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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

^^^ Having said the op wasn't on board with the strat, the 12z output is interesting here T348:

image.thumb.jpg.e97ab59ef41804262f97f89120a6ea8b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6faffc7f6634d9102f74b0fb2b6112b2.jpg

I'm rather ambivalent about the new 10  hPa winds chart, it only makes sense if you recognise that it is a slice through a 3D air movement, but with the direction into the pole, there is pressure on the strat vortex here.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Just now, ArHu3 said:

EC has a strong bias towards overdoing amplification and blocking, old gfs had a bias towards flattening and zonal flow but the new GFS.... Anyone knows? In the past if the old gfs showed such patterns in FI they would often disappear again and then suddenly reappear 6-8 days out, usually not as amplified but still a colder spell

If the GFS has modelled the arctic correctly on this run, then we are well in the cold game

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

All joking aside and probably stating the obvious i wouldn't get carried away with one single GFS op run showing cold and snow at anytime post day 7 -

It may have plucked out the evolution but i would put the odds on that at about 5%..

I still suspect there maybe PM incursions after the cold high phase, lets see what EC makes of it all.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A...ha! A smidgen of potential!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:yahoo::shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

American Express? That'll do nicely!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

A...ha! A smidgen of potential!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:yahoo::shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

American Express? That'll do nicely!:oldgood:

You can see now why we don't have general elections in December ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A...ha! A smidgen of potential!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:yahoo::shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

American Express? That'll do nicely!:oldgood:

"Potential"!? How about that classic NW Winter phrase of "we might need a 2nd or 3rd bite of the cherry":olddoh:. Maybe this Winter by the time the "cherry" turns up it'll actually be cherry-picking time

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

some output tonight is nearly beyond belief for us in central EU, first proper snow threat on Monday - 10cm plus and then vortex visit if you were to believe some of the ensemble members. A redemption for endless warmth? I still remain skeptical about so much amplification 

gens-9-1-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, jules216 said:

some output tonight is nearly beyond belief for us in central EU, first proper snow threat on Monday - 10cm plus and then vortex visit if you were to believe some of the ensemble members. A redemption for endless warmth? I still remain skeptical about so much amplification 

gens-9-1-288.png

If arctic heights do become a reality, then the 'normal' flow will be amplified

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, jules216 said:

some output tonight is nearly beyond belief for us in central EU, first proper snow threat on Monday - 10cm plus and then vortex visit if you were to believe some of the ensemble members. A redemption for endless warmth? I still remain skeptical about so much amplification 

gens-9-1-288.png

Yes- looking much better for you Jules..

Hopefully the trend of pulling the Euro high west is maintained..

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

^^^ Having said the op wasn't on board with the strat, the 12z output is interesting here T348:

image.thumb.jpg.e97ab59ef41804262f97f89120a6ea8b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6faffc7f6634d9102f74b0fb2b6112b2.jpg

I'm rather ambivalent about the new 10  hPa winds chart, it only makes sense if you recognise that it is a slice through a 3D air movement, but with the direction into the pole, there is pressure on the strat vortex here.

IMO, he would have done better to add the geopotential height ones you get on instant weather maps; having said that it shows the position of the vortex whereas the temperature ones didn't.

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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
11 minutes ago, LRD said:

You tease!

I'm guessing bluearmy is not convinced the GFS is modelling the arctic high correctly?

I'm not sure any of the models are that great at modelling an Arctic high.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes- looking much better for you Jules..

Hopefully the trend of pulling the Euro high west is maintained..

I have seen worse suites in decembers recently for sure,the Tatra mountains shadow for my location is ridiculous,plenty members with  crazy synoptic yet so little percipitation, the Isle of Man shadow is nothing compares to Tatras, locations in north west Slovakia would be burried under 4foot snow while I would have 5cm

graphe3_1000___20.5376_48.6601_Roznava (10).png

Edited by jules216
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM T240 is winner winner chicken dinner:

image.thumb.jpg.98e9aef3e2306d84833858b1034f4bff.jpg

By the way, according to Meteociel the GEM has been upgraded to a resolution of 15km (not far short of GFS, ECM) - might explain why it comes out a bit later this winter.   Quick internet search didn't reveal anything, but current day 5 verification stats are good, better than GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.48c268bfdd8faacea0a19a08c3ce945c.jpg

But the gfs at t336 is spot on right?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

^^

Yes Mike, GEM offers support for the GFS...

Hopefully EC will follow-

But as posted previously, the timeframes make any northerly/north westerly an aspiration.as it stands..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

But the gfs at t336 is spot on right?

All just possibilities at that range, mate!   Well either range actually, of course.  

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