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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
41 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Out of interest what sort of wind speeds would that low to the NE produce as I can imagine the wind chill will feel bitter where I'm going!

Icon keeping up the interest for us

Here's the gust chart for that time..

EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_120.thumb.jpg.bd93dc290a9a1b5db7fedbd08401dddd.jpg

70-80mph shown for the open waters just north of Scandinavia. 

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not a massive wedge however the -6c line still hanging on in the SE on the 174 chart

85AE919D-5B75-421B-A55C-836DE70F5C99.thumb.png.3016f71ee7a78af19870f21d0213af77.png

Steve is there any chance where the high could.topple in such a way where it could bring a surprise easterly instead?

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

HP topples in on Monday with the GFS18z but it still looks chilly on that day though at least. 

image.thumb.png.f88a314d53192795b19573421f423b82.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

HP topples in on Monday with the GFS18z but it still looks chilly on that day though at least. 

image.thumb.png.f88a314d53192795b19573421f423b82.png

It’s still pretty cold by Tuesday . 
 

Min and max temps up until 15:00 on Tuesday

D5DBD1BC-D68D-42AC-830C-384DC63B1A2E.png

5D5303BE-E657-47B6-92CD-AEF3FA708310.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

To me there's a lot to like about most of tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean as it shows a much colder spell on the way from later this week with frosts / ice / freezing fog!.. I'm happy to say on the cusp of winter it's going to be feeling wintry pretty soon!!!!!

 

 

Thanks for that Karl... The mean does trend higher towards day 10.. The extended 14 day ens show a gradual cooling off again. The mean for Scotland being around - 3C, and still below freezing much further south. So I feel at this stage only a temporary milder spell... Still no signs of significantly milder conditions.... I will take that... Long may it continue.

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not surprising to see the ec46 week 3 showing a broad scriceland low .....being a weeks mean, it likely backs up repeated pm incursions .....  how amplified would the Atlantic ridge become as it dumbbells around should this pattern verify ??

Yes, looks very good to me, even couldn't rule out pure Arctic incursions of 24-48 hours with an anomaly like that, it depends on ones expectations, where i have always had modest expectations of December, thinking any repeat of 2010 or anything anywhere near it very unlikely, what is tantalising me and frustrating me though is the SSW signal, so near yet so far, thinking being if we could destroy the strat vortex early on, we could have 2 whole months worth of opportunities in Jan and Feb, also as shown in charts lately, enough amplification shown to think a Dec 1990 (ie - one off short lived magnificent snow event) is possible even within a generally mobile pattern.

image.thumb.png.cf6362adbfedb9505817822d36f17233.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, looks very good to me, even couldn't rule out pure Arctic incursions of 24-48 hours with an anomaly like that, it depends on ones expectations, where i have always had modest expectations of December, thinking any repeat of 2010 or anything anywhere near it very unlikely, what is tantalising me and frustrating me though is the SSW signal, so near yet so far, thinking being if we could destroy the strat vortex early on, we could have 2 whole months worth of opportunities in Jan and Feb, also as shown in charts lately, enough amplification shown to think a Dec 1990 (ie - one off short lived magnificent snow event) is possible even within a generally mobile pattern.

image.thumb.png.cf6362adbfedb9505817822d36f17233.png

It would tie in with the Met long ranger . Now staying cold until around mid December. So the milder dross keeps getting pushed back , so that’s good news feb

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Downstream very important and likely assisting in PM outbreaks..

Yes, there is a chance showing at around D10 onwards but can we get this to tick down without something else flattening the pattern?

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

That low for Saturday still shown to remain to our south the recent Icon has trended it north but I suspect that it will trend south by morning. 

Saturday midday and midnight Sunday morning..

361897366_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_114(1).thumb.jpg.7f181539ffb90c92055802661c865eaf.jpg

1549822987_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_126(1).thumb.jpg.4c5a491f146ade2fe2d00c47295d57fc.jpg

GFS ensembles below..

1853698460_ens_image(2).thumb.png.f6f84c2420c167f7a2bee102973995ec.png

Upper air temperatures below average until atleast midweek next week then shown to pick up beyond that. After tomorrow to Thursday's wet conditions it's a drier scene. 

Gem..

89658045_ens_image(3).thumb.png.c561500c0058c8e6ad4a73983e031bf2.png

You can see bigger rainfall spikes than the Gfs in the short term that's due to tomorrow's very wet weather potential that I mentioned earlier then a drying trend too with upper air temperatures dipping below average then a recovery towards above average. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, there is a chance showing at around D10 onwards but can we get this to tick down without something else flattening the pattern?

Cheshire gap streamers heading straight for your doorstep.

image.thumb.png.3b8d71d7a9168aab45f8317c70cf4d0b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Happy with a high settling the weather down, but look at that vortex. Worrying IMO.

46606BD7-8F0B-441F-8602-BC9E3C0D84B2.png

It would only be worrying if it was going to stick there, but it ain't. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Cheshire gap streamers heading straight for your doorstep.

image.thumb.png.3b8d71d7a9168aab45f8317c70cf4d0b.png

Yeah, shame they would be of rain!

image.thumb.png.2ef6b81789ab2382efab61f7188fc47f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cheshire gap streamers heading straight for your doorstep.

image.thumb.png.3b8d71d7a9168aab45f8317c70cf4d0b.png

Yes i could add Buxton etc to my previous post- hilly aresd exposed to the NW winds might get pummeled .

possibly needing 300m at a rough guess.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I’ll take this in early December boys and girls

002D0931-F0D3-487D-8DFF-5945E32B0809.png

F0E53450-E33B-47C6-8DBB-0AD0021BE51C.png

B254FDC6-D150-4D54-A73D-58B02232EA16.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18z showing a very angry Atlantic - probably an excellent pattern for higher ground in NW Britain.

NW Scotland and hilly NI could get a pasting 2nd week of Dec..

Best setup for us northwesterly varying Northerly.

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

 

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Gets colder..

image.thumb.png.5bc76197bc72f1ed328c4f2648c2efa2.png

I'll take that run as a coldie-we get a decent cold dry spell and then a cold north westerly and potentially snow for some..

Certainly is getting colder for everyone

37F362B6-0CDF-4680-A6DB-5737B5C4FA57.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Best setup for us northwesterly varying Northerly.

If i was in NI and had decent altitude i would be getting quite interested in the way the models are trending..

There is scope for a decent wintry blast there, IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i could add Buxton etc to my previous post- hilly aresd exposed to the NW winds might get pummeled .

possibly needing 300m at a rough guess.

Hilly aresd exposed to the NW??? you should be careful of that..

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
33 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Here's the gust chart for that time..

EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_120.thumb.jpg.bd93dc290a9a1b5db7fedbd08401dddd.jpg

70-80mph shown for the open waters just north of Scandinavia. 

Looks to be around 50MPH where I'm going ouch! Good job I have a spa hotel to warm up in after Husky sledging and wandering the christmas markets! Thanks for the heads up!

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