Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - late November

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes sleety, personally I think those ECM ensembles are trending down again, 2 weeks out and they still show a rather chilly outlook! I can't copy the 14 day ones from weather. Us, but they do point to a rather cold theme, going on the mean. Unless there is a flip by mid month... Dare I say it... A colder or at least average month ahead temperature wise!!! All along way off I know, but most definitely a better signal than this time last year. 

graphe_ens3 (5).png

ensemble-euro.png
METEOLOGIX.COM

Leeds, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the...

Trending colder. 

Think it shows extended. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at those charts Phil,low pressure to our north east and high pressure to our west possible or nw.

Looking likely to give a north westerly  air stream during mid December,and chilly not bad.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Looking at those charts Phil,low pressure to our north east and high pressure to our west possible or nw.

Looking likely to give a north westerly  air stream during mid December,and chilly not bad.

 

 

 

Hi Anthony and welcome to the forum.

Yes it looks that way at the moment although i hope we don't get too much more rain!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

General Election day weather

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019112800_348.

Whether cold or less cold, it looks unsettled and possibly windy. Would need a bit of luck to get a dry day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Hi Anthony and welcome to the forum.

Yes it looks that way at the moment although i hope we don't get too much more rain!

At least it looks drier and colder the outlook now, makes a change of what has been a rather dull and wet November with the exception of Scotland where it has been drier and probably end up being a drier than normal month.

As for next week, it looks like it be one of those set ups where Northern Scotland will be milder than southern England. Question will be just how long will the high pressure hold out for and then what happens after that. No huge amounts of rainfall are forecast though after todays rain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

At least it looks drier and colder the outlook now, makes a change of what has been a rather dull and wet November with the exception of Scotland where it has been drier and probably end up being a drier than normal month.

As for next week, it looks like it be one of those set ups where Northern Scotland will be milder than southern England. Question will be just how long will the high pressure hold out for and then what happens after that. No huge amounts of rainfall are forecast though after todays rain. 

Wet again by next weekend first in NW parts then spreading South with heavy wintry showers on gale force NW winds and progressively colder although not severely so, drier further South and East you are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big Northerly being teed up here.

image.thumb.png.cfa0effdbbf37678467f76244ca78909.png

Potent wave about to bring a 1990 style dumping down across the country.

image.thumb.png.cc620a035fd4c1c93cbfec17d06104f3.png

 

image.thumb.png.8f2c8d928000f9b9bdd4601882aa1f14.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that’s a little bit more potent than this upcoming cold spell!! 😬

0C6FF2C9-D8E9-4634-9011-FBB7632A49BD.png
 

could link with arctic Heights and end up a beast FTE

Edited by Ali1977

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big Northerly being teed up here.

image.thumb.png.cfa0effdbbf37678467f76244ca78909.png

Potent wave about to bring a 1990 style dumping down across the country.

image.thumb.png.cc620a035fd4c1c93cbfec17d06104f3.png

 

image.thumb.png.8f2c8d928000f9b9bdd4601882aa1f14.png

Heavy snow showers sweeping across the country blizzard conditions in the hills.😉

gfsnh-0-276.png

gfsnh-1-288.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Copious amounts of snow for Eastern side of England.

gfseuw-0-300_icu7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Now that’s a little bit more potent than this upcoming cold spell!! 😬

0C6FF2C9-D8E9-4634-9011-FBB7632A49BD.png
 

could link with arctic Heights and end up a beast FTE

Although a week ago, some of the runs for the coming weekend weren’t so far away from this - it’s the polar field that matters and we are a long way from getting any kind of continuity on that 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Copious amounts of snow for Eastern side of England.

gfseuw-0-300_icu7.png

Unstable flow over a warm North Sea. A shame it's T300 and not T30.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The op looks one of the best runs but trust me - there is some other stonkers as well, one member looks like it will topple into a powerhouse Easterly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long way out but a possible change of low pressure tracking over high pressure to our west northwest,

And settling in to our northeast giving some cold to very cold arctic air,GFS picking this up although a 

long way out it is nice to see and very possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...