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Model output discussion - late November

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

But the gfs at t336 is spot on right? 😄

All just possibilities at that range, mate!   Well either range actually, of course.  

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

What a lovely set of GEFS 12Z ensembles -- the mild days have all-but gone! Bung in a few more -10C T850s, and we're all set for winter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:oldgood::yahoo::clapping:⛷️🏄‍♀️🌨️❄️

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Yes siree, Bob!🤠

On two Brian gaze is saying milder air wins through middle of next week 🤔

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm sure it will- for a time,perhaps.... 🙂

A more west or northwesterly airstream shown later in the week so probably not too mild after the cold start with colder incursions.. a bit too far out for certainty though. 🙂

Edited by jordan smith

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What a difference 6hrs makes! It was all doom and gloom earlier..fickle bunch us model watchers 🤣 GEM not too shabby for the second northerly next weekend. Let’s hope ECM follows this and shows signs of a similar pattern to GFS

25BD7E4F-C9F1-46CD-B12A-AE233515CB28.png

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19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a lovely set of GEFS 12Z ensembles -- the mild days have all-but gone! Bung in a few more -10C T850s, and we're all set for winter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:oldgood::yahoo::clapping:⛷️🏄‍♀️🌨️❄️

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Yes siree, Bob!🤠

What else Pete!? 😉

signing out from GFS headquarters for the day

 

BFTP

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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m already liking the transition more on the ECM at t144......

 

BFTP

I was the thinking the exact opposite ....

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I was the thinking the exact opposite ....

Its certainly flat at 168 anyway - 2 ECM ops not conducive to a cold outcome on the trot, but we know we are going mild next week anyway - that bit is set in stone, what isn't yet certain is how long it will stay mild for and that bit is certainly up for grabs based on the GEFS latest suite.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was the thinking the exact opposite ....

Looks pretty similar to the 6z NW imo.dont think EC will go hyper tbh

Edited by swfc

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Looks pretty similar to the 6z NW imo.dont think EC will go hyper tbh

No, I be surprised if this run would offer any surprises at the end, now.  

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No, I be surprised if this run would offer any surprises at the end, now.  

I'd suspect EC given the timeframe hasn't picked up any signal,if there is one?

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Have to say EC looks pretty solid tbh.granted it's ten days but unlike GFS it's not gone from the flat 6z to hyper 12z.think there's a reason there !

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22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was the thinking the exact opposite ....

Yep you are right, the HP shifts East again.....poor ECM outcome for early cold rtn.....don’t anticipate Armageddon but also don’t expect such a delay like that run poses as the AZHP cell shifts too much NE’wards.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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The two features that enabled the GFS 12z run was a wedge ejected from the Russian high at T120 that meandered towards Greenland and sustained. The second, was a Pacific ridge that pushed warmth towards the Arctic from about D10-D12:

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.a1516ea512780a0b6147d56bd00e8200.png1817048546_gfsnh-0-288(3).thumb.png.8a146e2b56770a41ac6c1355df30ff54.png

The Pacific high also enhanced the upstream meridonal flow, no major waves but enough energy to create wedges. This solution at that range is a big ask as usually models tend towards a cleaner setup. The ECM 12z has these two features, but the wedge from Russia is less expansive and the Pacific ridge is modelled as a Pacific high till D10 when it gets more of a rise. So the GFS and ECM may be seeing the same play but are at opposite ends of the solution? So either is possible, or both may be wrong, or a middle ground, or more runs..?

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There is much more potential in this chart than most realise. Look at the kink in the isobars south of Iceland. If a low developed and zipped south east through the UK, it would open the flood gates to the brutal cold lurking just to our north east. Only problem is it's at day 10 so is obviously open to favourable or unfavourable adjustments. Screenshot_20191127-190402.thumb.png.45aae9702ef77a47ae3da2ce8b8d7357.png

Screenshot_20191127-190353.png

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As it stands from the 12z this evening the gfs & gem offer something of winter late on and as for ecm quite frankly it's crap but we all know which will be right sods law.

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11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

There is much more potential in this chart than most realise. Look at the kink in the isobars south of Iceland. If a low developed and zipped south east through the UK, it would open the flood gates to the brutal cold lurking just to our north east. Only problem is it's at day 10 so is obviously open to favourable or unfavourable adjustments. Screenshot_20191127-190402.thumb.png.45aae9702ef77a47ae3da2ce8b8d7357.png

Screenshot_20191127-190353.png

I'd agree if it was at 72 hrs but you never know.least we have a drying out period.cant remember last time sun was out and it was dry in sheffield.just has a side note check out GP comments on the strat thread,makes sense

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1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

I'm guessing bluearmy is not convinced the GFS is modelling the arctic high correctly?

I'm not sure any of the models are that great at modelling an Arctic high.

