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Paul

Model output discussion - late November

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Could those Atlantic heights go NNE? Not much stopping it to the NE, depends if the PV to the NW bullies it out the way!!

A942FF59-194D-4896-B914-D63724FF192B.png

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And whilst on this subject a good example of why 850mb temps correlate to nowt in a November anticyclone

index.thumb.png.24abcc50d5cb51bf8c6c1298c191135b.png

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

And this is why I'm reluctant to post in this thread. I was in no way trying to 'shoot down' anyone but merely politely trying to point out why this is misleading. It is a shame if one cannot do that. And for the record I do not put myself up as one of the more knowledgeable people on this thread, unlike quite a few others.

I’d go with ‘milder blip’ too quite frankly.

You didn’t explain why it might be misleading, you just posted a few charts. 

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4 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I’d go with ‘milder blip’ too quite frankly.

You didn’t explain why it might be misleading, you just posted a few charts. 

Those charts (and subsequent Skew-T) are self explanatory, surely?

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8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

That mean is coming down around the 10th>

this was predicted 4 days ago with an average spell after this weekend

graphe3_1000_261_26___.thumb.png.0b94b646b1ef363068efe0184270bd74.png

now look how short lived that average spell has shortened drastically.

graphe3_1000_266_32___.thumb.png.5ca7ef3917decce6f85153f3d71de3f7.png

 

 

The milder blip comment was I relation to this and where we were. I think it’s perfectly acceptable 

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Knocker at this time of year which I call the silly season people go slightly mad lol.  After many years sitting skimming through posts on this thread I have to say there are still many IMBY posters.  You are not one of those and I agree with a lot of your posts. 

Keep up the good work

Sorry mods if off toppic

The GFS picked up a signal for colder weather and below average temps for around the 10th of this month last week. 

The date keeps moving but in general us in the SE are set to get colder after the 10th

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1 hour ago, West is Best said:

No doubt the GFS has been gradually pivoting to a cold spell a week from now. It will be very interesting to see if this intensifies.

Meanwhile, just for fun, here's the snow risk for Election Day ☺️❄️

1089857818_Screenshot2019-11-29at06_04_30.thumb.png.6d65e80d1948768e31228d53ccbb766e.png

No voting in Devon and Cornwall and the NE then?  😃

 

BFTP

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Models have been hinting at a northerly in the 8-10th Dec timeframe over last few runs, still too far away to pin ones hopes on it occuring, but the 00z EPS 500mb mean this morning looks more encouraging for this to occur than the 00z GEFS 500mb mean - which has a weaker Atlantic ridging signal.

00z EPS T240

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.4af73655306d7f9d724af043f33c495b.png

00z GEFS T240

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.37ee7cd9f3a39285190c6475a67bede1.png

Like the look of the arctic ridge separating the trop vortices over Scandi, Canada and Bering Sea on 00z EPS mean.

 

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12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No voting in Devon and Cornwall and the NE then?  😃

 

BFTP

Looking at the Precipitation chart for that Image, it just shows a very week front fizzling out , as it moves south , so wouldn't expect much Snow in that situation .... 

Temps for next 6 days away from the far South look to get no higher that 5.degrees , so I would class that as a Cold week coming up .  

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Models have been hinting at a northerly in the 8-10th Dec timeframe over last few runs, still too far away to pin ones hopes on it occuring, but the 00z EPS 500mb mean this morning looks more encouraging for this to occur than the 00z GEFS 500mb mean - which has a weaker Atlantic ridging signal.

00z EPS T240

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.4af73655306d7f9d724af043f33c495b.png

00z GEFS T240

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.37ee7cd9f3a39285190c6475a67bede1.png

Like the look of the arctic ridge separating the trop vortices over Scandi, Canada and Bering Sea on 00z EPS mean.

 

Yes @Nick F, I am liking the trend on this morning EPS, for my location(Slovakia) the max. T2M mean is hovering around 0C in latter frames days 12-15, mild clusters in minority, this to me suggests a progressively meridional pattern in Europe with some sort of through diving at lest to some other parts of Europe then Scandinavia, so no usual zonal pattern hopefully. 

poprad.PNG

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30 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would have thought the charts, which show the max temps through the middle of next week, obviously show that the southern half of the UK is way below average/ The higher temps in the north are due to the surface analysis which is why I posted the surface chart.

I posted the sounding to illustrate why using 850mb temps can be misleading in Autumn anticyclones, or anywhere for that matter, a subject which I have covered in more detail in the past

I've absolutely no idea why people are getting uptight just because I was trying to be helpful and point out an aspect of basic meteorology.

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_anom-5482400.thumb.png.84f72fe8a9d9a74b3a67dae8ace79800.png

 

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Comparing the 0z today and yesterday, some consistency with the GFS runs (D10):

Today> 1059564776_gfsnh-0-240(9).thumb.png.bbaab2e515efa6f7d527c9b1bc3a0c21.pngYesterday> 1415700335_gfsnh-0-264(3).thumb.png.61d4949b8becfc6f17fe75f651d9509a.png

Variations on a theme so steady as we go.

The GEFS are a work in progress with about 30% support for the op with all sorts of solutions within the 70%. The control is a flatter outcome. With ECM in the same ball park, cold to mid-lats in the W Europe region remains a viable pattern around D10.

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Both ecm and gfs showing high pressure to our west northwest and low pressure to our east northeast in nine

to ten day range.Arctic northerlies following,cold to very cold on the cards for all very promising for a wintery 

outlook.

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Some overall model agreement for this time next week regarding the winter view .  Fluidity finally removing cold surface air from Southern Britain.  However, a straight forward picture  to advance that cold front through the British Isles could be delayed  by a Mid- Atlantic Wave. Again all the models dissipate the West Russian trough very quickly after 144t  and the West Med Low circulation.  I am not convinced this will be the picture for this time next week. Again our teams thinking is for the Russian high there at 120t not to readily collapse against a forecast increased zonal upper flow and some thought could link the high poleward. Maybe, they will have to correct but just reporting on their latest prognosis.

 C

overview_20191129_00_168.jpg

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Today's 00Z GEFS ensembles show mixed potential, and does the GFS operational have any support?

t850Leicestershire.png   prmslLeicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

And, going by its near outlier status, I won't be taking it at all seriously. Certainly not yet, anyway!

Neither do the perturbations at T+336 don't lend much support?

slp-330.png npsh500mean-330.png

Anywho, it's 06Z time!:yahoo:

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😬 

Mild blip aside ( i got knockers point) it does look like being quite chilly through the first half of Dec, against the thoughts of many professionals maybe!! The last few weeks of Dec are the important ones, longer nights , a colder Europe and an upcoming Xmas!! Looking fwd to what pans out!! 
let’s see what the 06z shows 

5DF14052-A822-46BE-9C38-E898453C6582.jpeg

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Now that's a COLD HIGH!!..there's a lot to like about the Gfs 0z operational and indeed other output so far today if you're a COLDIE!!👍😜🥶

00_372_mslp500.thumb.png.0618abf98a56eef7f03ce6ec7a7467c3.png00_372_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.c367a0fdb3d69127b5c45bccf9c6bb6b.png00_372_mslp850.thumb.png.f4d47ecf037a387a53f4f93443b9cf4f.png

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Positive trend is maintained on the 00z runs for coldies.

Im going to enjoy the cold high for now and hope we see the Arctic high have enough influence down the line.

All eyes on Exeter updates to see any subtle shifts 

..

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Looking at the comments this morning the weather forums came up with the most annoying term with what knocker is referring to 'faux cold !!'

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