conditions so there will be some frost down in the soil, otherwise it will melt away directly when next mild period comes and the cold period will be short. 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are the models backing away from the Arctic high having as much influence ?..

Beginning to look that way.

 

It happens every year. The arctic high is over egged in the medium to long term. Lost count over the years how many times the arctic high is progged to ridge down in our vicinity but generally only makes it as far as Svalbard. 

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10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It happens every year. The arctic high is over egged in the medium to long term. Lost count over the years how many times the arctic high is progged to ridge down in our vicinity but generally only makes it as far as Svalbard. 

You've got more chance of seeing Elvis than the arctic high - as you said, it threatens an appearance every winter but then stops at around 75 degrees north. 

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2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

You've got more chance of seeing Elvis than the arctic high - as you said, it threatens an appearance every winter but then stops at around 75 degrees north. 

Ha ha ? . That gfs run seems to go against the latest AO forecast!

Screenshot_20191130-171017.png

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GFS 12z a bit underwhelming if you are hoping to see a progression toward more blocking before mid month but plenty more water to flow under the bridge yet before making assumptions either way.

 

graphe3_1000_257_87___.gif

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So, cold dry period, followed by milder interlude, followed by what, exactly?  Well we don't know, but a more northerly outlook seems likely, GEM 12z seems to bring this on a little faster than the other models so far, here T222:

image.thumb.jpg.2df89497b94d8404851a57ca9d44ebc9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.4a3abe09204943e60d271bd4c241ea67.jpg

Will be interesting to see if the ECM goes this way or another in an hour or so...

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z a bit underwhelming if you are hoping to see a progression toward more blocking before mid month but plenty more water to flow under the bridge yet before making assumptions either way.

 

graphe3_1000_257_87___.gif

As a newcomer (having lurked for a couple of winters), I'm curious to see how this flips back and forth over the next week as it has since last week. Lots of times I've seen people caution not to judge a trend on just one run, be it for the worst or better. I guess time will tell. 

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6 minutes ago, Griff said:

As a newcomer (having lurked for a couple of winters), I'm curious to see how this flips back and forth over the next week as it has since last week. Lots of times I've seen people caution not to judge a trend on just one run, be it for the worst or better. I guess time will tell. 

It’s absolutely all about trends over period of output runs.  It’s not so much that it’s been flipping, but pulling back from over playing some elements.  Nothing unusual in that to be honest, but it’s hard not to get excited when one or two runs appear to be delivering great synoptics! 

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UKMO latest produces a rather flat zonal run with waving cold front at 144t. Could be quite a bit of rain again ,especially in Scotland with a bit of hill snow in the far north at times. Southern England tuning milder by this time but looks dry and benign as does much of Euroland . Maybe, ECM will offer something more exciting for coldies.

C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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