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Model output discussion - late November

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Still looking a bit 'wedgy' and 'blocky' in the arctic on ECM

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Just not quite as dramatic a result as GFS in FI

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There are some differences regarding the structure and intensity of the vortex lobes that needs to be sorted before high confidence can be placed on the ext mean anomalies this evening, albeit they are in the same ball park  The EPS and NOAA are pretty much in agreement with the main lobe over northern Canada with the GEFs being the odd one out which results in the latter giving more influence to the Atlantic subtropical high and thus the strong westerly flow veering over the UK.

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Edited by knocker

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3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

Mike  interesting you talk about the Strat according to the Met guys yesterday on Weather studio the zonal wind always has decreased but it will increase again mid month and at the moment they do not see any sign of a SSW

Yes, they do, but not all the models are saying that.  Annoyingly we mortals can't get access to the UKMO models, which we pay for, so we have a narrative about what models we can see, and, as of now, the GEFS have been reasonably bullish about a SSW, and in the 12z, the GFS suggesting, tentatively, it might go for it.  I don't know which is right, we will see...

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Interesting output this evening. The top three models that go out to 240hrs all have some kind of Greenland or Greeny /arctic combo height rises at that point.

The question now is how much influence can they exert should the models be anywhere close to the actual set up in ten days time.

We shall just have to wait and see.

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15 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Interesting output this evening. The top three models that go out to 240hrs all have some kind of Greenland or Greeny /arctic combo height rises at that point.

The question now is how much influence can they exert should the models be anywhere close to the actual set up in ten days time.

We shall just have to wait and see.

Absolutely - and that's a good thing at this stage to see that sort of (loose) agreement at D10

GFS-GEM-ECM

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GFS and GEM both drawing down cooler air from the North 

ECM not so much and looks flatter but it's not a million miles away (just slightly east compared to the GFS)

Bit of luck and connecting the dots the HP could lie in a favorable position for colder weather around that time frame

Let's see what happens in the next few days - D10 is a long way off

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24 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Interesting output this evening. The top three models that go out to 240hrs all have some kind of Greenland or Greeny /arctic combo height rises at that point.

The question now is how much influence can they exert should the models be anywhere close to the actual set up in ten days time.

We shall just have to wait and see.

yep  waiting  for the pub run!!

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2 hours ago, swfc said:

I'd agree if it was at 72 hrs but you never know.least we have a drying out period.cant remember last time sun was out and it was dry in sheffield.just has a side note check out GP comments on the strat thread,makes sense

Yep, like you I am looking forward to some nice, crisp dry days - well overdue. Oh! And of course some proper frosty nights. 

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God help me, I hate these lows in Winter months when they trend further and further south and then miss us completely. Anyway, lets hope that 18z continues with something akin to the 12z and shifts the HP sharpish, nice to get a few nice crisp seasonal days with frost for now anyway.

gfs-2-72.png

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Brrr

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De-icers at the ready .. (already had to defrost my car a few times this last month or so)

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Here we go - Arctic high - Atlantic high link up - by 276-288 (ish)

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GFS out to +240 very similar to the 12z showing a brief NW'ly incursion around that timeframe bringing again cold uppers into the country

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HP actually sets further North over Greenland too

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The pub run introduces even earlier hemispheric mayhem than the 12z 

It most certainly does, at 240 we have all sorts of fun and games.  A nice arctic high with ridging up the east side of Greenland with most of the PV away from Canada.  Long way off though and likely to look completely different on the 0z...... nice to look at though!

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GFS clutching on a bit of a golden ticket again tonight

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Means nothing at the moment though.. need some more ensembles trending into something similar too.

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That is brutal cold with mins of -15c possible where there is lying snow and clear skies.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

That is brutal cold with mins of -15c possible where there is lying snow and clear skies.

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I think its a tad early to be posting about specific detail in an event that we don't even know yet exists but hey whatever - its still music to my ears..!

In the nearer timeframe - 

'Seasonable' is the perfect term I'm looking for for this chart

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is brutal cold with mins of -15c possible where there is lying snow and clear skies.

image.thumb.png.efac255e9b02970c35c3b8261c9e5dc3.png

The -15°C you're referring to is across Norway.

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