Correct 

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

As it stands from the 12z this evening the gfs & gem offer something of winter late on and as for ecm quite frankly it's crap but we all know which will be right sods law.

Why is it crap???pressure dropping to the east and chance of height rises even tho fi is probably below the 168 hour mark.if you look at nhp it's not really an arctic high.the residue low heights near Greenland imo don't indicate anything like the GFS 12z

Edited by swfc

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Nice set for compare

@Aberdeen

@London ones...the mean getting a grip and is increasingly taking members on a dip!!!..as December walks further.

 

 

 

As for cold expansion/inroads..

Middle plot shouting the odds now....ever louder.

 

 

MT8_Aberdeen_ens (3).png

MT8_London_ens (20).png

temp4 (11).png

Screenshot_2019-11-27-19-53-08.png

Edited by tight isobar

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For the short term the rain that gave southeast England and east anglia a very wet night last night into this morning is now rotating around northern and Eastern England.

Anyway through tonight mostly dry with only a few showers for northern Ireland Western Scotland Western England and Wales although more prolonged heavy showers for the far southwest at times.. some rain continuing for northern Scotland which sinks south later, for more Northern and eastern parts of England and southern Scotland a wet night in store courtesy of the wrap around front with mostly light/moderate rainfall persisting and slowly sinking south, for most of the midlands southern and southeast England drier spells but showery pieces of rain in places. Winds from the northeast for Scotland and Northern Ireland but north to northwest for England and Wales. 

3am Thursday.. 👇

c5d7c88c-db62-417d-9163-fd7737234c9c.thumb.gif.c7324670b55f34bf78d3e07d9bf79419.gif

Through tomorrow winds turn to the north for Scotland and then northern Ireland with some showers turning to snow in parts of Scotland later as colder air digs in.. The area of rain sinks south and east and aligns itself by afternoon northwest to southeast through northern Ireland Wales into central England and east anglia fragmenting at first through the morning before likely becoming heavier and more organised again later in the day. Feeling colder.. 

Tomorrow 3pm..👇

e790b12a-f53f-4997-8110-acbeca965275.thumb.gif.d0ac0500379ba54c03525ede6f732a2f.gif

9pm tomorrow.. 👇

7fe18ccc-627a-44d5-8360-06af14816861.thumb.gif.aeb7b08ba81ff61ac06dd029d150633a.gif

A quick look at Saturdays low and rain perhaps pushing into southwest England and the far south of Wales elsewhere mostly dry with some sleet and snow showers for northern areas with a cold Arctic airmass established through all areas with a strengthening southeasterly to Easterly wind for the West and southwest as that low slips southeast. 

6pm Saturday.. 👇

81fc95c4-269f-4d51-b0a9-693d8087de91.thumb.gif.61d3a8b95aa9782c6a43b9145786993f.gif

A few snapshots for how day 10 is looking for now.. 

GFS..

Saturday 7th..👇

2069480086_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(12).thumb.jpg.0390c7b5f5b2f3c3277971c70bf7fe70.jpg

GFS shows winds from the north making more of high pressure over Greenland Azores high to the southwest of the UK this means unsettled with longer spells of rain snow at times further north especially on higher ground but not exclusively so. 

Ecmwf.. 👇

1521240381_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(13).thumb.jpg.c7bdb03063e669ed2236a89f46d89da3.jpg

A brisk northwesterly airstream with origins from a long way north means an unsettled but fairly cold outlook with wintriness at times particularly for the north. 

Gem.. 👇

295729907_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(11).thumb.jpg.abc4ef61bbfbb38a4cc0eaffd2ecad50.jpg

Gem has a rather different idea still unsettled but with a low pressure system developing in the Atlantic and tracking over the Azores high into the UK but with the Azores high ridging North to the west of the UK the low is forced southeast over England and Wales with a cold northerly digging behind.

Finally a blend of all three and this is what's shown.. 👇

1395827775_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(14).thumb.jpg.aa2163d9757dfc2c9983a38a0fd2e7af.jpg

A mix between the Gfs and Ecmwf with a quite unsettled and quite cold north or northwesterly airstream with the Azores high to the southwest.

Remember this is just a snapshot and not to be taken as gospel this far out just discussing the output shown for interest purposes. 🙂

Edited by jordan smith

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Nice set for compare

@Aberdeen

@London ones...the mean getting a grip and is increasingly taking members on a dip!!!..as December walks further.

 

 

 

As for cold expansion/inroads..

Middle plot shouting the odds now....ever louder.

 

MT8_Aberdeen_ens (3).png

 

 

 

First 2 genuine flatliners i have seen this season on that Aberdeen suite, those are what i look for if a quality spell of weather and not just a half baked 2 inches of slush - blink and you'll miss it affair.

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