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Paul

Model output discussion - late November

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I for one am pretty happy with the current output, if we can get a cold dry weekend with some frost and crisp sun followed by a toppling high giving some calm possibly freezing foggy conditions and then perhaps some heavy wintry showers blowing in on a strong nw wind then that’s a pretty cracking start to winter imo, especially as December is quite often a complete waste of time for a winter month. 
Bring it on I say 😊

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Looking at the ENS & that little trough I circled on the ICON 

B12BF54B-8210-48D8-9D3A-EDCDA730916E.thumb.jpeg.823eabfb0059c260cb69f5d1375b0c7d.jpeg

If that manages to sweep SW circa T162 ( shown on 4/5 GFS ENS ) then we can add another 36 hours to the cold spell with maybe some sleet / Snow in the ENE

Best case scenario here > One to watch out for 🙂 @shaky

93362826-89DF-4CC9-967E-F7994FA23D05.thumb.jpeg.9c35e34084c7ede9e327c6226759ece4.jpeg

Edited by Steve Murr

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Wow icon not backing down trying to bring proper easterly into the SE ,could be models overplayed the block sinking again.very interesting

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hummm interesting.

ICON digs the jet so far south at 168-180 that we manage to allow the high to wedge the cold better. Also nb the iberian low becoming more of a feature

Possible sleet / snow showers in the ESE

cold spell extended to 6-7 days via the ICON route

🧐🤔

7BB56708-707E-4229-9A8B-335CEF962A0C.thumb.jpeg.1517f813844765d8881d8cc2b26304c5.jpeg

Yes Steve I mentioned the day before that the GEM showed a similar evolution with that cut back over Poland/Germany reducing the sea track to the far SE

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2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Yes Steve I mentioned the day before that the GEM showed a similar evolution with that cut back over Poland/Germany reducing the sea track to the far SE

Its because the model ( ICON ) is placing more energy in then southern arm of the jet. This helps dig the atlantic trough further south at 156 & amplifies the jet North over Iberia squeezing the cold air west-

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its because the model ( ICON ) is placing more energy in then southern arm of the jet. This helps dig the atlantic trough further south at 156 & amplifies the jet North over Iberia squeezing the cold air west-

Very intriguing let's see what the likes of UKMO and GFS have to say!

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last one

NB the energy transferring to the south even on the 00z means troughs will dig better sustaining the pattern longer

C938D63C-4A60-4FF4-BBF6-BA6F5EE6641B.thumb.jpeg.8a9245783c9fdbd2d723ebf4728b9268.jpegCA667C20-F19A-4F92-ADF1-69EAFD982802.thumb.png.b9e670c7448a68381876aaa26fb54bbd.png

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According to the gfs there is a lot going on over the next two or three days with apparently the tpv moving to northern Canada and a further trough dropping into the western Atlantic, Which results in a strong thermal gradient over the Atlantic and a 170kt jet

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-5417600.thumb.png.dfdb57d6502b0791553990c4b467bd2e.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-5417600.thumb.png.2668a5862cf7475c67061692052fc734.png

All of which suppresses the ridge and the UK ending up in a strong westerly. All of this is of course subject to revision

162.thumb.png.37df9425382b00548231370d1e986ec1.png204.thumb.png.1b84ff392a0180d6c6ece209adf199bf.png

Edited by knocker

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Still more adjustments with the ext GEFS with two vortex lobes northern Canada and north of Scandinavia as the Russian high ridges strongly  Thus the trough associated with the former moves a tad west but still a strong westerly flow across the Atlantic, particularly in the east. This would suggest unsettled with temps a tad above average

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5936000.thumb.png.dcc02bbb089ce901d8fd8c35511f9cd9.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5936000.thumb.png.16ca50f008bac9dcfba02e00550a0791.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5936000.thumb.png.0958cf5267e736d76e32f41fe3641688.png

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The ecm has the frontal rain on Saturday into south Wales and further along the south coast

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-thickness_mslp_prcp6hr-5147600.thumb.png.dd1f1f62b06e3945eec713a9aad3e583.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c-5126000.thumb.png.56e2d041eeeeb68b937cc590097cef26.png

138.thumb.png.9304e4627b38cc86c0b5fedf50bbc08d.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c-5212400.thumb.png.c36c813c105e1dcc5fea0d599c43ecbd.png

Edited by knocker

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The ECM NH view is most interesting this morning in that the vortex never really establishes and is somewhat split . Take this at T+168 for example. Surely a good thing going forward?

 

0D7DC81E-12E4-486F-B0ED-184585BF14ED.png

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Looking at the Ecm 0z operational next week turns much milder as tropical maritime air feeds around the high building in across most of the uk.👍

192_thickuk.thumb.png.ed127fe5e159f25bdc69486a003708d6.png192_mslp850.thumb.png.1582d10691fcd61b2cad69dd10a9b0e3.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.7c3a6fb7af45c486f6b49de3e6c28a47.png216_mslp850.thumb.png.14d52564f7d99dc477f65a908471a5f4.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.a88edb37673c94c016c7aab26ced5564.png240_mslp850.thumb.png.4cd7b36a43b13b9aed25e96c3ea7411c.png

Edited by JON SNOW

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Not much change this morning. A colder air flow for 4-5 days looks the most likely but nothing close to out of the ordinary, with low probability of snow to the majority.

After D8 the GFS op pushes the HP cell train through the euro trough, flattening the UK region for around 4 days. This has good support from the GEFS. Still support for another toppler in FI but again nothing dramatic.

FI suggests the Pacific ridge no longer a player so upstream little help for Atlantic height rises. The Russian/Siberian High seems a theme so that may allow transient stalling in the Atlantic with the ebb and flow of the euro trough-Russian high interaction. However the high is mostly forecast as a shallow wave so a flatter NH profile looks the call as we enter early December.

ECM giving us an Arctic high D8-D10, the extreme of the GEFS, and maybe unlikely. Otherwise the key players similar to the GFS; Russian High, no Pacific Ridge and a flat UK sector as the higher pressure erodes the euro trough. Maybe some very very mild uppers arriving after the colder air:

ECM100-240.thumb.gif.535457159b3b8d94828bc7433a80a378.gif

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Good morning, peeps...

So, after the excitement offered by next weekend, even out in FI, the jet is decidedly buckled; the hardest part of any prediction would be, therefore, guessing where the buckles will be, exactly?🤔

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Anyways, I'll be on the farm, today...and, at least it'll be mild!:gathering:

Happy hunting!:oldgood:

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The ext EPS this morning has the Russian ridge peeking into Arctic dividing the Aleutian low and the twin vortex lobes northern Canada and Scandinavia. And a strong westerly exiting the eastern seaboard around a rather suppressed Atlantic subtropical high, Thus portending unsettled but not to forget the day to day variations as the airmasses phase in the flow

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5936000.thumb.png.653f038ebf0acd44077a7ad919f20e86.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5936000.thumb.png.6636c84ef6dd1ad43ef5c0256d9ea5f4.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5936000.thumb.png.b18763ee23e784274106e251030f8edf.png

Edited by knocker

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ECM  op was one of the mildest runs in the suite,after the semi reliable timeframe and the mildest of all at the end ,so maybe the icon idea of this colder spell lasting longer,might not be too far off.

Edited by SLEETY

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13 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

06z  ICON flatter and in line now with the other models

icon 6z flat.png

Indeed. 

But GFS slightly more amplified at 108. 

gfsnh-0-108.thumb.png.11b1df334a2ee9024fd1fcb5c0c456b2.png

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