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Model output discussion - late November

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2 hours ago, Ols500 said:

Whats the wet blulb temperature?

Wet-bulb (as opposed to blulb :oldgrin:) temperature. The wet-bulb temperature (WBT) is the temperature read by a thermometer covered in water-soaked cloth (wet-bulb thermometer) over which air is passed. At 100% relative humidity, the wet-bulb temperature is equal to the air temperature (dry-bulb temperature) and it is lower at lower humidity. (Wiki) 😉

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a significant 850mb -ve anomaly though in a 50 member suite at D15.

For that temp anomaly one would assume there is a decent cluster seeing some North  Atlantic ridging ..

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

For that temp anomaly one would assume there is a decent cluster seeing some North  Atlantic ridging ..

The day 10 mean from the ECM shows a nice route for heights to build up through towards the high Arctic , so I imagine if the EC ENS we have access too went further beyond day 10, the mean would improve (for coldies). Another trend to keep an eye on anyway!! 

7497293B-ED74-41E4-85E9-9794A636ABA9.png

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Just a quick one regards..ecm 12z..

Any Greenland push would only act as a 'massive' bonus..

As with a vortex layer format as this...would be a 1 way path...

As its a trough drop and load in itself!!=

Mass siberian plotting!!!

Ignoring the mid/high latitudes blocking...

I'd rather this as a guiding tool...

Mid December is plyed with promises!!!

1952533423_ECH1-240(18).webp

1952533423_ECH1-240(18).webp

Edited by tight isobar
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Just a couple of gef rainfall graphs one for C.England and one for C.Scotland


dry.thumb.png.88c17b1339f1ee22fbec6fa5b2d305c1.pngdry2.thumb.png.9b9bd9aea5e83d3a7bfe5a2ddf04aec4.png

Odds on for around a week of much drier weather.This is almost notable after the seemingly never ending wet weeks we have had this Autumn.

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A suggestion that NOAA is in the same ball park as the EPS

814day_03.thumb.gif.bfce6d6fe59575085be3d4034061f646.gif

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

A suggestion that NOAA is in the same ball park as the EPS

814day_03.thumb.gif.bfce6d6fe59575085be3d4034061f646.gif

Heights not so low tough given a low anomoly and mean trough ..... 552 dam n France .......need that getting down to Iberia imo 

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I've not that much to add to the discussion tonight over what others have said about the models.  But one thing is telling is the state of the NH on GEFS at T300:

gens_panel_aso5.png

Not because it tells anything at all about the UK weather specifically at that range.  What a ludicrous idea!  

I have posted these before, particularly about a month ago to make a point about trop vortex disorganisation.  And as we are now heading into winter very soon, they are much more purplely...

But they are evident of the same thing, the trop vortex is not organised even now, some of these are completely torn apart.  There are some though, like P20, that look like a zonal fest.  They aren't, they are particular rolls of the dice in a world of much uncertainty.  The ops did this a couple of days ago and there was a lot of game over, gallows humour in here, and yes I was sucked in to it too, hold my hands up, but I'm asking for my small flannel that I threw in back now!

I think it is reasonably clear now that we will enter winter with an everything is possible from a trop vortex point of view...which will probably have a time limit...while the strat vortex is under-revved.  Beyond that we may see a period of vortex intimidation (I actually tried to type intensification, but leave it as I found it funny), maybe not, either way, eventually a weakening vortex leading to eventually SSW, with then a further lag as the pattern downwells.

My forecast for winter at the moment would look something like this:

Early to mid December: cold and mild up for grabs with equal probability.

Late December to mid January: more likely milder than average .

Late January onwards: 70% likely colder than average, 30% milder than average.

We will see...

Edited by Mike Poole
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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It does look even less promising than the GFS at 192 though, where the ECM usually amplifies too much, just have to hope that the caveat of GFS sometimes being better in zonal transitions to Northerlies holds true.

ECM is excellent!  18 days needed to be sub 2008 low sunspot with 33 days to go......this is getting very interesting.   I’ll post in a seasonal thread where my LRF is 
 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM is excellent!  
 

BFTP

Hmm - doesn't look like the ridge will gain as much latitude at around 300 as it did on the GFS.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hmm - doesn't look like the ridge will gain as much latitude at around 300 as it did on the GFS.

De bilts ENS show à gradual cooling from 08 Dec towards mid month but nothing special. 

