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Model output discussion - late November

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes this type of chart whilst not exhibiting extreme Northern blocking is about as primed for snow in the UK as your ever going to get!

7C254E76-9903-445F-A45C-025FF734462E.thumb.jpeg.0eb7d028f18e1b95cd1c78bf9d7577f9.jpeg

Like that you mean😄😄😄 let’s count it down🤣

4639CD17-F32A-4434-964F-DEEC2DBEF191.jpeg

9EB3BD70-B876-4270-A9D6-1088B119DE10.jpeg

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pretty impressive blizzard raging over Dartmoor on this run at 3000 minutes or whatever it is 🏂

Imagine if  that sort of chart ever got to within 72hours lol

Edited by SLEETY
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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Like that you mean😄😄😄 let’s count it down🤣

4639CD17-F32A-4434-964F-DEEC2DBEF191.jpeg

9EB3BD70-B876-4270-A9D6-1088B119DE10.jpeg

She would be a cold one of that came off.:cold-emoji:and I'm ready 

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The GFS 12z is going to attract a lot of FI interest and comment. Here is a chart illustrating a watered down version of New Year's Eve 1978

image.thumb.png.b43e76fdef0571657f15764dfb11c31a.png

There is also some high pressure floating about in the arctic. Caution, as ever, needs to be applied but unsettled and cool/cold (from next weekend) is the trend now

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Both GFS and UKMO look pretty well aligned out to T144hrs showing the influence of the high starting to fade

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.1270bbf12966c6f3e3e18c70e92a9bfb.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.6582eea297c73a57617122bd13c20ad8.gif

so up until mid-week still quite cold with surface cold hanging on for most, but just signs of a change up north.

GFS Weds 15z just for an idea

850.thumb.png.dfbc44d0e1fa6caac6b5afba8b6dcf44.pngtemp.thumb.png.f15ada936e38723e8a4223f9a84358af.png

A nice little change to some bright,crisp and chilly weather with frosts for many. 

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1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

Both GFS and UKMO look pretty well aligned out to T144hrs showing the influence of the high starting to fade

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.1270bbf12966c6f3e3e18c70e92a9bfb.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.6582eea297c73a57617122bd13c20ad8.gif

so up until mid-week still quite cold with surface cold hanging on for most, but just signs of a change up north.

GFS Weds 15z just for an idea

850.thumb.png.dfbc44d0e1fa6caac6b5afba8b6dcf44.pngtemp.thumb.png.f15ada936e38723e8a4223f9a84358af.png

A nice little change to some bright,crisp and chilly weather with frosts for many. 

Will make for a pleasant feeling weekend and start to next week for most I'm sure. 🙂 Freezing fog tonight may prove tricky though for parts of England tomorrow morning. ❄️

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Some great signs in FI but it's before D10 in which we see some interesting signs - 

image.thumb.png.5d465f72ac0326d4a992406666e9ec1d.png

+219 shows HP trying to ridge to our west and this is ultimately what happens 

So interesting signs slowly but surely trying to move into the 'reliable' time frame - (though at this time of year I consider anything over +144 to be unreliable so I'm sort of contradicting myself here!)

It's the small signs prior to FI that interest me the most - (though yes there's some eye watering charts post D12)!!

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4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Will make for a pleasant feeling weekend and start to next week for most I'm sure. 🙂 Freezing fog tonight may prove tricky though for parts of England tomorrow morning. ❄️

Yes i could have put that in my post jordan.Certainly a risk could be very white on surfaces(hoar frost) in some spots.

Edited by phil nw.
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The high pressure to our west and low pressure to our northeast could be the up and coming pattern 

change,would prefer high pressure further north west but that can still happen,a mobile patten looks

the form horse with alternating north to north west incursions not bad for December.

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UKMO 144hr - packed with arctic high goodness

image.thumb.png.ac0e9c6c352e29c6a534b8ceee632a22.png

Will it fall into a position to benefit NW Europe?

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23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice to see the jetstream holidaying in Casablanca! 🍹

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

It can stay on its holiday to Morocco until early March if it likes!

