Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - late November

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Potential vortex shredder incoming, GFS T228:

image.thumb.jpg.2716b1902f0c952c5dba15205fc4bbb7.jpg

Yep it’s starting to weaken all over 

 

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dont think we are going to make it this time, don;t like the tilt on the Newfoundland low.

That low gets complicated pretty quickly, something looks like happening around day 10 with the PV weakening looking like  a decent bet at the minute , after that 🤷🏼‍♂️

20FDBEB4-47BC-4267-9595-3AA751D76752.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keeping an eye on the tracks of low pressure from west to east is the key to every door.

Regarding cold or mild winters in this country of ours.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hang on though, a shortwave has just developed at the base of that aforementioned troughing - WAA inbound.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hang on though, a shortwave has just developed at the base of that aforementioned troughing - WAA inbound.

The troughing across Europe is working wonders- i'm starting to think this write off Dec might not be a right off afterall...

image.thumb.png.25d87890f8438f13a9b8a939dcfd2aea.png

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dry as a bone, where is any convection going to come from in Stafford on that chart?, right near a high and no cold in the mid levels.

I guess at most, there could be a few odd, possibly isolated, wintry showers towards the South-East and East of the UK on that chart, before the pressure becomes a bit too influential from the West. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T276:

image.thumb.jpg.4f89e76b99321489adaac8e66152331f.jpg

What happens next??

Wait for more amplification because the vortex to the nw will just keep barreling around unless we have help from most of the background signals imo. Look at the deep red hp to our sw.

For a Nao neg, that's gonna take some shifting. 

Edited by joggs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T276:

image.thumb.jpg.4f89e76b99321489adaac8e66152331f.jpg

What happens next??

Well I wasn't predicting quite this, T312, but (extreme) FI should be interesting on this run:

image.thumb.jpg.ce2b653042961ca3bc2620955df9d603.jpg

Major vortex removal from the danger area.  But refer back to my longer post earlier with the GEFS, the uncertainty in the way the vortex could be mangled is large, but at least it's odds on mangled at T312...

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

I guess at most, there could be a few odd, possibly isolated, wintry showers towards the South-East and East of the UK on that chart, before the pressure becomes a bit too influential from the West. 

Yes, certainly zip in stafford, not necessarily wall to wall sunshine enough to satisfy Atlantic 252 and certainly not warm enough though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The troughing across Europe is working wonders- i'm starting to think this write off Dec might not be a right off afterall...

image.thumb.png.25d87890f8438f13a9b8a939dcfd2aea.png

Why would you think that it’s a write off?

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, joggs said:

Wait for more amplification because the vortex to the nw will just keep barreling around unless we have help from most of the background signals imo. Look at the deep red hp to our sw.

For a Nao neg, that's gonna take some shifting. 

It will just take low pressure, trough to sink into Europe and it will have to move aside, as it has done several times recently!  The Azores high reacts to what is going on, not dictates it in my view?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Why would you think that it’s a write off?

 

BFTP

I didn't say i did, but BBC/Exeter seem to think it will be, broadly speaking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That vortex shredder I was on about, GFS T372:

image.thumb.jpg.436bc121b2c7d50c9fc4931e22c2595e.jpg

Does this not look just like Davros's head (creator of the Daleks). If so the vortex is in deep trouble.  No cold joy yet, but from here it could only be a matter of time.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That vortex shredder I was on about, GFS T372:

image.thumb.jpg.436bc121b2c7d50c9fc4931e22c2595e.jpg

Does this not look just like Davros's head (creator of the Daleks). If so the vortex is in deep trouble.  No cold joy yet, but from here it could only be a matter of time.

Thought you meant Stav Danaos then but then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is potentially very good news with the latest AAM plots...

AAM predicted to rise..

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There is potentially very good news with the latest AAM plots...

AAM predicted to rise..

Its the red line thats most important, but AAM rise is usually the lead up to it,

The MJO into the Indian Ocean could be a trigger for an EAMT i would have thought.

image.thumb.png.105b968c537fb65a0318d44a50f82155.png

we want phase 4 at reasonable amplitude then we want it to carry on its merry way maintaining amplitude.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best set of GFS ensembles for a while with a few more thinking about an Atlantic ridge 2nd week of Dec

graphe3_1000_267_87___.gif

 

P2 is the only one that really looks sustained though, very nice.

gensnh-2-1-324.png

Also ECM ensembles interesting in that the cold stragglers get more support as we move through 2nd week of Dec

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS ensembles are in general agreement of cold upper air temperatures until early next week then most show milder upper air moving in by midweek then perhaps they leak away ie drop off again by the end of next week indicative of a likely northwest orientation to the airflow. 

Early next week.. 👇

850tempuk_90_ps_slp.thumb.png.efcdb774a6872cee4a85560a3306d754.png

Midweek.. 👇

850tempuk_114_ps_slp.thumb.png.b05e10ce747b5fda742bf5699ab5f815.png

Midweek.. 👇

850tempuk_132_ps_slp.thumb.png.c6368fd7ece5811b9a4b8b84f8b174ae.png

Latter part of next week.. 👇

850tempuk_180_ps_slp.thumb.png.e5fb31f49001b2c9ee05f399d7f27437.png

Next weekend 👇

850tempuk_210_ps_slp.thumb.png.25084da86eb55c531e3b8576e6ef6c46.png

Edited by jordan smith
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decent FI from GFS Op this morning but the ensembles still look pretty zonal albeit cool zonal with brief PM interludes dragged in on the back of deep Atlantic lows as they pass through.

 

 

graphe3_1000_257_84___.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i know its lala land  but the gfs  might  be on to some  thing early  december

gfs-2-348.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No doubt the GFS has been gradually pivoting to a cold spell a week from now. It will be very interesting to see if this intensifies.

Meanwhile, just for fun, here's the snow risk for Election Day ☺️❄️

1089857818_Screenshot2019-11-29at06_04_30.thumb.png.6d65e80d1948768e31228d53ccbb766e.png

Edited by West is Best
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gfs and ecm going with interesting output as we move into the 2nd week. Timing is different but there is at the moment heights going north. Will be interesting viewing in future runs. All aboard the Big Dipper.

92630DA7-2529-4EE2-B136-E2FB0A3143AB.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM looking good for the day 8/9 switch to colder Artic/PM shots . Short milder blip is all it is now mid next week 

55F53C36-2965-4451-A050-9A46B4EB12A3.png

A659E752-45E4-4235-931D-2EA472F9B2DB.png

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...