Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - late November


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I’m not particularly excited for areas away from the n hills and the Scots until the period 11/13th when a mean northerly flow seems likely ...., it’s not clear to me how the mean trough will interact with the Azores ridge and therefore will we see continental flows ahead of disrupting troughs headed se or systems coming se too far to the east (Warm sectors) or simply being absorbed into a broad nw euro trough which may not be cold enough to bring anything other than cold rain away from elevation ......I also wouldn’t rule out a surprise rise of heights to our ene late week 2 ...... I know some gfs ops have been there but that’s not influenced my line of thought on that 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good morning, peeps!:santa-emoji:

Good to see that the jetstream is continuing to buckle: partly down to GSM, AA and WAA, over Eastern Europe, perhaps?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

But, whatever the causes, a continued cooldown has some support from the 00Z GEFS ensembles:

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

And, the Northern Hemisphere looks good at T+240: npsh500mean-240.png

 

 

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

GFS 00Z

The Heat

t2mCumbria.thumb.png.9c96c717514d5b47923dc9a84c82641f.pngukmaxtemp.thumb.png.4bdcb1252daf50b60b0f717ac79e8689.png 

127798_classic-kit-200_tcm18-99904.jpg.9953c89991a7c626de5c00794b305a27.jpg

The Flood

h500slp.thumb.png.86aa3ff220c96f9e876d26f1e0e8c76a.png

The Freeze?

kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.thumb.png.558979941792ec51659cc4bfbbd2b007.png

Transition to say the least - nothing too extreme apart from some potential rain totals Friday 6th Dec.

Hint of Scandi attack 11th.

edit: absolute belter of a thick winter frost up here yesterday and today.

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

06z is a smidge more amplified through 140-160 which is essentially we need-

Whats also appearing which was highlighted in the Scotland thread is a potentially very snowy period between about 144 & 168 ( more especially northern Scotland )

6CF3981C-3EE2-4CE3-B190-0CE8A3EA2F13.thumb.png.16c6ee4e3ea2614d068ce3e7c86a03ee.png

 

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06z is a smidge more amplified through 140-160 which is essentially we need-

Whats also appearing which was highlighted in the Scotland thread is a potentially very snowy period between about 144 & 168 ( more especially northern Scotland )

6CF3981C-3EE2-4CE3-B190-0CE8A3EA2F13.thumb.png.16c6ee4e3ea2614d068ce3e7c86a03ee.png

 

Watching this but could we sink this further sw over time maybe more could join in then when that next low slides fun and games could start early?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

It’s nice to have consistency and continuity from run to run.

4EC665B8-961F-4A94-BB6C-7BEB5E12071D.jpeg

CED3EDAA-339C-4129-B702-F36F04F76EC9.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Nice run this, think we will see repeated Arctic outbreaks during the month

GFS I think will show this on this run with each outbreak more potent, hopefully.

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, booferking said:

Watching this but could we sink this further sw over time maybe more could join in then when that next low slides fun and games could start early?

I think theres a bit more mileage there with corrections SW but only really to include the rest of Scotland --

GFS 06z a bit east by day 11 but general trend excellent.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think theres a bit more mileage there with corrections SW but only really to include the rest of Scotland --

GFS 06z a bit east by day 11 but general trend excellent.

ECM Day 8 is a massive outliner compared to the mean me thinks that low slides instead of balling ball scenario.

Taking that all in to account i believe cold starts day 7 for some and sinks slowly South overtime so some areas of the north locked in cold from day 7 onwards for quite sometime.

ECH1-192.gif

graphe_ens3.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Great posts as always on here from you guys... Not much to say thats not already been covered. The ECM mean after briefly trending warmer, becomes colder again, a smidgin colder than last night to.... The extended mean also shows the mean to be around - 3C  for a good part... So all in all we have positive signs moving forward. 

graphe_ens3 (7).png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
23 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Great posts as always on here from you guys... Not much to say thats not already been covered. The ECM mean after briefly trending warmer, becomes colder again, a smidgin colder than last night to.... The extended mean also shows the mean to be around - 3C  for a good part... So all in all we have positive signs moving forward. 

graphe_ens3 (7).png

I absolutely agree Matt, looking at the GEFS alone there's plenty of scope for Pm / Am cold shots beyond the current benign period with frosts & fog...I have a much better feeling about early winter compared to 12 months ago!!!!!!!!!!

Edited by JON SNOW
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
11 hours ago, Stevie B said:

I love your posts @tight isobar, so please don’t stop! Your not by chance posting in Polish and using Google translate are you?  Sorry mods. Back to the output! 

Quick answer..NO ..

My assumptions/analysis...likely seem that way MOST times..

Hay-ho...

That's just how it is .

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Good to see this northerly air stream being the dominant feature rather than our normal southwesterly.

A continuous signal from GFS and ECM.Low pressure dominates from our east northeast,need pressure 

to be high to west northwest the latter preferable.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

There's plenty of uncertainty/spread within today's 06Z GEFS ensembles, after December 7; a bunch of members spending time between -5 and -10C (T850) is counterbalanced by a similar collection being mainly between 0 and +5...?

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

At least it's not mild!:clapping::yahoo:

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I agree Ed (pete) that the 6z GEFS is choc full of wintry potential..just like the 0z!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

London 2m temperatures from the 00z ens going cold again later.

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.5b19562508843b3e92e539f3a8ce28d4.gif

A return of the north westerlies-Gefs pressure anomalies 3 day mean 10-12 December.ECM day 10 mean alongside.


pressure.thumb.png.349c40b57db60b3f03109852606647ef.pngEDH1-240.thumb.gif.6a40eae32c6891100a5bed904140e184.gif

Just an idea of the way the pattern looks like evolving after the milder interlude.A trough digging down through Scandinavia as shown on many runs now.The ridging to the west is key the more the better for a deeper cold flow from the Arctic.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The possible trouble is ECMWF shows a rather different chart for a similar timescale

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

As does NOAA

I wonder which will be correct. At the time scales shown, quite often some kind of half way house is what the actual chart often ends up with?

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

The possible trouble is ECMWF shows a rather different chart for a similar timescale

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

As does NOAA

I wonder which will be correct. At the time scales shown, quite often some kind of half way house is what the actual chart often ends up with?

Hence my comment about the amount of Atlantic ridging John.Not quite a like for like comparison if i may say so as the chart you posted is for a 3 day mean days 8-10 mine are a little further on and the ECM mean i posted is day 10 only.

Having said that though they are in the same ballpark with the trough to our east but it is that area out west  of +ve anomalies that has to be sorted.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...