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Plenty of narnia potential... Pardon the pun.....from the GFS ensembles, right out to mid December.... Could we at long last be about to see a winter month, that at least resembles winter!!! I make a toast to the first cold snap of the season... With hopefully many more to come... Cheers... 🍻

 

The control run is poor this evening though. There are a few ensemble members that aren't brilliant and return the purples to Greenland. However, in general, I think we're heading in a direction where we see N Ireland, NW and North Scotland, Western Scotland and NW England doing well (for snow) next month. And it ain't outside the realms of possibility that areas further south and east could also end up with wintry spells at times. No deep, deep freeze, as I've said before, but some wintry interest for sure

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D8 ECM and GFS not dissimilar as far as the major features, so reasonable continuity cross model and runs:

1765080742_ECH1-192(2).thumb.gif.040353f06585d2976778cd1386825d6a.gif1356707697_gfsnh-0-192(5).thumb.png.7d93b6dbc4c8404a62b4f1b33ffed415.png

ECM slightly more amplified, as it will at that range.

Maybe the next 12-14 days will be just a matter of ticking down those minutes?

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wow at last frame of ECM Like the day of tomorrow scenario arriving from the North Pole 🤣

ol

Could it every verify at that range for just once.

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Tonight's 12Z ensembles are nae bad; preety darned good, in North Yorkshire, in fact!:cold:

t850North~Yorkshire.png   prmslNorth~Yorkshire.png

t2mNorth~Yorkshire.png   prcpNorth~Yorkshire.png

As @Steve Murr said earlier (IF the pattern indicated by the GFS operational is like what actually happens, of course) you couldn't a better situation, for UK snow...Or, words to that effect!:santa-emoji:

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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

wow at last frame of ECM Like the day of tomorrow scenario arriving from the North Pole 🤣

ol

Could it every verify at that range for just once.

Yes, looking good ATM.

The ECM at D10, the ridge will topple, but better phasing and reach, topping up the warmth in high-lat and getting the very cold air closer to the UK than the GFS did.

The next wave from the Atlantic will be the one that fills the euro trough if it follows the GFS. With cold air in place that would be interesting on the ECM. We will have to see if it is up to its old tricks or it is reading the signal better?

I am usually pessimistic but on this occasion the glass is definitely half-full.

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, looking good ATM.

The ECM at D10, the ridge will topple, but better phasing and reach, topping up the warmth in high-lat and getting the very cold air closer to the UK than the GFS did.

The next wave from the Atlantic will be the one that fills the euro trough if it follows the GFS. With cold air in place that would be interesting on the ECM. We will have to see if it is up to its old tricks or it is reading the signal better?

I am usually pessimistic but on this occasion the glass is definitely half-full.

yes exactly.Look at how it over amplified everything recently and at one stage it looked like a prolonged cold spell was incoming with N E winds,but the trending to much colder weather in the long term,is still showing in the models,which is a good thing.

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Reliable timeframe, a cold dry period with lots of frost and fog, with high pressure overhead, slipping through the UK an eventually sinking away to the south, ushering a milder atlantic feed by Wednesday in the north, probably not until Thursday in the south.

Thereafter, interesting trends in the models today, perhaps signs of heights building over the Pole, a distressed PV moving towards Siberia. In the shorter-term an unsettled milder interlude, but then possibly something much colder and probably still unsettled, as heights ridge away to the west, and with a southerly tracking jet we are then exposed to a NW/N blast.. all along way off, but could be quite a topsy turvy first half to December, cold and frosty to start, milder and wet, then possibly cold and snowy...

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Too much pressure on the mid Atlantic ridge at 240h on the ECM 12z:

image.thumb.png.86d45b8742d556a72a2100e4e9e20b9f.png

Immaterial worrying about it at this stage though as it likely won't look precisely like that. The Alaskan and Atlantic ridge are pretty close to linking up (and that would probably mean locked in cold) but it won't happen with that low pressure just to the west of Greenland about to steamroll the pattern

Edited by LRD

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