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Model output discussion - late November

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40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree- looking at the broader scale we have a 4 or 5 day spell of seasonal weather incoming, thereafter a breakdown of the high looks likely but will we see a traditional flat zonal pattern setting up or something with a more polar maritime influence.

As i posted above, EC ens have a cold cluster promoting a northerly towards the 9/10th of Dec, nothing guaranteed of course but maybe something to keep an eye on..

Yes not sure about EC (which I have always believed has a better ensemble set than the GFS) but for what its worth

image.thumb.png.4bee5a1b12b0fc1e40cd0bd329cfca7b.png

The GEFS shows a collection of colder runs around that timeframe

image.thumb.png.ef91daaabb4078631e95b8c355499337.pngimage.thumb.png.56b14a523d8899faaf1849dc0b9129bd.png

 

image.thumb.png.ffd21eba3310ddec06ea5a049b735827.pngimage.thumb.png.b2bedc9eff14c6566bcc1111fc72d29a.png

image.thumb.png.48b8be413106125622730e71e30709ba.pngimage.thumb.png.06f646ed0c600b4db5f45019e9ac488e.png

Amongst others

 

All of which are just a NW/N'ly flow nothing overly dramatic

 

 

 

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The theme remains...even solidifys 'somewhat.

A milder interlude...then at the very least some polar maritime shots...with the notion available..for perhaps more arctic ladden influx...

As we get going into December.

So all in all the starting gun well and truly fired !!!!

!...I'll refrain atm from mention any proposed SSW...as that's a cling..and balance atm...imo..

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_64 (1).png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_64.png

MT8_London_ens (19).png

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Plenty of wave attacks on the strat plus a chance of a moderate warming.

but does seem to have backed of a bit from this idea. Nothing set in stone beyond our cold spell. But these residual heights are a headache not knowing placements depths few hundred miles west and it could turn into a UK winter wonderland. Might have to wait awhile more. But so far it's been a very chaotic but interesting couple of months. 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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1 hour ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Yes not sure about EC (which I have always believed has a better ensemble set than the GFS) but for what its worth

image.thumb.png.4bee5a1b12b0fc1e40cd0bd329cfca7b.png

The GEFS shows a collection of colder runs around that timeframe

image.thumb.png.ef91daaabb4078631e95b8c355499337.pngimage.thumb.png.56b14a523d8899faaf1849dc0b9129bd.png

Amongst others

 

All of which are just a NW/N'ly flow nothing overly dramatic

That 06Z GEFS Perturbation 9 looks quite a pretty looking North-Westerly flow with some yummy -10*C 850 hPas getting dragged down through the UK from the North. 😋❄️

Despite feeling doubtful about whether a Polar and Arctic Maritime short of that power will occur within the next 10+ days (though a flow from the North-West looks possible), it seems to have been a while since seeing one of those North-Westerly flows with that depth of cold. Love to see one of that quality happen again sometime combined with a deep Eastern UK trough. 

Does look like in the closer time-frame, the the wet weather will start taking a nap, as the models show High Pressure to the West and North-West of the UK getting knocked over us. 
7C6F1BBA-09D3-4CDE-9954-741F12C809BE.thumb.png.267165068aa31f9b67080589bb5a513d.pngDE790367-6A41-4B54-A73E-5AAC59F35EA6.thumb.png.252a17d16014206c2404766d3e935181.pngEDE9064D-7F69-41B7-84D3-3AC3FF981B2F.thumb.png.4b65a338848ab8239734a66cca0b286a.png
AE3C160A-15FB-4A28-81FD-A46C81F9F6E5.thumb.png.1f61278bafc489017de6c901715a19ea.pngA8FE6E27-ACEA-42B0-B29C-9B04387FB247.thumb.png.1f8ff369693ea479b7f8752e6d20c69a.png8A9D843B-88A3-411D-BA0A-6EFC9615083D.thumb.png.f0a9130797e5b364731009b7589138fc.png

You can see as today’s Low Pressure starts pulling away to the East it will pull down a chilly flow from the North (1st chart above) bringing in a few showers, probably wintry over Northern and North-Eastern UK. Particularly high ground. There’s always a possible risk of some wintry weather on Saturday for Southern UK (most likely to be the far South as some have mentioned but depends on the Lows actual track and it may not reach Southern UK at all). Will likely be rain, possibility sleety in some spots, especially over the hills. The 3rd chart above illustrating Low Pressure pushing through to the South of the UK on Saturday, which again could provide some wintry interest as the Low runs into some cold air from the North.

Asides from that, it looks to stay mostly dry, and frosty at night during clearer spells, which does look possible with models, such as the GFS 06Z above, showing High Pressure pretty dominant over the UK early next week.

The weather has been working too hard and needs a rest. 😴

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Chart attachment issues
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This should be the midday analysis in the above post

 

chart.thumb.JPG.44427fcce957d1914202514ab30c4171.JPG

Edited by knocker
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A small adjustment north with more rain into southwest England. Small variations . 👇

Midnight run.. 

735621745_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_84(3).thumb.jpg.1c0cd856e5125b972a101a9a591f51aa.jpg

6am run.. 