399D733E-B054-4A0D-9E15-16FB60D515FD.png

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

De bilts ENS show à gradual cooling from 08 Dec towards mid month but nothing special. 

399D733E-B054-4A0D-9E15-16FB60D515FD.png

Oh the EPS are good, think you will see a very nice London graph later - expect either just below average with not much spread or a fairly hefty cluster to be significantly below average.

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Seems like good enough support from the operational models to see High Pressure becoming a more invasive feature over and around the UK during the next few days. At 96 hours, Monday mid day, and they show the High Pressure over Western and South-Western UK offering some brighter, drier weather. Personally will be welcome, but chilly with night-time frost and some mist/fog in places - the latter probably particularly so towards Southern UK under the slack flow.


12Z ECMWF

FC3CE4D9-4EC0-445D-9D13-F2D47B69E771.thumb.png.06d2279fd1e307af846dd2777377b3cd.png

 

12Z UKMO

15E85ADD-C4DE-4E65-BD38-BD448D7ACC54.thumb.png.8bb15567b5bfd232710a378c770244fc.png

 

12Z GEM

09252736-330D-49F4-83FE-D65887FF5B29.thumb.png.9f5768b6a6b731e8315bc97e10325825.png

 

12Z GFS

11BFA8F9-216D-4D49-BF50-72033017B956.thumb.png.ff6c733cfd04fdd224ea4df1c488bbb3.png

 

12Z ICON

56F480D1-6037-44DD-A64F-040C964C7334.thumb.png.cdc38ed131bfc087eb45a9f9c76365dd.png

 

12Z NAVGEM

8C421139-4D3A-477D-ACBB-AF6D766CA3C8.thumb.png.929c5f1b45b207052e8c99b02559bfb5.png

Although reliability is not a particular friend to this model, thought I’d post the 12Z NAVGEM at 180 hours just to illustrate what that model is showing towards the FI sort of range:

C19A8CEA-DE14-42CA-986A-FAE59749B9D6.thumb.png.bf314d9f820b601308e647cbad2e7a9e.png47A586C4-5B95-4241-9E5F-E055B85B625E.thumb.png.f4c89c240d3765b3f6d51486ccf4c9e1.png
 

Looks as though it would lead to an increasingly chilly flow from the North-West. Maybe developing more into a Northerly flow after (but may just end up with Polar Maritime air), with some modest amplification upstream in the Western Atlantic. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Mistakes
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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec46 less predictable than it has been 

What, it isn't rubbish? Stone the crows!

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec46 less predictable than it has been 

Apart from a broad brush 264-432 which the first half is as per the EPS 0z and maybe another few days after that, i certainly wouldn't want to be making a forecast based on it.

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec46 less predictable than it has been 

I think the pendulem has swung towards some ridging in the N Atlantic mid term...

Whether that be a brief PM incursion or something more sustained unknown.

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still not too convinced of a dry Sunday, this looks like frequent heavy showers, certainly in my location, but maybe other areas too? Sunday dry or wet?

gfs-0-66.png?18

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Pub run no where near as flat at 180, not sure if the ridge forming towards Greeny will come to much in the next few frames but looks better for Scottish ski resorts atleast!! Arctic heights a little stronger too 

AF02318E-CE8B-43E0-9F19-D642AA6BB5B2.png

2CC37613-C914-4D92-8324-1F4C7A8C7EC0.png

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18Z starting to look like EC 12z by day 9...

 

image.png

image.thumb.png.89d0af381816bb12302a54a1992e911c.png

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18Z starting to look like EC 12z by day 9...

 

image.png

image.thumb.png.89d0af381816bb12302a54a1992e911c.png

 

Will give us A good insight into where the ECM was heading. Will all change again tomorrow though

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Potential vortex shredder incoming, GFS T228:

image.thumb.jpg.2716b1902f0c952c5dba15205fc4bbb7.jpg

Route from Pacific through pole to Greenland?

Edited by Mike Poole
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13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still not too convinced of a dry Sunday, this looks like frequent heavy showers, certainly in my location, but maybe other areas too? Sunday dry or wet?

 

Dry as a bone, where is any convection going to come from in Stafford on that chart?, right near a high and no cold in the mid levels.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Potential vortex shredder incoming, GFS T228:

image.thumb.jpg.2716b1902f0c952c5dba15205fc4bbb7.jpg

Dont think we are going to make it this time, don;t like the tilt on the Newfoundland low.

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