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Model output discussion - late November

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21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Likely i am then...

 

Don't get me wrong. I've seen a lot worse. I'm sure you will agree. However, not feeling the increase in momentum. 

Screenshot_20191129-220121.png

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Aren’t the easiest charts in the solar system to interpret. However, both the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly charts from the NOAA continuing a similar theme - some higher than average heights out West/South-West in the mid and Western Atlantic, with lower than average heights to the North and North-East of the UK. Looks a fairly mobile Westerly pattern, which fits in with the increasingly Atlantic dominated setup the operational models show for later next week. 

The confidence perhaps low on the 8 to 14 day chart, but there seems like a good enough signal for some kind of upper Arctic High on the 6 to 10 day chart. (The 8 to 14 day chart does still show some positive anomalies within the Arctic area North of Greenland. Just nothing too strong). Could help deliver some interesting scenarios for the cold weather enthusiasts. 

Compared to the first chart, the second chart below (the 8 to 14 day one), shows somewhat more of a North-Westerly element to the mean upper flow over the UK. Looks like it would be more on the chilly side for the UK; Polar Maritime influence at times (which could lead to something more directly from the North - even if briefly) and troughing concentrated mostly over the Eastern Atlantic and towards Scandinavia. 

6 to 10 day mean

14E5BC98-2864-445D-BCB3-E264E752861E.thumb.gif.da87c21dd966f93238a843b11334e997.gif
 

8 to 14 day mean

8CB5C5EA-20DB-452D-B532-AEDFDFA25B96.thumb.gif.e60071f96db7a6383f3f03687792ba2e.gif

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I certainly think solar minimum is something to do with this Southerly tracking jet IF that continues well into December like it looks like at the minute.

Particularly when its progged at long range to move further North then doesn't as FI becomes the mid range.

It would certainly look this way. I wouldn't expect mainstream scientists to except this. 

But certainly looks like solar minimum running the pattern this year. Great seeing vortex going on holiday to siberian side. Qbo dropping like a stone. We might have to have few bites of the cherry before anything really sets in. But the nw se alinement certainly a promising feature so far. Jet stream definitely on a southerly track. 

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This looks like it is going to to go well, GFS T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8fd0c0076cc18348980ae7990b6b6f2e.jpg

Watch the warm air advection...from the low at the WSW...

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Just now, Mike Poole said:

This looks like it is going to to go well, GFS T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8fd0c0076cc18348980ae7990b6b6f2e.jpg

Watch the warm air advection...

 

When you posted that chart i wasn't actually that enthused, but you were right, 216 says its going to be an Arctic blast.

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

This looks like it is going to to go well, GFS T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8fd0c0076cc18348980ae7990b6b6f2e.jpg

Watch the warm air advection...

 

Yes Mike, looks like a decent end to the high res part of the run.  Pretty good consistency between GFS and ECM at 210 (GFS first), particularly re the splitting of the PV.  

image.thumb.png.7b3c090345a7e82c93a355125747f81b.pngimage.thumb.png.07291d2d048208e0612719eb0112a07f.png    

 

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Could even be a screaming NE or E flow here.

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And at T264, it really hits here:

image.thumb.jpg.53513d74ace127e17ed06da42bf67553.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7ad57e3bc7d43787746cc7c9ead7471f.jpg

Not sure there is power to add, but if I'm reading the runes right, we should be OK for an interesting season with wedges...

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

Remarkable day 10 agreement between GFS & ECM for NW Europe

 

Yes, seems very little room for error with that setup and would normally dismiss it, but this seems different, it is well supported, particularly amongst the op runs, what do you reckon the chances are of that coming off?

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And here comes the slider at 276.

image.thumb.png.d2d502c1d4b2a426d5a598c7173a61d5.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could even be a screaming NE or E flow here.

Given the optical  momentum/and on short Trop-pv via raw..(such as mentioned)...

It's certainly a primmed source for that craved Siberian spill and drop!!.

The upper layers are of wait and see after...I'm kicking myself saying this...as the latter is usually the notion...yet were already in front gaining!!!

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Now what's that saying again..... 'wedges build sledges'!?  Well if the 288 landed (which is unlikely in the extreme), looking quite wintery to say the least.

image.thumb.png.68f84782b538e8f4ec94339f664cc219.pngimage.thumb.png.d66abc833abb22dd0857726916772a6b.png 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And here comes the slider at 276.

image.thumb.png.d2d502c1d4b2a426d5a598c7173a61d5.png

Looks more like another upstream push at T288, Feb, this is what I'm saying, the year of the wedgie!

image.thumb.jpg.37f3ce9fb57295f76139b2fff4632b94.jpg

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Given the optical  momentum/and on short Trop-pv via raw..(such as mentioned)...

It's certainly a primmed source for that craved Siberian spill and drop!!.

The upper layers are of wait and see after...I'm kicking myself saying this...as the latter is usually the notion...yet were already in front gaining!!!

This is looking increasingly to me like a December that could go down as an average December CET wise but could end up with a monumental snow event, think 1990 or 2017.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, seems very little room for error with that setup and would normally dismiss it, but this seems different, it is well supported, particularly amongst the op runs, what do you reckon the chances are of that coming off?

30-40% ATM - pattern could be flatter so not clear yet. Needs to get to 144-168

Edited by Steve Murr
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And the formats. Are getting fluid...in wanting of gain...

As previously suggested!!

@cold..

@intresting

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_5.png

temp4 (12).png

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is looking increasingly to me like a December that could go down as an average December CET wise but could end up with a monumental snow event, think 1990 or 2017.

This is exactly what I think will happen, Feb, jet south but strong with some wriggle, and when impacting the UK at the right angle, big snow with cold air in situ for some. Going to to be some interesting watching in the next week or three I think!   And some knife edge situations for some too...bring it on!

Edited by Mike Poole
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And if it's repeating patterns that is the order of the day, but ever colder, pub run T336 justs illustrates the possibility beautifully:

image.thumb.jpg.fe56990a0bd975a824931772b3f2e0b5.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.71028ff076a4003afabef5319a8d5b89.jpg

But let's not get ahead of ourselves, hey?

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Tonight's 18z spins up this.

But before this at T+240 hrs or 10 days

We may have to encounter a  cool westerly air flow  .

Maybe we could  have a fair bit of cold snowy weather 

Or maybe a westerly flow for a bit longer 

I'd put this months wage on a cold snowy outlook. 

Massive model and data watching coming up

19120918_2918.gif

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The Control run is looking to up the ante at just 180.... another wedge in play.

image.thumb.png.6ef7c84f8bbea52d638372e973a8338b.png

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