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Model output discussion - late November

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Just now, Mapantz said:

The -15°C you're referring to is across Norway.

Similar setup here in Dec 2010 and it got down to -20c, look at the trapped uppers under a high, i am only talking IF lying snow and clear skies mind.

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Nice reservoir of cold and snow building over the near continent if this pub run is anywhere near the mark!

image.thumb.png.edfb1c442f54a2da1dbf79c3eccd0c09.pngimage.thumb.png.bde6dc065b3b388b11622c8c7125f0e7.png

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The op is not going to be a rank big outsider, might be the coldest but it is going to have Vincent.

image.thumb.png.adc7adaae7862084fbe5b7b55275e268.png

 

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Thanks for the stunning post Catacol always appreciate posts like that which have clearly taken a lot of work and effort in comparison to my posts which I whip up in about 60 seconds!

GEFS ensembles are staying with the general consensus 

image.thumb.png.ab3a51d5cfd3d98046b854b17f493bd2.png

There is a definite cool down in the uppers there from lets say D7 to beyond D10. Now just how cool it gets is when the fun and games start - plenty of options maintain an average/milder solution probably through W'lies or even SW'lies but plenty show that NW'lie option - some even go even colder than that.

That op is clearly something of an outlier later on in the run but not too fussed about that at this stage - its the initial (possible) NW'ly incursion I'm looking towards first.

Was actually hoping for 2 or 3 real freezer runs in there - not quite seen that yet but wouldn't be surprised if a few crop up within the next week or so

Edited by StretfordEnd1996

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The GFS op and control both following last night's 12z where wedges from Russia and the Pacific head towards the Arctic. As we would expect with such fluid features the results are different on this run:

997875020_gfsnh-0-264(2).thumb.png.c2a50dbbbe701908d1df0d4858067b32.pnggensnh-0-1-264.thumb.png.0aa87c1c617121771942b0ea78f41aba.png

Interesting all the same and backing from a good cluster of the GEFS as a route to attack what appears to still be a passive tPV. Clearly if this does verify, a big "if", the resulting NH profile will take some time for clarity. The ECM up till D10 is altogether flatter, with the Russian wedge of minor influence and the Pacific ridge subdued. AT D10 (FWIW):

491881485_ECH1-240(17).thumb.gif.cbefdf0d20a6b2292d950406579aec73.gif 

The tPV again shows little sign of any willingness to become the main driver and I suspect any forcing will be able to cause interest.

So it remains a waiting game to see where we are heading after the high topples around D7.

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Yes sleety, personally I think those ECM ensembles are trending down again, 2 weeks out and they still show a rather chilly outlook! I can't copy the 14 day ones from weather. Us, but they do point to a rather cold theme, going on the mean. Unless there is a flip by mid month... Dare I say it... A colder or at least average month ahead temperature wise!!! All along way off I know, but most definitely a better signal than this time last year. 

graphe_ens3 (5).png

Edited by Mattwolves

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GFS continues its (often rare) consistency for +198 onwards this morning (in comparison to its previous runs)

HP topples through around D4-5 

image.thumb.png.a91dff1e23429294a9ac6c7de18fff12.png

Still means that by Tuesday next week temperatures still struggling and largely in the low-mid single figures

image.thumb.png.e47688e10953aff90c607ab038f8e673.png

Still cold into Wednesday morning before largely turning milder by D7-8

image.thumb.png.9879bf5eb3c508ff87859e0c51a34a8c.png

image.thumb.png.e2c6de18fb234dcdfa672938dda35e07.png

 

Just gone D10 it shows HP trying to built to the west

image.thumb.png.41fd4cb34a167a94d0e3cad6e57f89c4.png

image.thumb.png.b6b54dc63b4fe8bd7096a443035c45cd.png

A good smattering of the ensembles also support a colder solution - especially around the 9th/10th/11th

image.thumb.png.e5583bf2116dfd9a1532af24b01425cd.png

 

 

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10 hours ago, Catacol said:

As I've said repeatedly (so time to stop now) GSDM access is gone....but I would expect torque to engage at around this time (mid month, maybe just after) giving us a decent stab at stopping the westerly flow a bit and giving support to resurgent blocking via atlantic wave breaking. All this without even mentioning the vortex....yet. Given the tendency so far this season for the blocking signal to remain not far beneath the surface my confidence in a late December cool down is increasing - and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Christmas week may see polar air very much in the mix. 

Maybe a naïve question this, but could not the GSDM quantities be computed or at least estimated from freely available GFS data,  by someone with the appropriate know how?

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The longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean is suggesting an increasing chance / chances of polar maritime and even arctic shots further down the line, much as the GEFS is indicating..so, could be some snow for most of us at times in december!!👍😉

EDM1-216.thumb.gif.9321282df2665761481a5f5010edad2d.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.5086950c8d798ea3aa899d663911877c.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.c6cb677c99e637761576ac71f2251ecb.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW

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So looking at the mechanics of the next 10-days, we see the high topple and then the main chunk of the tPV pass to our north, so little opportunity from current modelling of cold sinking too far south, as the Euro high and tPV chunk cancel each other out, energy wise, just the latitude of the meeting place to be clarified.

After D10 on the GFS 06z, again aligned to the general pattern of the last few runs with wedges and Pacific ridge warming out the higher latitudes and the tPV being pushed around, each run a variation on that theme and at this range just the synoptic is relevant. 

As we enter post D10 a greater chance of an Atlantic ridge due to the tPV chunks away from our region. On the 06z run no sustained cold, more a quasi-zonal look. 