48233976_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_78(1).thumb.jpg.9f36a5b7b6dde6e723cc9248e7980888.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
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12z GFS is fairly flat but there are hints of an arctic high wanting to move to Greenland in the unreliable

image.thumb.png.91341963a5fdc1034799651239966abb.png

Edited by LRD

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1 minute ago, LRD said:

12z GFS is fairly flat but there is hints of an arctic high wanting to move to Greenland in the unreliable

image.thumb.png.91341963a5fdc1034799651239966abb.png

It’s just transitioning, and what I’ve been anticipating (which is becoming a theme) of PV displacement to our NE. Cold pM air with a chance of very cold aM air to come.  
I’m very pleased with how things are panning out and am pretty hopeful that come the second week will be a ‘watch period’ for some widespread disruptive weather.

12z surpresses the mild air considerably compared to 06z.....got a feeling lots to thrown up by models over coming 10 days 

 

BFTP  

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Watch that small low just SW of Greenland somehow manage to find a way of overpowering two strong-looking areas of high pressure that surround it!!

image.thumb.png.25b62aac7fca841c98dca6a3da3903c5.png

You've got to laugh

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15 minutes ago, LRD said:

Watch that small low just SW of Greenland somehow manage to find a way of overpowering two strong-looking areas of high pressure that surround it!!

image.thumb.png.25b62aac7fca841c98dca6a3da3903c5.png

You've got to laugh

Yes it will but crucially what it will do is squeeze the AZHP south and back it west. The LP will then be a slider on NW/SE axis over South UK and Ireland....running into cold air....AWESOME run 12z GFS......this is what I’m looking for!  Nicely cold and getting really cold.   

Disruptive weather in 2nd week of December on this run.....now do I think this is possible?  Of course I do 😎

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Hello Miss. GFS12 FI .. 

Looks like she has a few wildcards up her sleeve this afternoon..

image.thumb.png.4877e5ef748970921dc721d6084663d8.png

image.thumb.png.12a5db017cc89e8794c1eb2ae77b3aac.png

Up she goes..

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12 minutes ago, LRD said:

Watch that small low just SW of Greenland somehow manage to find a way of overpowering two strong-looking areas of high pressure that surround it!!

image.thumb.png.25b62aac7fca841c98dca6a3da3903c5.png

You've got to laugh

Turned out better than I thought it would!

image.thumb.png.5ac79ca5e82ee40dcd75a58f9c361097.png

Edited by LRD
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There we have it then - the first proper eye candy so far?

Shame it probably won't happen..

image.thumb.png.ac6b11186cffd5c2f3a32a90e7c76434.pngimage.thumb.png.64269fb06251d29570eceafbb1038f9a.png

 

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Or maybe not!

image.thumb.png.5ac79ca5e82ee40dcd75a58f9c361097.png

GFS 12z is an excellent run TBH-

As Blue posted above- wedges are good news ...

image.png

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Hopefully this is a trend:

277296816_gfsnh-0-324(3).thumb.png.98d93e399fe20b92e00bb1b3bd4ea044.png1895473408_gfsnh-1-324(1).thumb.png.f35fc65cc9309daabb5b1412adefbe02.png

JFF but intriguing that the algorithms have taken it there...

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That’s a boooom chart for sure, imagine if that was only a few days away - forum melt down 

36718389-E964-4985-960F-B07985F12DC0.png

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS 12z is an excellent run TBH-

As Blue posted above- wedges are good news ...

image.png

14 days away but great eye candy for sure!!!

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GFS T324:

image.thumb.jpg.016d40fd34f494a5a13c9429235331fe.jpg

Deep FI of course.  But the fact that a model could churn this out, categorically refutes the idea the vortex is taking over in the trop and it's game over.  Everything is in the mix as we enter winter proper, and that includes the strat too, GEFS vortex ellipses at T384 from the 0z:

image.thumb.jpg.e969c44b7f498a003299900cb1696a30.jpg

8 below zero, signal growing, but still not reflected in the op output.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Pressure readings of about 1030-1035 over Greenland

image.thumb.png.d2319c728b55625043485332a5646a6f.png

FI or not, there must be something in the atmosphere/data making these powerful computers produce this, so it's possible even if it is the underdog option. For now

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That horrible word - potential - springs to mind!

image.thumb.png.2281b061069e2b72c716050228aecdaf.png

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Well this is a relief to see, Azores high wants to move into its usual winter position, but not so fast matey.😋

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.62a1226ef9374479e520dcbeff519507.png

 

gfs-0-186.thumb.png.94ecf7fd8f10ad53886c6894c74d64ea.png

 

And then we have this, some very cold air back over the country and bye bye Azores High!

 

gfs-0-240.thumb.png.ba477ac64f6e0c71da24f9bd2b24726c.png

 

gfs-0-360.thumb.png.7a935022781a78e98eeb773fee490d3f.png

 

gfs-1-336.thumb.png.fcd359dd478b20e56802cf273cbac05a.png

 

Should be nice and seasonal at least on this run.

 

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