Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - late November


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The GFS 12z is going to attract a lot of FI interest and comment. Here is a chart illustrating a watered down version of New Year's Eve 1978

image.thumb.png.b43e76fdef0571657f15764dfb11c31a.png

There is also some high pressure floating about in the arctic. Caution, as ever, needs to be applied but unsettled and cool/cold (from next weekend) is the trend now

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Both GFS and UKMO look pretty well aligned out to T144hrs showing the influence of the high starting to fade

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.1270bbf12966c6f3e3e18c70e92a9bfb.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.6582eea297c73a57617122bd13c20ad8.gif

so up until mid-week still quite cold with surface cold hanging on for most, but just signs of a change up north.

GFS Weds 15z just for an idea

850.thumb.png.dfbc44d0e1fa6caac6b5afba8b6dcf44.pngtemp.thumb.png.f15ada936e38723e8a4223f9a84358af.png

A nice little change to some bright,crisp and chilly weather with frosts for many. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

Both GFS and UKMO look pretty well aligned out to T144hrs showing the influence of the high starting to fade

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.1270bbf12966c6f3e3e18c70e92a9bfb.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.6582eea297c73a57617122bd13c20ad8.gif

so up until mid-week still quite cold with surface cold hanging on for most, but just signs of a change up north.

GFS Weds 15z just for an idea

850.thumb.png.dfbc44d0e1fa6caac6b5afba8b6dcf44.pngtemp.thumb.png.f15ada936e38723e8a4223f9a84358af.png

A nice little change to some bright,crisp and chilly weather with frosts for many. 

Will make for a pleasant feeling weekend and start to next week for most I'm sure. Freezing fog tonight may prove tricky though for parts of England tomorrow morning. ❄️

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Some great signs in FI but it's before D10 in which we see some interesting signs - 

image.thumb.png.5d465f72ac0326d4a992406666e9ec1d.png

+219 shows HP trying to ridge to our west and this is ultimately what happens 

So interesting signs slowly but surely trying to move into the 'reliable' time frame - (though at this time of year I consider anything over +144 to be unreliable so I'm sort of contradicting myself here!)

It's the small signs prior to FI that interest me the most - (though yes there's some eye watering charts post D12)!!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Will make for a pleasant feeling weekend and start to next week for most I'm sure. Freezing fog tonight may prove tricky though for parts of England tomorrow morning. ❄️

Yes i could have put that in my post jordan.Certainly a risk could be very white on surfaces(hoar frost) in some spots.

Edited by phil nw.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

The high pressure to our west and low pressure to our northeast could be the up and coming pattern 

change,would prefer high pressure further north west but that can still happen,a mobile patten looks

the form horse with alternating north to north west incursions not bad for December.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

UKMO 144hr - packed with arctic high goodness

image.thumb.png.ac0e9c6c352e29c6a534b8ceee632a22.png

Will it fall into a position to benefit NW Europe?

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice to see the jetstream holidaying in Casablanca! 

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

It can stay on its holiday to Morocco until early March if it likes!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Plenty of narnia potential... Pardon the pun.....from the GFS ensembles, right out to mid December.... Could we at long last be about to see a winter month, that at least resembles winter!!! I make a toast to the first cold snap of the season... With hopefully many more to come... Cheers...

 

The control run is poor this evening though. There are a few ensemble members that aren't brilliant and return the purples to Greenland. However, in general, I think we're heading in a direction where we see N Ireland, NW and North Scotland, Western Scotland and NW England doing well (for snow) next month. And it ain't outside the realms of possibility that areas further south and east could also end up with wintry spells at times. No deep, deep freeze, as I've said before, but some wintry interest for sure

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

D8 ECM and GFS not dissimilar as far as the major features, so reasonable continuity cross model and runs:

1765080742_ECH1-192(2).thumb.gif.040353f06585d2976778cd1386825d6a.gif1356707697_gfsnh-0-192(5).thumb.png.7d93b6dbc4c8404a62b4f1b33ffed415.png

ECM slightly more amplified, as it will at that range.

Maybe the next 12-14 days will be just a matter of ticking down those minutes?

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

wow at last frame of ECM Like the day of tomorrow scenario arriving from the North Pole 

ol

Could it every verify at that range for just once.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Tonight's 12Z ensembles are nae bad; preety darned good, in North Yorkshire, in fact!:cold:

t850North~Yorkshire.png   prmslNorth~Yorkshire.png

t2mNorth~Yorkshire.png   prcpNorth~Yorkshire.png

As @Steve Murr said earlier (IF the pattern indicated by the GFS operational is like what actually happens, of course) you couldn't a better situation, for UK snow...Or, words to that effect!:santa-emoji:

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

wow at last frame of ECM Like the day of tomorrow scenario arriving from the North Pole 

ol

Could it every verify at that range for just once.

Yes, looking good ATM.

The ECM at D10, the ridge will topple, but better phasing and reach, topping up the warmth in high-lat and getting the very cold air closer to the UK than the GFS did.

The next wave from the Atlantic will be the one that fills the euro trough if it follows the GFS. With cold air in place that would be interesting on the ECM. We will have to see if it is up to its old tricks or it is reading the signal better?

I am usually pessimistic but on this occasion the glass is definitely half-full.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, looking good ATM.

The ECM at D10, the ridge will topple, but better phasing and reach, topping up the warmth in high-lat and getting the very cold air closer to the UK than the GFS did.

The next wave from the Atlantic will be the one that fills the euro trough if it follows the GFS. With cold air in place that would be interesting on the ECM. We will have to see if it is up to its old tricks or it is reading the signal better?

I am usually pessimistic but on this occasion the glass is definitely half-full.

yes exactly.Look at how it over amplified everything recently and at one stage it looked like a prolonged cold spell was incoming with N E winds,but the trending to much colder weather in the long term,is still showing in the models,which is a good thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Reliable timeframe, a cold dry period with lots of frost and fog, with high pressure overhead, slipping through the UK an eventually sinking away to the south, ushering a milder atlantic feed by Wednesday in the north, probably not until Thursday in the south.

Thereafter, interesting trends in the models today, perhaps signs of heights building over the Pole, a distressed PV moving towards Siberia. In the shorter-term an unsettled milder interlude, but then possibly something much colder and probably still unsettled, as heights ridge away to the west, and with a southerly tracking jet we are then exposed to a NW/N blast.. all along way off, but could be quite a topsy turvy first half to December, cold and frosty to start, milder and wet, then possibly cold and snowy...

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Too much pressure on the mid Atlantic ridge at 240h on the ECM 12z:

image.thumb.png.86d45b8742d556a72a2100e4e9e20b9f.png

Immaterial worrying about it at this stage though as it likely won't look precisely like that. The Alaskan and Atlantic ridge are pretty close to linking up (and that would probably mean locked in cold) but it won't happen with that low pressure just to the west of Greenland about to steamroll the pattern

Edited by LRD
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

I do hope the ecm and the GFS chart come to fruition I don’t really get excited that far out how ever I am more in courage with the model runs today after looking also at the update from Exeter for mid to late December though the confidence is low. ☺️

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...