The Russian high is refusing to vacate and that has not really favoured the UK with a cold trough to date, so not a positive. At T300:

640705968_gfsnh-0-300(3).thumb.png.9a9aee187c12e66bb1e6901f6cd57711.png1775136767_gfsnh-1-300(1).thumb.png.9c2284b698ca1740619d9020eb33d67a.png

Looking at the upper air, a great chart, those 850's stretching far south, but again the UK more of a glancing blow than in the thick of it on this run. So another good GFS run, we simply need some shuffling of the pack to get cold to our region.

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Just a reminder that posts about the current temperatures, or just general weather chat, belong in the relevant threads (such as the Autumn Moans and Chat one, or the daily weather reports thread). Cheers! 🙂

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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Could this be the second nibble? h500slp.png

And, what if a similar situation should ensue, come the latter half of December...when the MJO is in a more favourable phase? Perhaps the ridge won't collapse and/or sink so easily...?:oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone

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I was half hoping the GFS 6z would show the possible second Atlantic Ridge on or before +240 - but as we often see it keeps sort of 'mingling' around beyond +240 in FI as each run goes on!

Either way it's not as potent as what we saw this morning and yesterday 

Builds up around D11

image.thumb.png.936d79a1f4fdeaeea1cb979f12fceaa6.png

image.thumb.png.872dc64a7352bcb74c6dd2d337569476.png

Topples through by the end of the run. In its maximum position it isn't a huge ridge and only just lets some brief colder air in

image.thumb.png.ba4a47482db05f2613ed0cbccbbf0ce6.png

This isn't a concern to me yet though purely because its still in FI so the main thing for now is actually getting some sort of ridging appear in the nearer time frame - the finer details such as how North it gets towards Greenland, how cold the uppers it brings in are and how quickly it disappears and topples through is of no concern to me until at least +144 hours

So absolutely nothing confirmed or set in stone yet - all just a bit of fun and games at the moment regarding that possible second cold bite, whilst we all know its plausible its too far away to confirm anything. 

 

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Fear not - plenty of troughs being dropped into Europe on the GEFS.

Doesn't look that good in graph form though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 minutes ago, Due South said:

JAMSTEC_Surf Air Temp Anomaly. El Nino Modoki state observed

JAMSTEC.JPG

Northerly flow -NAO FORECAST that would suggest.

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14 minutes ago, booferking said:

Northerly flow -NAO FORECAST that would suggest.

Is this not out of date almost?1st November start date it says. Let's see what Decembers update shows if there is one? Looks promising though either way😁

Edited by Kentspur

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1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Is this not out of date almost?1st November start date it says. Let's see what Decembers update shows if there is one? Looks promising though either way😁

Lol😅 didn't even look at the date but as you say it looks promising.👍

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Afternoon. 🙂

Today's rain although fragmented will slowly head south through central into southern parts this afternoon and evening, its likely to become a little more organised and heavier in places for a time before slowly weakening to light and patchy again towards midnight but it will take until late in the night to clear most of southern England but by dawn it should of cleared all parts with much colder clearer air from the north the day tomorrow starts with a fairly widespread frost for Scotland and perhaps northern England the North Midlands North Wales and Northern Ireland, but quite mild for the far southwest throughout tonight and with a peppering of showers for northern and Eastern areas sleet and snow showers are likely on higher ground, mostly rain at first to low levels but turning wintry to low levels too later tomorrow for northern and Eastern areas although showers will be of sleet and snow to low levels for Scotland a mostly dry day elsewhere tomorrow and sunny for a good part of the day although still some cloud for the far south at first. Feeling cold with temperatures likely remaining at or below freezing for central Scotland all day tomorrow elsewhere 4-7c for the south with 7-10c for the far southwest and low single figures for the north of England and Northern Ireland. ❄️

Here's a quick animation of the next 24-36 hours temperatures using Hirlam.. 

12pm today to 6am Saturday morning.. 👇

mWBtVjXDUP.thumb.gif.1ba7c0ac44c80ef8aebb0822737ae2c8.gif

Precipitation forecast upto midnight.. 👇

vf7SWeDrQm.thumb.gif.5abe64871297a56afce64b09ea57942a.gif

Saturday is likely to be very wet for southwest England with heavy and persistent rain for most of the day which will then clear southeast into France elsewhere mostly dry although perhaps some more general cloud for a time into southern counties of England and Wales. 

Arpege.. 👇

06_55_ukprecipratec.thumb.png.c1704addd482b57b2117e690aef4a669.png

Behind that the early part of next week mostly settled mostly dry hard overnight frosts some freezing fog possible in a few places too with perhaps a few wintry showers at first for northern and Eastern areas.

Monday 2nd.. 👇

1506307355_EUROPE_PRMSL_102(2).thumb.jpg.0e28757bc66e5ba30e1dd160c0cc7e5f.jpg

3rd..👇

1368534465_EUROPE_PRMSL_120(1).thumb.jpg.02a701b4755263405358f87ec7beddad.jpg

After midweek though likely to turn less cold then milder by the end of the week with a west then westnorthwesterly flow across the UK prevalent for the north at first then extending into southern areas along with more rain but this a while off so not worth any more detail. 

Snapshot for Friday 6th..👇

IMG_20191128_133704.thumb.jpg.7cd157a7e25f72fd16fd5e7f4c6ec278.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

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13 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Is this not out of date almost?1st November start date it says. Let's see what Decembers update shows if there is one? Looks promising though either way😁

 

Edited by NL
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